
Why two justices could hand Republicans their own ‘Ginsburg moment' next year
That could be the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections if Democrats have any say in the matter.
With next year's congressional elections still on the horizon, the first glimpses of the political dynamics that will shape 2026 are coming into view. Even as Donald Trump and his administration remain this week consumed by an uproar among the MAGA base over the handling of the Jeffrey Epstein investigation, issues like inflation and the White House's mass deportation raids continue to retain salience quietly in the background — quietly, but not with diminished importance, as they'll likely remain the top factors driving Americans to the polls.
Then, there's the Supreme Court. It remains a sore point for liberals who watched Republicans lock Barack Obama out of the discussion over a vacant seat in 2016 and then, in 2020, watched Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death just two months before a presidential election notch a second rightward shift for the court in less than a decade.
Justice Clarence Thomas, 77, is the oldest member of the bench. Some conservatives have privately begun to fret that the right-leaning justice or his 75-year-old colleague, Samuel Alito (whose wife hung a symbol honoring the January 6 conspiracy after the attack) could cause another 'Ginsburg moment' by refusing to resign while Republicans control the Senate, allowing one or both seats to fall into liberal hands.
Legal commentators are somewhat torn over whether either will retire this term. Mike Davis, a former Senate GOP staffer on Supreme Court nominations and current 'viceroy' of Trumpworld, wrote that Alito was 'gleefully packing up his chambers' after the 2024 election.
Ed Whelan, the Antonin Scalia chair in constitutional studies at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, also predicted in 2025 that Alito would retire in 2025, and Thomas in 2026, according to the American Bar Association Journal (ABAJournal).
Others are less certain, and a source close to Alito tried to tamp down on that speculation earlier this year.
"Despite what some people may think, this is a man who has never thought about this job from a political perspective," they told the Wall Street Journal.
"The idea that he's going to retire for political considerations is not consistent with who he is," the source added.
David Lat, who founded his own blog reporting on gossip surrounding the Court and broader legal world, also noted to ABAJournal that both justices have hired full rosters of clerks for the upcoming two terms, the latter of which will end in 2027.
Under Donald Trump's first term, three Supreme Court vacancies were filled by conservative justices. Ginsberg's refusal to retire at multiple points when multiple factors were clear, including how her health challenges were affecting her work and the likelihood that Republicans would bend the rules (or shatter them) to see her seat filled with a conservative, is still looked by many as a failure of not just the justice but those liberals around her who allowed the octogenarian's desire to stay on the job conflict with political realities.
Her defenders insisted that the justice's deliberations about retiring did not factor in politics at all. Critics of the Court see the justices' shroud of apoliticism as an excuse that does not match their rhetoric or actions, either on the bench or in public.
The efforts by Alito's allies to dissuade speculation echoed those same defenses and rang especially hollow for the conservative justice who has shmoozed with a conservative billionaire with cases before the court and who reportedly authored his own blueprint for the eventual overturn of Roe vs Wade as far back as 1985.
Thomas, meanwhile, reportedly sparked fears among conservatives that he would resign from the Court on his own way back in 2000 as he complained about the job's pay. But there's been no such murmuring as of late.
If the claims are true and both justices are set on remaining on the bench, they could put Republicans in an awkward spot.
The GOP's chances of protecting their newly-acquired Senate majority remain strong but have grown noticeably weaker in the past six months. The announced retirement of Thom Tillis in North Carolina puts his purple-seat state decidedly in play. Maine's Susan Collins is up for re-election, as is John Cornyn in Texas; Cornyn faces a hyper-MAGA primary challenger whom the senator has said could give up the seat to Democrats in November of 2026 if his primary challenge is successful.
Rumors also continue to swirl about the possible retirement of Joni Ernst, the senator from Iowa, and her partner in the Senate delegation from the state, Chuck Grassley, is a staggering 91 years old himself.
Several factors could force the Senate back into Democratic hands next year, and if the party's discussions over countering GOP redistricting in Texas by 'going nuclear' and following suit across a range of blue states is any indication, the party's members have learned not to give Republicans an inch and could block any of Trump's SCOTUS nominations going forward.
