Surge in older population poses major funding challenge for Ireland, ESRI warns
The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) said the number of long-term residential care beds and home supports for older people will need to increase by at least 60% by 2040 to meet demand.
It found that long-stay bed requirements will grow from 29,579 beds in 2022 to between 47,590 and 53,270 beds by 2040, a growth of between 61% to 80%.
Furthermore, short-stay beds may need to rise from 3,745 in 2022 to as high as 7,265, which would be an increase of 94%.
Home help hours, meanwhile, are projected to grow from 28.7m hours annually to up to 54.9m annually by 2040, a growth of up to 91%.
ESRI senior research officer Brendan Walsh: 'Ireland has experienced tremendous improvements in life expectancy' which means there will be a much larger population 'who require long-term care services to support them at home, or within residential facilities.' Picture: ESRI
The steep rise in demand is being driven by the steady increase in the size of the older population, according to the ESRI.
By 2040, one in five people in Ireland will be over the age of 65.
The population aged 85 and over, who use a large proportion of nursing home beds and home support, will be more than double what it is now.
ESRI senior research officer Brendan Walsh said: 'Ireland has experienced tremendous improvements in life expectancy in recent decades, driven mainly by reductions in mortality at older ages.
This means there is, and will be, a much larger population at older ages who require long-term care services to support them at home, or within residential facilities.
'Therefore, plans and policies are needed for long-term care to ensure the health system is in a position to meet the increasing care needs of the older population. Our findings provide policymakers with an important evidence base to help develop these plans and policies.'
The research body said that healthier ageing in future may reduce the requirements for long-term beds while the expansion of home support services could also be of benefit.
However, the sheer numbers of people who will be aged 65 and over who require such care may offset these changes.
Regional projections of where services will be needed must also be prepared, the research said.
Health minister Jennifer Carroll MacNeill said the programme for government pledges to build more public nursing home beds, create a homecare scheme to help people stay in their homes longer, and increase home care hours. She said:
We are already making progress in increasing both residential care capacity and home support hours for our older population.
"This is shown by the €4m allocated in Budget 2025 to staff and open 615 new community beds.
'The Department of Health and the HSE are also working on a new Long-Term Residential Care Additional Capacity Plan, to be published in 2025.'
Minister of state Kieran O'Donnell, who has responsibility for housing and older people, said that the ESRI research would be 'invaluable' for capacity planning for residential care and home support.
'It is evident that significant action will be required by Government in order to ensure that the appropriate care services are available for our older population and to deliver on programme for government, Sláintecare, and Project Ireland 2040 commitments,' said Mr O'Donnell.
'I am absolutely committed to ensuring that this capacity planning is advanced in 2025.'
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