Can the Josh Kraft campaign be saved?
I would have guessed he was down 20 points, not 30.
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Before I get to the underwhelming Kraft campaign, let's give Wu her due. Her
She has since moved very effectively to consolidate her support within a broad swath of constituencies. If you heard a few months ago that
And her attacks on Kraft as a
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I've never thought of Wu as enjoying Menino-level popularity or popular affection, but maybe that perception is outdated. She's never felt the love she's getting right now.
Her campaign could hardly be going any better.
Team Kraft responded to the bombshell poll with standard campaign bravado.
'Josh didn't get into the Mayor's race because of what polling says, and nothing has changed his focus on continuing to show up in Boston neighborhoods, talk to residents, and listen to the concerns of many people who are disappointed with this Mayor and the direction the city is going,' his campaign said in a statement. 'The entire campaign team is confident that as residents learn more about Josh, his background of service, and his ideas for the future of Boston, the numbers will move in his direction.'
Note that nowhere does this statement dispute the poll's findings.
What this poll lays bare is that nothing the Kraft campaign is doing is working.
From the outset, it has placed its faith in the belief that Wu is unlikable. And that there is enough disgust around issues like bike lanes and the
But they are clearly misreading the moment. Yes, Bostonians hate the city's terrible traffic. But they don't think Michelle Wu invented it, and they are clearly unmoved by Kraft's promise to freeze bike lanes.
Along the same lines, Team Kraft has also been unable to whip up hysteria over crime. Wu likes to say we live in the safest big city in the country; experts say the superlative 'safest' is disputable. But what matters in this debate is that voters don't view violent crime as an urgent problem in need of fixing.
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Ultimately, fear of crime isn't statistical; it's something voters feel in their bones. Boston residents don't feel unsafe.
So Kraft hasn't found an effective line of attack. It's not that people think Wu is some perfect mayor - of course they don't. But they believe in where she's leading the city, and they don't see why Kraft would be an upgrade.
Finally, voters appear to be wary that Kraft is trying to use his wealth to buy his way into office. According to campaign finance records, Kraft has raised well over $3 million for this race, not counting the millions a Super PAC - 'Your City, Your Future' - has raised to blanket the airwaves with anti-Wu ads on Kraft's behalf. Wu has attacked him relentlessly for trying to buy City Hall, and that seems to be effective.
I firmly believe Kraft's camp erred by going so negative so early. Aggressively attacking Wu before voters had any sense of Kraft wasn't just ineffective - I think it rallied support for her. That partly explains why his numbers are so remarkably low. His campaign has been great - for Wu.
The worst number in this poll for Kraft: Seven. That's the percentage of remaining undecided voters. That is the number that might force him to rethink this entire venture. Because if you're down 30 points and most voters have made up their minds, where do you go for your votes?
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I'm not saying I expect Kraft to drop out. But the questions facing this campaign today are truly existential. Robert Kraft is a man who despises losing and hates throwing away money. He can't relish the prospect of dumping millions of dollars into a blowout loss, and I'm sure he has trusted people on his payroll who know how to analyze a poll.
Josh Kraft is a dedicated, well-meaning civic figure. But what he isn't, to date, is much of a mayoral candidate. Yes, he has millions of dollars left to spend on this race.
But all his riches haven't bought him much so far. Maybe this would be a good time to ask himself why that's likely to change.