In the end, the same shaky apoliticism that the justices cling to when facing any criticism from Congress or the Executive Branch could swing back to help the left, after causing so much damage at the end of the Obama era. It would be up to Democrats in the Senate to decide whether they are truly willing to take a page from the GOP's playbook.
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Reuters
22 minutes ago
- Reuters
Exclusive: Indian firm shipped explosives to Russia despite US warnings
WASHINGTON/KYIV/NEW DELHI, July 24 (Reuters) - An Indian company shipped $1.4 million worth of an explosive compound with military uses to Russia in December, according to Indian customs data seen by Reuters, despite U.S. threats to impose sanctions on any entity supporting Russia's Ukraine war effort. One of the Russian companies listed as receiving the compound, known as HMX or octogen, is the explosives manufacturer Promsintez, which an official at Ukraine's SBU security service said has ties to the country's military. The official said that Ukraine launched a drone attack in April against a Promsintez-owned factory. According to the Pentagon's Defense Technical Information Center and related defense research programs, HMX is widely used in missile and torpedo warheads, rocket motors, exploding projectiles and plastic-bonded explosives for advanced military systems. The U.S. government has identified HMX as "critical for Russia's war effort" and has warned financial institutions against facilitating any sales of the substance to Moscow. The HMX sale to Russian firms has not been previously reported. Russian defense manufacturers have been working around the clock for the past several years to sustain President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine, which intensified with Russia's full-scale invasion of its neighbor in 2022. India, which has recently forged closer ties with the United States in an effort to counterbalance China's growing influence, has not abandoned its longstanding military and economic ties with Moscow. India's trade with Russia - especially its purchases of Russian oil - has remained robust, even as Western nations have tried to cripple Russia's war economy with sanctions. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened earlier in July to hit nations with a 100% tariff if they continued purchasing Russian crude. The U.S. Treasury Department has the authority to sanction those who sell HMX and similar substances to Russia, according to three sanctions lawyers. HMX is known as a "high explosive," meaning it detonates rapidly and is designed for maximum destruction. Reuters has no indication that the HMX shipments violated Indian government policy. One Indian official with knowledge of the shipments said that the compound has some limited civilian applications, in addition to its better-known military uses. India's foreign ministry said in a statement: "India has been carrying out exports of dual-use items taking into account its international obligations on non-proliferation, and based on its robust legal and regulatory framework that includes a holistic assessment of relevant criteria on such exports." The U.S. State Department did not comment on the specific shipments identified by Reuters but said it had repeatedly communicated to India that companies doing military-related business are at risk of sanctions. "India is a strategic partner with whom we engage in full and frank dialogue, including on India's relationship with Russia," a spokesperson said. "We have repeatedly made clear to all our partners, including India, that any foreign company or financial institution that does business with Russia's military industrial base are at risk of U.S. sanctions." Russia's defense ministry did not respond to a request for comment. "While India has not typically been among the primary jurisdictions used for circumventing sanctions, we are aware that isolated cases can occur," Ukrainian presidential adviser Vladyslav Vlasiuk told Reuters. "We can confirm that the Russian company Promsintez has appeared on our radar in the past, including in connection with cooperation involving Indian counterparts," added Vlasiuk, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's top sanctions official. Reuters identified two HMX shipments sent in December by Indian firm Ideal Detonators Private Limited, both of which were unloaded in St. Petersburg, according to the Indian customs data. An Indian government official with direct knowledge of the shipments confirmed them. One shipment, worth $405,200, was purchased by a Russian company called High Technology Initiation Systems, the data show. The other shipment, worth more than $1 million was purchased by Promsintez. Both purchasers are based in Samara Oblast, near the border of Kazakhstan in southern Russia, according to the data. Ideal Detonators Private Limited, based in the Indian state of Telangana, did not respond to a request for comment. Promsintez and High Technology Initiation Systems also did not respond to requests for comment. While several Indian entities were sanctioned during the administration of former U.S. President Joe Biden for supporting Russia's war effort, sanctions were applied sparingly due to geopolitical considerations, according to two U.S. officials who worked on sanctions under Biden. Under Trump, Russia-related sanctions work has slowed to a trickle, and it is not clear if the United States will take further action against Indian companies doing business with Russia's defense industry. Washington has long sought closer relations with India to pull the South Asian country away from China. Eric Prince, a partner at Washington-based law firm Akin, said the U.S. government often prefers to communicate its concerns privately to allies and only take punitive actions as a last resort.


