2025 The Open Championship: Chris 'The Bear' Fallica's Expert Picks, Best Bets
The 153rd Open Championship tees off this week from Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland, and I've got a few wagers I'm making before the tournament gets underway.
Let's dive into what I'm eyeing at the moment.
Outright and Top Finish Markets
Viktor Hovland outright winner, Top 10, Top 20
This has long felt to me like the major Hovland was most likely to win. The greens at The Open are not as slick as the ones Hovland faces in the U.S. Open or Masters and that's huge for him, since that's the weakest part of his game. Coming off a third-place finish at Oakmont where he very easily could have won, it seems like he's built up a bit of battle scars and is close to breaking through. Remember, he was the 54-hole leader at The Open in 2022 and had a couple of other top-15 finishes in the last few years. If you're looking for someone other than Scottie, Rory or Rahm, he's a great place to land.
PICKS: Viktor Hovland (+3000) to win outrightViktor Hovland (+280) Top-10 finishViktor Hovland (+130) Top-20 finish
Sepp Straka Top 20, Top 30
Surprisingly, Straka has missed all three cuts in majors this year, but this seems to be the one he's played best in lately, finishing T-22 last year and T-2 in 2023 behind Brian Harman. His top-10 in Scotland last week should have him ready for a good effort this week.
PICKS:Sepp Straka (+150) Top-20 finishSepp Straka (+105) Top-30 finish
Matt Fitzpatrick Top 20, Top 30
Maybe it's been the change on the bag, but whatever it is has resulted in Fitzpatrick playing his best golf since winning the U.S. Open. He hasn't missed a cut in an individual event since before the Masters, which is also his last finish outside the top 40. Sure, nobody is going to confuse the tracks at the Travelers or Rocket Classic (where he posted top-20s) for major-level courses, but that T-4 last week at the Renaissance sure has a lot of people excited over his chances this week.
PICKS: Matt Fitzpatrick (+150) Top-20 finishMatt Fitzpatrick (+120) Top-30 finish
Padraig Harrington top 30
Harrington has made the cut in each of the last two years at The Open. He finished T-22 last year and in 2022, he actually opened with a 69 before shooting 78 in the second round. At a course he's familiar with, and with bad weather looming, I wouldn't be surprised if he's playing the weekend and posting a fringe finish.
PICK: Padraig Harrington (+285) Top-30 finish
Cam Young Top 20, Top 30
Everyone's favorite non-winner posted another top-5 finish at a major last month at Oakmont — that's three now and six top-10s all told. Two have come at The Open, so he clearly isn't affected by the conditions. I'll back him again to play well in a major here.
PICKS:Cam Young (+260) Top-20 finishCam Young (+165) Top-30 finish
Chris Gotterup Top 20, Top 30
We should have seen the win coming at some point. Actually, here's a funny story: I bet Gotterup to win the John Deere the previous week, so I was a week early. In his last 10 tourneys, he's missed one cut (Canada) and has five top-20s, with his worst finish in the other four tourneys he made the cut being 28th. I think he's mispriced in the derivative markets, including Make/Miss Cut and I'd be surprised if he didn't play well this week. Remember, he played very well at Oakmont, posting two sub-70 rounds and finishing 23rd.
PICKS: Chris Gotterup (+250) Top-20 finishChris Gotterup (+140) Top-30 finish
Matchups
Padraig Harrington vs. Phil Mickelson
Mickelson has missed all three cuts in majors this year and seven of 10 since the runner-up finish out of nowhere in the 2023 Masters. He hasn't even shot even par in a major championship round since the opening round of the 2023 U.S. Open. That's 21 straight rounds over par.
PICK: Padraig Harrington (-125) vs. Phil Mickelson
Chris Gotterup vs. Ben Griffin
Griffin's red-hot run came to an end with a missed cut at the John Deere, but maybe the little break will treat him well. He's posted top-10s in both the U.S. Open and PGA Championship but now faces a different challenge at Portrush. In his two Open appearances, he's missed the cut both times and went 79-74 last year.
PICK: Chris Gotterup (+105) vs. Ben Griffin
Viktor Hovland vs. Collin Morikawa
Something just seems off with Morikawa this year. His play around and on the green has been poor, and after a second round 76 and MC last week, I'm not sure I want to back him here. He's missed the cut two of the last three years here since winning the Claret Jug in 2021.
