Lula Leverages Trump Feud, Styling Himself as Brazil's Defender

Yahoo

2 days ago

(Bloomberg) -- Brazil's president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, had just returned to his office from a meeting with Indonesia's prime minister when the reports began blaring on TV.
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Donald Trump was threatening to impose 50% tariffs on Brazil if its Supreme Court didn't immediately dismiss coup attempt charges against his ally, Jair Bolsonaro.
Lula, as the veteran Brazilian leader is known, thought it was fake news.
Famously averse to social media — he doesn't use a mobile phone — Lula hadn't seen Trump's post announcing the levies. When aides told him there'd been no official message from Washington, he initially assumed the reports had gotten something wrong, officials familiar with the situation recounted.
But as the shock abated, the 79-year-old leftist quickly settled on his response. Rather than cower in the face of US menacing, he would fight: Brazil, his government would say in an official letter to the White House, wouldn't tolerate incursions on its sovereignty from anyone.
It's a decision that not only set the tone for relations between the US and Brazil. It has also rejuvenated Lula, who after three years of struggles suddenly seems to have recaptured the political magic that defined his previous two terms as the nation's leader.
He's done so by quickly refashioning himself into Brazil's chief defender from foreign incursion, a nationalistic message that has allowed Lula to seize the sort of patriotic mantle that the left had largely ceded to former president Bolsonaro and the Brazilian right.
At public events and in social media campaigns, Lula has criticized Trump for trying to position himself as an 'emperor of the world' who can force countries like Brazil to bend to his every demand.
'President Trump, our sovereignty is built by these Brazilian people, who work and produce,' he said at an event Thursday. 'This country belongs to the Brazilian people.'
And he's made little secret of who he thinks is really to blame: Bolsonaro, who's set to face trial later this year and whose son, Eduardo, has spent months in the US lobbying Trump to come to his father's rescue.
'The guy who tried to do a coup against my government ran away like a rat. Now he sent his son to Washington to ask Trump to intervene in Brazil,' Lula said at the same event. 'It's a disgrace.'
And just as Trump seeks legal grounds to boost tariffs in Brazil, Lula escalated his rhetoric during a speech on Friday: 'If President Trump had done here what he did at the US Capitol, he would also be facing trial because, in this country, the Brazilian people are in charge.'
Green and Yellow
It's a message that has put Lula on the front foot for the first time since he returned to office in 2023, more than a decade after he left the job with approval ratings north of 80%.
For much of his term, Lula has failed to replicate those earlier successes, reliant on an old playbook and a dated communications strategy that have largely fallen short of Brazilians' modern reality.
While Bolsonaro is barred from running again, Lula has insisted on seeking reelection in 2026 and for months his marketing team had been working on a communications strategy for the race. The initial idea, as described by three officials familiar with the plan, was essentially an evolution of the poor-versus-rich rhetoric that he'd successfully employed in the past. This time, the target would be more specific: banks, billionaires and sports gambling companies — a group Lula believes should pay more taxes to finance an expansion of Brazil's welfare state.
The strategy was being tested on social media with relative success, according to the officials, all of whom spoke on condition of anonymity. But now it's Trump who is suddenly pushing Brazilians over to Lula's side.
More than 60% see the US decision to target Brazil as unjustified, according to LatAm Pulse, a survey conducted by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg News. A similar share said they approved of Lula's foreign policy as the tariff fight raged, while his approval rose to the highest levels of 2025. Trump's image has plummeted, with 63% of Brazilians saying they see him negatively.
'There appears to be a 'rally around the flag effect' in Brazil,' said Jimena Zuniga, Latin America geoeconomics analyst for Bloomberg Economics. 'That effect appears to have helped liberal incumbents whose countries have been targeted by Trump earlier this year, notably in Mexico and Canada. Brazil could join that club.'
That such an effect is benefiting a leftist is something of a shock in Brazil, where the right has so thoroughly dominated patriotic messaging over the last decade that the country's most iconic totem — its famous yellow soccer shirt — became symbols of Bolsonaro support.
Now Lula is wrapping himself in the Brazilian flag. He has painted himself as the last line of defense for some of Brazil's most vital industries and recognizable companies — including coffee producers and Embraer SA, the world's third-largest planemaker.
He's adopted the hallmarks of Trumpism: At events, Lula has donned a blue ballcap emblazoned with the slogan 'Brazil belongs to Brazilians.'
And he's begun to make inroads into another dominion of the nationalistic right, waging a war of memes on social media where the left — in Brazil and beyond — has never managed to match the strength of their opponents.
'Lula wants to tax the super rich,' one popular meme shared by prominent leftist lawmakers read. 'Bolsonaro wants to tax Brazil.'
The government's official social media accounts are now filled with viral Gen Z-coded videos that explain tariff effects and jab at Trump. A TikTok video that uses kittens to explain national sovereignty has garnered more than a half-million views. Others highlight Brazilian-made goods.
Brazilians haven't yet staged the sort of commercial revolts against American goods that Canadians have. But some have tried — whether earnestly or in jest.
One fashion influencer has suggested her followers swap out US-made products for versions made by Brazil's Natura Cosmeticos SA, or New Balance sneakers for local brand Olympikus. Cafe owners have posted receipts online in which they jokingly impose a 50% surcharge on American tourists.
And at times, Lula himself has become the meme. After he mocked Eduardo Bolsonaro for begging Trump for help — 'for the love of God, Trump, defend my father,' he said in a derisive tone at one event — a user remixed it into a song that has gone viral online.
Economic Risk
For all the momentum that appears behind Lula now, the tariffs still pose significant risk to Brazil's economy — and to his presidency.
Bloomberg Economics estimates that full implementation could wipe 1% off gross domestic product, the sort of dent no leader wants to see with an election approaching.
The government has pushed for negotiations with Trump, but has so far found little success even in establishing basic channels of communication, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said this week.
That has left Lula's administration bracing for impact, focusing on contingency plans to protect businesses and the government and potential retaliatory measures if the tariffs take effect.
Any significant damage would add to the concerns that were already plaguing both Lula's approval and Brazil's economy mere weeks ago, including mounting fiscal worries, stubbornly high inflation and deteriorating relations with Congress that had made fixing those problems even harder.
Lula, though, can now point the finger at Trump — and Bolsonaro. The question is whether he can convince Brazilians to do the same when they go to the polls 15 months from now.
--With assistance from Augusta Saraiva.
(Updates with report that Trump is seeking legal grouds for Brazil tariffs and Lula's comment in 12th paragraph.)
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