Daily Mail
24 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
Ghislaine Maxwell to release bombshell new evidence as Epstein deposition footage reemerges
Ghislaine Maxwell is expected to unveil 'new evidence' during her jailhouse meeting with the Justice Department. The revelation came as resurfaced footage showed Jeffrey Epstein responding to questions about Donald Trump and underage girls. Maxwell will personally meet with a top Justice Department official at a federal prison in Florida where she is serving a 20-year sentence for helping Epstein traffic young women. Her brother Ian told The New York Post on Wednesday that she will be providing 'new evidence' regarding Epstein. 'She will be putting before that court material new evidence that was not available to the defense at her 2021 trial, which would have had a significant impact on its outcome,' Ian Maxwell said. Ghislaine Maxwell, 63, did not testify in her defense at her 2021 trial which saw her convicted in over her role in a scheme to sexual exploit and abuse multiple minor girls with Epstein over the course of a decade. Her discussions with the White House came as a torrent of information on the Epstein saga continued to get blasted across traditional outlets and social media. Liberal podcasters MeidasTouch posted video Wednesday of a 2010 deposition in which Epstein was asked about Trump but is largely evasive. 'Have you ever had a personal relationship with Donald Trump?' Epstein is asked by a lawyer representing an underaged victim. 'What do you mean by 'personal relationship,' sir?' he replies. 'Have you socialized with him?' the questioner continues. 'Yes, sir,' he admits. 'Have you ever socialized with Donald Trump in the presence of females under the age of 18?' the lawyer persists. 'Though I'd like to answer that question, at least today I'm going to have to assert my Fifth, Sixth, and 14th Amendment rights, sir,' he replies. The Fifth Amendment protects individuals from being forced to testify against themselves in a criminal case, while the Sixth and 14th involve other individual protections under the law. Epstein invoked the fifth on all questions he was asked during the deposition. However his response to the Trump questions appeared unique. 🚨🚨🚨 Watch Jeffrey Epstein plead his Fifth, Sixth, and 14th Amendment rights when asked if he and Donald Trump socialized with females under the age of 18 during a 2010 deposition: Q: Have you ever had a personal relationship with Donald Trump? A. What do you mean by "personal… — MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) July 24, 2025 has reached out to the White House for comment. The story of the deceased billionaire pedophile has plagued the Trump administration after the botched release of the so-called 'Epstein files' - which the president now claims is a Democrat-led hoax. Attorney General Pam Bondi is facing Democratic calls to testify before Congress following The Wall Street Journal's revelation that she told Trump that his name appeared in the files of the sex-trafficking investigation. Earlier this week, Ghislaine's brother Ian Maxwell revealed her sister's frame of mine in the wake of the botched release of the files. Ian Maxwell communicates regularly with her sister in jail on the phone and told The Times she fears for her safety. 'Prisons are very dangerous places and we know from Ghislaine that there are serious staff shortages and more dangerous higher-risk-category prisoners now being admitted to … Tallahassee,' said Maxwell. 'For sure she remains at great, if not greater, risk and has expressed her real concerns about this to me.' He also said his older sister believes that Epstein may have been murdered, contradicting the DOJ and FBI's belief in the official theory that he committed suicide. 'There were certainly a number of convicted murderers on the wing in [Metropolitan Correctional Center] New York where Epstein died,' Maxwell said. 'The contemporaneous investigation of Epstein's death was cut short, cursory and frankly shoddy, certainly as regards the duty guards' story the night he died. At least one distinguished, independent forensic pathologist concurred with the Epstein family-appointed pathologist that homicide was more likely than suicide,' he added. He added that the pathologist from the New York Medical Examiner's office never examined the body. 