Can BRICS project unity amid global tensions? – DW – 07/04/2025

DW

21 hours ago

The influence of BRICS, a global forum championed by China, Russia, and India, is on the rise. Still, even its major members have to negotiate internal conflicts amid challenges posed by the Trump administration.
A two-day summit of the BRICS grouping of emerging economies starts Sunday in Brazil's Rio de Janeiro, as the global forum seeks to build consensus and cohesion after the group expanded over the past two years.
BRICS styles itself as a counterweight to western multilateral institutions like the G7, and describes its role as a "political and diplomatic coordination forum" for countries of the Global South.
Brazil, which holds the grouping's rotating presidency, is focusing the Rio summit on strengthening Global South cooperation for more inclusive governance.
In the run-up to the official conference, negotiators from member states have met to find common ground that will shape discussions on issues like access to vaccines, disease prevention, ethical implementation of artificial intelligence and enabling Global South action on climate change.
The leaders of Russia and China, two of the grouping's key members, will not travel to Brazil to attend the 17th BRICS summit.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely skipping the summit to avoid an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant for war crimes. Russia has said Putin will join via video link.
Chinese President Xi Jinping will not attend a BRICS summit for the first time since he became China's leader in 2012. His absence is more of a mystery. China's Foreign Ministry said Premier Li Qiang would represent China, and did not provide a reason as to why Xi is staying behind.
The , which first broke news of Xi's absence, cited unnamed Chinese officials that Xi had a "scheduling conflict" and had met Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva twice in the past year.
The report included that an exclusive invitation to a state dinner from da Silva to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi would also have been bad imaging for Xi.
Another possible source of tension is Brazil's decision to not join the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing's keystone global infrastructure financing scheme.
China has positioned itself as the vanguard of BRICS expansion and ambition, but Xi's absence at the Brazil summit gives India's Modi the opportunity to take center stage. India is due to take up the BRICS presidency in 2026, and New Delhi is eager to expand on its global diplomatic outreach.
Modi's appearance in Brazil is part of a five-nation tour, his longest diplomatic circuit in 10 years, which also includes Trinidad & Tobago, Argentina, and two African countries, Namibia and Ghana.
BRICS is a forum where both the Chinese and Indians have been "trying to come to terms with who is a better spokesperson for the Global South," Harsh V. Pant, head of the Strategic Studies Program at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), a New Delhi-based think tank, told DW.
The summit "might give Modi the opportunity to amplify that part of India's foreign policy agenda" and Xi's absence "certainly gives him more space to maneuver," he said.
"When BRICS started, it was about emerging powers trying to retain space in the global multilateral economic order. There was an unease with Western dominance of global economic institutions, and India wanted to work with emerging powers. At that point, India believed there was space to work with Russia to balance China. Today, those considerations are up in the air," Pant added.
BRICS, originally called "BRIC" after founding members Brazil, Russia, India, China, eventually added an "S" with South Africa in 2010. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates joined in 2024, but the acronym remained the same.
Indonesia officially joined earlier this year, bringing the membership to 10 countries. Saudi Arabia has been invited to join, but has held off on formalizing membership. Dozens of other countries have shown interest.
Statistically, BRICS countries comprise 40% of the global population, and the share of global GDP at purchasing power parity comes in at more than 35%.
However, the grouping has so far found it difficult to turn that potential clout into a viable alternative to Western-led multilateral institutions.
Fundamentally, BRICS is more of a loose grouping than a bloc like the EU, or an alliance like NATO. And with more members, finding consensus becomes more complicated.
One of BRICS most ambitious undertakings has been the New Development Bank (NBD), a development financing institution founded in 2015 as an alternative to institutions like the World Bank, which Global South countries believe is failing to meet their needs.
The NBD has seen some success in funding infrastructure projects in developing countries using local currencies. BRICS is now seeking to build on that track record. A press release from Brazil said the 2025 summit will seek consensus on making the NBD the "main financing agent for industrialization in the Global South."
However, the NBD's smaller size makes it unlikely to emerge as a challenger to the World Bank and the global financial system.
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Other ideas like a common BRICS currency to counter the US dollar have fallen flat, partly due to China's economic dominance, which would give it an outsized weight over other members.
Moreover, internal disagreement persists over issues like Russia's war in Ukraine. A key narrative used to promote BRICS was based on an appeal to legitimizing principles, like the idea of national sovereignty, and non-intervention of countries in another's domestic affairs.
"The problem is that you have Russia there, which is now challenging the sovereignty of other countries. You have China there, which is challenging the sovereignty of India and of several other countries in the maritime space," said ORF's Pant.
Geopolitical tensions between China and India include a border dispute and China's support for Pakistan during the recent skirmish between Islamabad and New Delhi.
There are "divergences between India and China that are quite significant,"Pant said.
"China remains uncomfortable with wider issues about India's rise and role in the global hierarchy," according to the Indian expert.
BRICS has also notably failed to muster a common response on the string of geopolitical and economic challenges coming from the US, including Donald Trump's threat of tariffs.
When Iran, a member of BRICS, was bombed by the US, BRICS members issued a strongly worded joint statement expressing "serious concern" over attacks against "peaceful nuclear installations."
But fellow BRICS members Russia and China, which both have partnership agreements with Iran, did not take any substantive action on Tehran's behalf.
On Trump's blanket tariffs, BRICS was absent as a cohesive front for negotiation, despite its massive GDP size on paper.
"By and large we've seen a very pragmatic approach by all of these countries in engaging with the Trump administration rather than putting up a fight on some grand principles," Pant said.
"If you look at the rhetoric and you look at the actual realities on the ground, both the Russians and Chinese at this point are more interested in cutting bilateral deals with Trump. Russians are working with Trump on security architecture in Europe, China is working on a trade deal. Indians are also interested in a bilateral trade deal with the US."
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"On substance, there is not much there as an example of countries that have the potential to push back against the US, because all of them are cutting bilateral deals," he added.