PICK: Viktor Hovland (-115) vs. Collin Morikawa
Make/Miss Cut
Dustin Johnson to miss cut
DJ has missed all three cuts in majors this year and six of the last eight, dating back to 2023. None of his six rounds have even been even par. He seems content financially on the LIV Tour, and while he did make the cut last year win the Open, I don't see many signs he's going to thrive this week.
PICK: Dustin Johnson (-110) to miss cut
Hideki Matsuyama to miss cut
I'm willing to take the big number here on a miss with Hideki, as he missed the cut at the PGA, made the cut on the number at Oakmont and has been off since the Rocket Classic. He's had some lingering injuries this year and struggled off the tee and with his second shot as a result. The conditions at Portrush do not appear to be the spot those issues get remedied.
PICK: Hideki Matsuyama (+174) to miss cut
Justin Thomas to miss cut
Speaking of struggling off the tee, enter JT who has never been a good player here. Only once has he finished in the top 30 in the Open and missed the cut in three of his eight trips. Last year was a wild ride as he went 68-78-67-77. He shot 82 in the 2023 opening round as well. Buckle up. Some big numbers are possible here.
PICK: Justin Thomas (+200) to miss cut
Aldrich Potgieter to miss cut
I wonder if there's a physical issue here with Potgieter as he W/D from the John Deere and then missed the cut at the Scottish Open. He had a great two-week stretch, winning the Rocket Classic and finishing sixth at the Schwab, but he's missed ten cuts in 16 events, including eight of the last 12 since his runner-up in Mexico.
PICK: Aldrich Potgieter (-116) to miss cut
Sungjae Im to miss cut
Im is in terrible form right now, entering off consecutive missed cuts, a T-61 finish at the Travelers and a T-57 at the U.S. Open. His last top 10 came at the Masters, and in between he's missed cuts at the PGA and Canadian Open as well. Out of nowhere, he did finish T-7 last year at the Open with a 66-69 weekend, but he's 158th on TOUR Tee-to-green and 161st in GIR. His putting edge is muted on the Open greens.
PICK: Sungjae Im (+120) to miss cut
Henrik Stenson to miss cut
The 2018 Champion Golfer of the Year has missed the cut three of the last four years here and is nowhere near the level of player he once was.
PICK: Henrik Stenson (-164) to miss cut
Phil Mickelson to miss cut
As mentioned above, Mickelson has missed all three cuts in majors this year and seven of 10 since the runner-up finish out of nowhere in the 2023 Masters. He hasn't even shot even par in a major championship round since the opening round of the 2023 U.S. Open. That's 21 straight rounds over par.
PICK: Phil Mickelson (-166) to miss cut
Tony Finau to miss cut
Finau missed The Open cut in each of the last two years and missed in Augusta this year. He appeared headed for that at Oakmont as well, but a late clutch putt in Round 2 allowed him to make it on the number.
PICK: Tony Finau (+125) to miss cut
Collin Morikawa to miss cut
As mentioned earlier, he's missed the cut two of the last three years here and he just hasn't looked fully locked in this year.
PICK: Collin Morikawa (+275) to miss cut
Cam Smith to miss cut
The 2022 champ has four rounds of 75 or worse in his last eight major rounds, meaning he's missed the cut in four straight majors. I can see him taking the scenic way around the course this week.
PICK: Cam Smith (+115) to miss cut
Ludvig Aberg to miss cut
We all think Aberg is headed for great things, but his major career outside of Augusta is pretty spotty right now. He's got a runner-up and a seventh-place finish in the Masters, but in his other five slams, he's missed the cut four times, including last year at the Open when he went 75-76. For those willing to take an optimistic approach, he did finish T-8 in Scotland last week.
PICK: Ludvig Aberg (+245) to miss cut
Russell Henley to miss cut
Henley has put together a really solid season. He won at Bay Hill and has seven other top 10 finishes. Oddly, he failed to play the weekend at both Augusta and Quail Hollow. He's gotten some buzz this week after a T-5 last year at the Open, but his Open record prior to that was really subpar. It included five missed cuts, one top 20 in nine events.
PICK: Russell Henley (+220) to miss cut
Jon Rahm to miss cut
Rahm has gotten off to a shaky start in the last few Opens but has played brilliantly the rest of the way to go T-7, T-2, T-34, T-3 in the Open. He's been widely touted to win this week, but isn't there a small part of you that can see him just miserable if he catches the worst of the weather, which right now is slated to be Thursday afternoon and Friday AM?
PICK: Jon Rahm (+475) to miss cut
Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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