'I think despite the DOJ memo concluding that Epstein died by suicide, there must remain serious doubts and the jury remains out about that.' Ian Maxwell's take was that President Trump and others would be 'pleased' by the suicide verdict. 'The principal casualties here are truth and justice and my sister's freedom,' he said. 'That's the reality and it should make all right-thinking people seethe with anger. We remain ever hopeful that the truth of the 'hoax', as President Trump now refers to it, comes out.' Ian Maxwell also 'welcomes total discourse' and the complete public release of the FBI files. Ghislaine Maxwell, 63, is the only person behind bars - serving 20 years on child sex trafficking charges - despite the fact that pedophile Jeffrey Epstein allegedly controlled a web of underage girls. Additionally, Epstein's victims alleged they were passed around as sex toys to his wealthy friends and billionaire business associates who regularly visited his homes including his private island, Little Saint James. A source said: 'Despite the rumors, Ghislaine was never offered any kind of plea deal. She would be more than happy to sit before Congress and tell her story. 'No-one from the government has ever asked her to share what she knows. She remains the only person to be jailed in connection to Epstein and she would welcome the chance to tell the American public the truth.' What that 'truth' is remains to be seen. Maxwell was convicted in 2022 over her role in a scheme to sexual exploit and abuse multiple minor girls with Epstein over the course of a decade. Maxwell argues she should have been protected from prosecution as part of a Non Prosecution Agreement made by Epstein - her former lover and boss - in 2007 when he agreed to plead guilty to two minor charges of prostitution in a 'sweetheart deal' which saw him spend little time behind bars. And now, controversy continues to rage over the Department of Justice's statement that there is no Epstein 'client list' and the release of videos from inside New York's Metropolitan Correctional Center which the DOJ says proves he committed suicide in 2019 while being held in jail on sex trafficking charges. Critics have pointed to the fact that there is a crucial minute missing from the jail house video that also does not show the door or, indeed, the inside of Epstein's jail cell. The scandal - and alleged 'cover up' - has prompted a rebellion amongst President Trump's loyal MAGA base. Some even believe Bondi should be fired after promising to release all files relating to Epstein and his high-profile male friends only to apparently renege on that promise. On Wednesday, it was revealed that Bondi told Trump his name was among many high-profile figures mentioned in the files, which the Justice Department this month said it would not be releasing despite a clamor from online sleuths, conspiracy theorists and members of Trump's base. Trump´s personal ties to Epstein are well-established and his name is already known to have been included in records related to the wealthy financier, who killed himself in jail in 2019 as he awaited trial on sex trafficking charges. The Justice Department declined to comment on the report but issued a joint statement from Bondi and Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche saying that investigators had reviewed the records and 'nothing in the files warranted further investigation or prosecution.' 'As par of our routine briefing, we made the president aware of the findings,' the statement said. The mere inclusion of a person's name in Epstein's files does not imply wrongdoing and he was known to have been associated with multiple prominent figures, including Trump. Over the years, thousands of pages of records have been released through lawsuits, Epstein´s criminal dockets, public disclosures and Freedom of Information Act requests. They include a 2016 deposition in which an accuser recounted she spent several hours with Epstein at Trump´s Atlantic City casino but didn´t say if she met Trump and did not accuse him of any wrongdoing. Trump has also said he once thought Epstein was a 'terrific guy' but they later had a falling-out.


The Guardian
an hour ago
- The Guardian
Joe Rogan anoints a new progressive star – can James Talarico triumph in Texas?
