Trump's art of the deal still doesn't apply to Putin
Ukraine may control some 5 per cent of the world's lithium but as yet extracts none of it, and around 7 per cent of the titanium, but again produces no refined titanium and exports only much less valuable ore. Ukraine's only graphite mine, opened in 1934, closed last December after a collapse in world prices. There's also uranium ore, but again the real value is in semi-refined yellow cake that is used to create nuclear fuel and as yet Ukraine produces none. As for the famous 'rare earth metals' – a list of fifteen elements used in electronics – Ukraine officially has none, at least according to the US Geological Survey.
Then there's the problem of distribution of these minerals. Geology is no respecter of borders, and many of the largest deposits – for instance of Lithium ore – run from Kyiv-controlled into Moscow-controlled territory. This is especially true of the biggest and most valuable prize of all, a vast and unexploited natural gas field that runs across the Northern end of the basin of the Donets River, now mostly under Russian occupation.
In theory, then, Ukraine does have plenty of mineral resources which will one day generate plenty of wealth – just not immediately, in the words of an old Soviet joke, and not for everybody. The Americans and Ukrainians seem to have opposite visions of exactly who stands to gain.
For many US Republicans, Trump has opened up a new Klondike which will enrich American businesses. For the Ukrainians, the deal will help attract the multiple billions of dollars in investment that will be needed to extract, refine and transport the minerals from mine to market. And ironically, it's the Ukrainians who are right – they've sold Trump a fantasy that his own side will have to pay to make real.
But Kyiv also hopes that now that the deal is signed the Trump White House will now become more sympathetic to their interests. Good luck with that. Earlier this week the Kremlin – in the person of the granite-faced Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov – grimly re-stated that Russia's demands remained completely unchanged after three months of intensive Trump diplomacy.
Trump, from his position of strength, can force his weaker Ukrainian allies to swallow their pride and dance to whichever tune he wishes. Putin, however, remains deaf to Trump's dealmaking, however artful.
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