Will Q2 Results Move Las Vegas Sands' Stock Up?

Forbes

15-07-2025

SINGAPORE - JULY 29: Marina Bay Sands is seen on 29 July 2017, in Singapore, Singapore. (Photo by ...)
Las Vegas Sands stock (NYSE: LVS), a casino and resort company operating in Macau and Singapore, is scheduled to announce its fiscal second-quarter earnings on Wednesday, July 23, 2025. Analysts are forecasting that the company will report adjusted earnings of $0.53 per share alongside $2.82 billion in sales. This would reflect a 10% decrease in earnings and a 2% increase in sales compared to the previous year's figures of $0.59 per share and $2.76 billion, respectively. Investors will closely monitor the company's performance against ongoing challenges, such as macroeconomic pressures and tariff issues. Historical data indicates that the stock has risen 60% of the time on the day following earnings announcements, with a median gain of 4.6% and maximum one-day positive returns reaching 11%. In a separate context, consider the potential for growth in Google Stock To $350?
In Q1 2025, Las Vegas Sands posted adjusted EPS of $0.59, surpassing estimates, supported by record EBITDA at Marina Bay Sands. Revenue totaled $2.86 billion, slightly under expectations, with weakness in Macau counterbalancing Singapore's strength. The company currently has a market capitalization of $35 billion. Revenue for the past twelve months was $11 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $2.4 billion in operating profits and net income of $1.3 billion. While much will hinge on how the results compare to consensus and expectations, awareness of historical patterns could tilt the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two approaches to achieve this: understand the historical probabilities and prepare your position before the earnings announcement, or analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings and adjust your position accordingly after the earnings are announced. That being said, if you are looking for upside with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and delivering returns exceeding 91% since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks.
LVS' Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Additional information regarding the 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are compiled along with the statistics in the table below.
LVS 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively lower-risk strategy (though not effective if the correlation is minimal) entails comprehending the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identifying a pair with the highest correlation, and executing the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D indicate the strongest correlation, a trader can set themselves to go "long" for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and following 5D returns.
LVS Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
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