In late May, four of Texas's top Democrats convened on Zoom to strategize about the 2026 election. The upcoming Republican primary battle for Senate pits incumbent senator John Cornyn against the state's more right-leaning attorney general, Ken Paxton, and is expected to be bruising – greasing the skids for a potential Democratic pickup. With governor, attorney general and lieutenant governor also in play, the question the liberal quartet aimed to answer was whether they might divvy up these contests, thereby avoiding a contentious primary of their own. On the call were three fixtures of Lone Star Democratic politics: Beto O'Rourke, Colin Allred and Representative Joaquin Castro. Less well-known was the fourth man, a 36-year-old member of the state's house of representatives from Austin's district 50 named James Talarico. A former middle-school language arts teacher and aspiring Presbyterian minister with the earnest demeanor and yearbook-ready countenance of a young Ron Howard, Talarico had begun his political career in 2018, flipping a swing district to become the youngest member of the house. A good bit greener than his colleagues, Talarico seemed an unlikely aspirant for the Senate run. Then along came Joe Rogan. The world's most influential podcast host had learned of Talarico from comedian Brian Simpson, who had been awestruck by a viral clip of the state senator taking a Republican colleague to task for her 'idolatrous' bill forcing public schools to display the Ten Commandments. A producer reached out, and within a few weeks the virtually unknown official was stepping into Rogan's Austin studio to offer his gloss on the radical teachings of Jesus. If the conversation was friendly – about two hours in, Rogan was practically begging Talarico to run for president – the reviews from Rogan's right-leaning, MMA-loving fanboys were less so. Many took particular issue with Talarico's reading of the Bible as arguably pro-choice or at least ambivalent about abortion. Even so, Daniel had entered the lion's den and held his own. Within hours of the show's airing, Politico was enthusing that 'Joe Rogan's Latest Guest Might Turn Texas Blue' and Talarico's beaming choirboy mug was front and center on the Drudge Report. 'I learned this when I flipped the Trump district at the beginning of my career,' Talarico said. 'It's almost like asking someone on a date, or any relationship in your life – you have to put effort into it. If we're not going to make the effort to show up in these places where people are, then we can't be surprised when they don't make the effort to get off the couch and vote for us.' The week marked a notable turnaround for a politician who just a few years ago hit what he calls his political 'rock bottom'. It was the fall of 2021, a year that had begun with the January 6 insurrection and a catastrophic winter storm that killed hundreds of Texans. Meanwhile, 'Maga' was ascendant in the Lone Star state. Officials rammed through the nation's most unforgiving abortion ban, legalized permitless carry and implemented a new civics curriculum Talarico describes as a 'historical whitewash'. Then came an aggressive attempt to curtail voting rights that led him and dozens of Democratic lawmakers to flee the state in an attempt to deny the legislature a quorum. After 38 days, Talarico was among a handful who saw the writing on the wall and returned to Austin. As he explained in a lengthy op-ed, Texas Democrats held a dwindling stack of cards, and Congress would need to address the problem at the federal level. (The House delivered, but the bill failed in the Senate due to opposition from senators Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema.) Despite Talarico's hopes that ending the standoff might preserve a modicum of bipartisanship, it was not to be. In October, the legislature voted to redraw the state's congressional districts – an attempt to dilute the political power of Black and Latino voters and 'kill me off politically', he said. 'Walking on to that floor and realizing that my [Republican] colleagues weren't looking me in the eye, I felt like I had lost hope, not just in my colleagues and the institution, but in whether democracy was even possible in such polarized and divided times. It was my lowest point in public service so far.' Overcoming an urge to pack it in, he opted to fight. As it happened, a seat in solid-blue Austin, where he'd grown up, was open. Talarico moved home and won handily. (Now, Texan Republicans are contemplating another redistricting as a way to further dilute the Democratic vote. 'Clearly their gerrymandering didn't hold from five years ago, and so now they're having to get back in there and do some touch-ups and fortifying,' Talarico said.) Following his crisis of political faith, he made another critical life decision, enrolling in the seminary with the goal of becoming a minister. 'Jesus gave us these two commandments, to love God and love your neighbor,' he explained, noting that he considers his political career a vehicle for doing the latter. Now he understood: the two injunctions went hand in hand. Getting in touch with God, 'or whatever you consider to be the ground of your being', is what Talarico says makes love of neighbor sustainable. 