Deontay Wilder Vs. Tyrrell Herndon: Odds, Records, Prediction

Forbes

21 hours ago

US boxer Deontay Wilder (R) knocks out Swedish-Finnish boxer Robert Helenius in the 1st round of ... More their 12-round WBC World Heavyweight Title Eliminator fight at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York, on October 15, 2022. (Photo by ANGELA WEISS / AFP) (Photo by ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images)
Deontay Wilder said he never thought about retiring. But the way he's performed in the ring lately, it appears he might never get back to where he wants to be. His fight on Friday against Tyrrell Herndon will perhaps give us some clues as to Wilder's immediate future (and whether he maybe should hang up his gloves for good). Here's everything you need to know about Deontay Wilder vs. Tyrrell Herndon, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.
Yes, Wilder got knocked out twice by Fury, but in those fights in 2020 and 2021, Wilder was competitive. He knocked down Fury multiple times, and a victory in both of those fights was well within reach for Wilder. But in his last two losses, vs. Joseph Parker and Zhilei Zhang, Wilder looked like a shell of his former self.
He could barely find the will to throw his powerful right hand, and his punch resistance had clearly been lessened. He lost a wide decision to Parker and then got knocked out by Zhang. There was plenty of speculation that Wilder would retire (and if he would have a path to the International Boxing Hall of Fame). But now Wilder said that retirement was never an option.
'It's not a comeback because I never retired — it's the return,' the former heavyweight titlist told Ring Magazine. 'I had to take a wellness check for my career and life in general. I sought a sports psychologist.
'I didn't tell my team about anything because, in my mind, I wanted to say that I was strong enough to get myself back together without anyone noticing anything. But unfortunately, that wasn't the case and I needed help. After my last fight, I understood that something was wrong with me. I am so much better now with my mindset — mentally, physically, emotionally. I'm physically healthy and have my mental health back, too.'
If boxing observers are looking to see what Wilder has left – especially considering Wilder said he still wants to unify the heavyweight division – it doesn't look like Herndon is the fighter to test him. He's mostly been a journeyman boxer, and he's lost to heavyweight prospects. If Wilder is anywhere near what he used to be, he should destroy Herndon.
But Herndon, who said he has been getting elite sparring and that he actually traveled out of state for a training camp for the first time, is excited about his chances.
'To finally have this moment come and full circle, I'm elated; I'm so ecstatic,' Herndon told KXXV. 'I'm past the unreal phase. It's like, OK, you know, it's time to fight next week, so it's time to rock and roll.'
Here's more info on the Deontay Wilder vs. Tyrrell Herndon showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on PPV.com for $24.99 beginning at 9 p.m. ET on Friday.
RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA - DECEMBER 23: Deontay Wilder and Joseph Parker exchange punches during the WBC ... More International & WBO Intercontinental Heavyweight title fight between Deontay Wilder and Joseph Parker during the Day of Reckoning: Fight Night at Kingdom Arena on December 23, 2023 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (Photo by)
Deontay Wilder vs. Tyrrell Herndon odds
Unsurprisingly, Wilder is an enormous betting favorite at -2200 (bet $2,200 to win $100), while Herndon is the +1000 underdog. Earlier this week, Wilder was -1600, so clearly bettors are still putting their money on him. The money line has no value, and I wouldn't even bother with Wilder at -800 to score a stoppage. To make any money, you're going to have to bet on Wilder winning in a particular round (+220 for the first round, +300 for the second round, +500 for the third round, etc.).
If you were looking for a fun parlay for this weekend's action of boxing (and this is only for entertainment purposes), I might take Wilder to stop Herndon at -800, Jake Paul to stop Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. at +137 and Floyd Schofield to beat Tevin Farmer at -190. If all those hit, you'd make a $307 profit on a $100 bet.
Deontay Wilder vs. Tyrrell Herndon records
It's been a rough ride for Wilder (43-4-1, 42 KOs) since 2020. He's lost four out of his last five fights, and he's been knocked out in three of those defeats, including his second and third fights vs. Tyson Fury and his matchup vs. Zhilei Zhang 13 months ago. Despite his recent losses, Wilder has had some good results in his career, including two victories against Luis Ortz, a first-round thrashing of Dominic Breazeale and a memorable knockout vs. Artur Szpilka.
Herndon (24-5, 15 KOs) is on a three-fight winning streak, but before you get too excited about that, know that the combined record of those opponents was 22-12-1. And Herndon won two of those bouts by split decision. Herndon doesn't have any notable victories, but he has lost to prospects like Richard Torrez Jr. and Efe Ajagaba in Ajagba's 2017 pro debut.
Deontay Wilder vs. Tyrrell Herndon prediction
I'm not sure I would pick Wilder to beat any heavyweight that's in the top-10 (or maybe in the top-20) of the division. But Herndon certainly isn't that. If Herndon gives Wilder problems, that will tell us quite a bit. But he won't. Look for Wilder to score a highlight-reel knockout and to continue on with his career. Say, Wilder by stoppage in the second round.