Are Murder Rates Plummeting Under Donald Trump? What We Know
Co-Founder of AH Datalytics, Jeff Asher, found that as of early May 2025, murders have fallen by 31.6 percent in Baltimore, 34.5 percent in St. Louis, 36.8 percent in Cleveland, 63 percent in Denver, 30.6 percent in New Orleans, 26.8 percent in New York, and 23.7 percent in Chicago.
The White House is taking credit for this fall. However, this reduction in homicides is part of a larger trend. In June 2024, homicide rates were down nearly 20 percent from 2023, and in 2023, homicide rates dropped by 13 percent from 2022.
Asher told Newsweek: "I think that it would be hard to give credit towards administration action, given that it really just a continuation of trends [and continuing on] momentum from things that were happening before."
Homicide rates skyrocketed during the pandemic, and are now falling to lower than pre-pandemic levels, signaling a positive move away from the lingering impacts of COVID-19 on American society.
In 2020, during President Donald Trump's first term, the U.S. saw the fastest spike in murders in recorded history, with cities seeing an average rise in homicides of 30 percent, per the Brookings Institution.
More than 24,000 Americans died by homicide in the U.S. in 2020. These numbers remained high in 2021 and 2022.
Data analysis by the Brookings Institution found that homicide spikes occurred alongside spikes in unemployment in low-income areas, pointing to how a significant rise in people out of work could lead to higher crime rates.
Since then, homicide rates have been falling year on year. If rates continue to fall this year, then 2025 could see the lowest murder rate ever recorded in the U.S. As of mid-2025, the lowest recorded murder rate was in 2014.
In a post to Bluesky, Asher said: "It's still not clear how much it'll hold up for the rest of the year, but the drop in murder so far in 2025 is remarkable."
Asher told Newsweek that federal funding of community resources and construction can lead to a reduction in crime rates. In general, he is skeptical of the impact that any federal government can have on murder rates.
He added that, given the newness of the Trump administration to office, it is difficult to determine what impact it may have had on current homicide rates.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told the Daily Signal: "American families were promised their communities would be safer and President Trump swiftly delivered by vocally being tough on crime, unequivocally backing law enforcement, and standing firm on violent criminals being held to the fullest extent of the law."
Jeff Asher told Newsweek: "I think it's generally beyond the scope of any piece of legislation or any piece of federal action that tends to be a major driver [in homicide rates]."
If homicide rates continue to fall, 2025 could see the lowest murder rate in recorded history.
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