'Whether that's in public service, as a teacher or a nurse or a firefighter or a police officer, or whether it's with activism or volunteering or just being a good person in your community, it is difficult and sometimes exhausting work, and that's why we have to be connected to something deeper.' An outspoken progressive Christian is something of a unicorn in today's political environment – a sign not only of the secularism that has characterized the Democratic party since the Reagan years but of the ever-increasing ties between the far right and the evangelical movement. Perhaps nowhere is this alliance more pronounced than in Texas, where the last legislative session saw a flurry of bills that would, among other things, allow prayer in public schools, fund parochial schools with taxpayer money and outlaw the provision of litter boxes for students – an actual bill based on a debunked rightwing hoax. The latter proposal stalled after Talarico's polite if methodical humiliation of the bill's author became one of his many viral TikToks; the others, including the Ten Commandments bill, became law. Talarico has done more than simply oppose what he considers to be bad legislation. He regularly calls out fossil fuel barons Tim Dunn and Farris Wilks, who backed the legislative crusade. 'They basically own every Republican member of the state senate,' he said, noting that they are by far the state's biggest political donors. 'They own a majority of Republicans in the state house. They own every statewide elected official. And they run a massive network of thinktanks and advocacy organizations and media outlets. So their empire has really taken over state government. And they have a pretty extreme theocratic vision for for the state and the country.' Asked whether a Handmaid's Tale-style dystopia seemed possible, he said, 'We're a lot closer than people think.' Talarico defines the effort to wed government with biblical ideology as Christian nationalism, 'the worship of power – social power, economic power, political power, in the name of Christ', as he put it in a 2023 guest sermon. Accusing adherents of turning Jesus 'into a gun-toting, gay-bashing, science-denying, money-loving, fear-mongering fascist,' he declared it 'incumbent on all Christians to confront it and denounce it'. Posted to YouTube, the sermon has since garnered 1m views. The question now is not merely whether Talarico can translate that kind of social media buzz into votes but whether he wants to. He expects to obtain his master's in divinity next year, and he often speaks of his desire to one day take over the ministry at his home church, St Andrew's Presbyterian. But a slight detour to the US Senate seems increasingly possible – an indication of his growing popularity and ambition as well as a notable vibe shift on the left. A recent poll found that 62% of Democrats wanted their party's leadership replaced. And a strong contingent has shown a hunger for candidates, such as Talarico, who are willing to lean into progressive values without apology (he has, for example, mounted a forceful defense of gender-affirming care for trans kids). While Talarico makes a strong case for the undercurrent of wealth redistribution inherent in Jesus' teachings, he doesn't call himself a socialist – certainly not in Texas. Still it's not hard to see parallels between his meteoric rise and that of New York City's socialist mayoral hopeful, Zohran Mamdani, another young state legislator whose online savvy, bold progressivism and evident sincerity have endeared him to liberal voters. (In 2019, Talarico walked across his 25-mile district – nearly double the distance of Mamdani's recent Manhattan hike.) For Talarico, the key to winning over the electorate is authenticity. 'Voters can sniff out that consultant-driven messaging,' he said. 'The poll-tested stuff is just not going to cut it.' Moreover, voters are spoiling for a fight. One quality they appreciated in Trump, he said, was the aggression he'd shown on behalf of his vision, however malevolent. Democrats, he said, need to bring that kind of energy to the fight for a better world. And while Jesus Christ was famous for his humility and pacifism, Talarico noted, he was also an uncompromising radical who could tap into a combative side when needed. 'If we are doing our best to mimic Jesus, being kind and humble and meek are all part of it,' he said. 'But when the powerful are abusing people, we have to stand in the way, and that requires courage and bravery, and speaking truth to power.' In late June, Talarico appeared at a town hall in San Antonio alongside Castro and O'Rourke, a show of unity before what may well turn into a heated primary race. Befitting his status as the youngest and least seasoned politician on the stage, he spoke first. But as Talarico recalled the story of Jesus's cleansing of the temple, when he ejected the money-changers and merchants from the Lord's house, he didn't sound like a man inclined meekly to wait his turn to run for higher office. 'To those who love democracy, to those who love our neighbors,' he proclaimed, 'it's time to start flipping tables.' As for the Senate race, Talarico is praying on it. He'll make a decision this summer, he said.