Adrian Walker is a Globe columnist. He can be reached at
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'He cares a lot about people, and he'll go out of his way to help out anyone who needs it who's being abused by the system,' said Reza, who saw Newman earlier this year when the two met with Home Depot managers over allegations that their stores in Phoenix were chasing off day laborers. 'He's super busy over there in California right now, isn't he?' A fast talker who exudes confidence but isn't a braggart, Newman looks far younger than 49. His full head of hair, round-framed glasses and freshly sprouted mustache gives the Chicagoland native the look of a Depression-era do-gooder. 'I'm trying to hold onto the anger stage so I don't get into the sad stage,' he said. 'And I don't want to get there because that'll lead to the acceptance stage, and too much of L.A. is already there.' Newman never planned for a career like this, even though his mother was from Denmark, his father is a Hungarian Jew and his brother is of Salvadoran descent. He attended law school in Denver, set on becoming a death penalty lawyer, until realizing 'it wasn't like I thought it was in the movies.' A mentor suggested that Newman recharge his bleeding heart by volunteering with Minsun Ji, founder of Denver's first day laborers' center. 'I didn't even know day laborers were a thing,' Newman admitted. But he immediately 'loved everything — just hanging out there, chewing the fat and hearing the stories of the jornaleros.' Ji assigned him to help clean the restrooms his first few weeks. Newman eventually graduated to handling wage theft cases and volunteered for whatever was needed, including driving a van full of day laborers to an NDLON conference in suburban Maryland in 2002. There, he heard Thomas Saenz, an attorney for the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund who led a successful lawsuit against Prop. 187, the 1994 California anti-immigrant ballot initiative. Saenz told the crowd about MALDEF's lawsuits against Southern California cities that were trying to ban day laborers. 'That's when I realized I could use my law degree to do the exact same thing,' Newman said. '[It was] something that I loved in theory, but I didn't realize it was happening in real life.' About a year later, he called NDLON co-founder Pablo Alvarado. 'It was at eight at night, and I was still at the [NDLON] office,' Alvarado said in a phone interview. 'And Chris said, 'I want to do a fellowship with you. The fellowship deadline is at three in the afternoon the next day. Can I go right now so we can write it?'' He began to laugh. 'We didn't sleep all night, but we did it — we finished his application. And Chris never left.' (Newman remembers the moment differently. He said he applied for the fellowship, but Alvarado forgot about it until the day before it was due.) Twenty-one years later, Alvarado says Newman's energy and verisimilitude haven't changed. 'Even though he's a lawyer, his feet are on the ground — he's not an elitist. By 8 in the morning, he will have read every article written that day about immigration. He'll tell me what we need to do, and then he goes out and does it.' Like the Abrego Garcia case. Newman called Abrego Garcia's lawyer to offer help, then connected with the family to organize a GoFundMe campaign through NDLON. Next was enlisting artists in a social media campaign to make Abrego Garcia's predicament go viral. Soon, Newman was on a flight to El Salvador in an unsuccessful bid to visit the imprisoned Abrego Garcia, something he would try two more times. 'It felt like a Venn diagram of everything I've worked for over the past 20 years,' said Newman, who has yet to speak to Abrego Garcia. 'At the time, we had no idea whether he was innocent or guilty. What mattered is that he deserved due process.' Soon after Newman's last visit to El Salvador, L.A.'s summer of deportation raids began. I concluded our breakfast by asking if Newman was optimistic that things might get better. Instead of cowering under Trump's boot, L.A. has stood up. The day we met, the Pentagon announced that half of the 4,000 National Guard members deployed in Southern California in the wake of anti-ICE protests would leave. 'I'm a Cornel West disciple,' Newman responded. 'And he said there's a difference between hope and optimism.' West defined optimism as based on a rational analysis of what's out there, while hope is an act of courage against what seems like impossible odds. 'No one has ever accused me of being an optimist,' Newman said. He kept thinking about it. 'I don't know, but I think the tide will turn. I remember when Arpaio had an 85% approval rating. And he went down.' He got more animated. 'I know people can turn the tide, but they have to do their part.' He reached into his straw tote and brought out his anti-migra swag — a T-shirt emblazoned with 'Arrest Trump, Not Migrants,' bumper stickers reading 'ICE Out of LA!' with the 'LA' in Dodgers style, red-and-white signs declaring 'I.C.E. Off My Property Get A Warrant!' Our waitress came with the bill, then looked at the T-shirt. 'That's really cool!' she exclaimed. 'Want it?' Newman replied as he handed it to her. Other Homegirl staffers grabbed stickers and signs. As we exited the cafe, Newman left a stack on a table next to the door. 'I'm going to go to Highland Park later to ask businesses if they want to post them on their windows,' he said as a customer eyed the signs. 'Go ahead and take it, man,' Newman urged. 'Take a bunch!'
