Britain's risk of power outages this winter lowest since pre-Covid, Neso says
In its early winter outlook, Neso anticipates an average operational margin – the difference between supply of electricity and demand for it – of 6.6 gigawatts (GW) from the end of October to the end of March.
This is the highest expected margin since the 2019-2020 winter and is greater than the 5.2 GW forecast last year.
The publicly-owned operator is tasked with ensuring that the supply of and demand for electricity always remains balanced.
If supply cannot meet demand then the country risks blackouts.
An increase in the margin has been driven by several factors, Neso said, including growth in electricity supply from battery storage at both a national and regional level – which enables power from renewables to be stored and then released when it is needed.
It also pointed to an increase in the availability of electricity generation from gas, and from a new power cable, known as the Greenlink interconnector, connecting electricity grids between Wales and Ireland.
This increased supply is expected to more than offset an expected rise in demand during peak periods.
The slight uptick marks a divergence from previous years, when demand has either stayed the same or fallen, but Neso said it is too early to say what might drive that increase.
Neso said it expects there to be around six minutes over the winter period where it might have to resort to special measures to keep the grid running smoothly.
In most cases where demand exceeds supply for a period of time, it is managed by the grid operator without any impact on consumers.
Neso stressed it was remaining 'vigilant' in its preparation for the winter amid changes in global energy markets.
'Our early view of the winter ahead shows a positive outlook with sufficient margins throughout the colder winter months,' Deborah Petterson, Neso's director of resilience and emergency management said.
'We will continue to monitor developments in global energy markets, remaining vigilant in our preparations to ensure that the resilience and reliability of the electricity network is maintained.'
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Telegraph
5 days ago
- Telegraph
Miliband to unleash new gas plants to back up patchy wind and solar
Ed Miliband has opened the way for a fleet of new gas-fired power stations to back up Britain's wind and solar farms. He has told the National Energy System Operator (Neso) – the UK's grid operator – that by the end of the decade it must keep 40 gigawatts (GW) of spare generating capacity on standby for days when wind and solar cannot keep the nation's lights on. The request is part of a system known as the capacity market, where companies are paid to keep generating capacity on standby for days when renewables output plummets or demand surges. The capacity market already costs British consumers about £1.3bn a year – but this will surge to £4bn by 2030 as reliance on renewables increases, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has said. Mr Miliband's letter to Neso has told it to ensure it has 40GW-worth of back-up generating capacity on the system, roughly equating to the output of 35-40 large gas-fired power stations. About two thirds is expected to come from gas and the rest from batteries, interconnectors and other sources. The riches available to power companies via the capacity market has caused a mini-boom in construction of gas fired power plants. Neso's list of projects seeking grid connections has more than 100 new gas-fired power stations planned around the UK. Most are smaller than the large power plants built in the past but designed to be more flexible, meaning they can ramp their output up and down according to demand and the price of power. They make their profits partly from being paid to be on standby and partly from operating only when power prices surge to unusually high levels – as often happens when low winds reduce windfarm output. Driving up costs Adam Bell of Stonehaven, an energy consultancy, said the system drove up costs for consumers. 'The capacity market is driving a boom in construction of gas fired power stations but these plants push up prices for everyone in the wholesale market. That's why subsidy costs are rising. 'We know that they are able to make excessive returns and they are also given 15 year capacity market agreements which locks in these effects for too long.' John Constable, director of the Renewable Energy Foundation, said that the mix of subsidies supporting renewables were collectively costing the UK £25.8bn a year. 'Renewables are intrinsically unreliable,' he said. 'Under the capacity market consumers are forced to provide an indirect subsidy to wind and solar to pay for a shadow fleet of gas turbines and batteries to guarantee security of supply. This results in two parallel electricity systems and so reduces grid productivity and increases costs.' The move coincides with a separate announcement from Mr Miliband regarding contracts for difference (CfDs) – a different subsidy mechanism. These support construction of renewables such as wind and solar farms by guaranteeing a minimum price for the power they generate. Mr Miliband said that future projects would now be able to apply for CfDs before even getting planning consent – and could then claim subsidies for 20 years instead of the previous 15 years. He said such changes would help deliver more clean power and support thousands of jobs. However, CfDs added £1.8bn to bills last year – equating to about £100 on the average household bill according to parliamentary reports. This too is set to surge, in line with the planned increase in wind and solar farms. Energy UK, trade body for power suppliers, has backed the changes to the CfD scheme. A Department for Energy Security and Net Zero spokesperson confirmed the capacity market system would add £21 to the average household bill this year and said future power plants would be built so that they could eventually be converted to run on green hydrogen or fitted with carbon capture technology. 'The Capacity Market mechanism ensures our electricity supply is secure and meets demand. From this auction onwards, unabated gas plants must have a credible plan to decarbonise to be eligible.' Doug Parr, policy director at Greenpeace UK, said the Capacity Market was a 'rip-off' for consumers and urgently needed reform. He said: 'Our energy market is rigged in favour of gas. It sets the price of electricity 98pc of the time, while only providing around 30pc of our electricity. It's a complete rip off for consumers.'
The Independent
10-07-2025
- The Independent
Clean energy delays to hit household bills
The National Energy System Operator (Neso) has warned that delays to critical clean energy projects could cost UK consumers approximately £4.2 billion in 2030. These delays primarily concern three vital grid projects in East Anglia and the southeast, which are essential for connecting offshore wind farms. Neso's assessment indicates that without these projects, the UK's clean power objective for 2030 will not be achieved, leading to significant constraint costs. The government may need to compensate offshore wind farm developers for switching off turbines due to grid limitations, with these costs potentially passed on to households. Separately, the government has announced it is dropping plans for energy pricing zones, opting to maintain a single national wholesale price for electricity.
The Independent
10-07-2025
- The Independent
Energy bills to rise because of delays to Labour's plan to slash prices
Households across the UK could face electricity bill increases due to delays in the government's clean energy projects. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has previously pledged that average household energy bills will be £300 lower by 2030 as Britain shifts to using more renewable energy from wind farms. However, ministers have been warned that three vital projects 'critical to delivering a network which supports the clean power pathways' will be delayed until after 2030. The National Energy System Operator (Neso) calculated that the delays to these projects will cost consumers around £4.2 billion in 2030. Three critical grid projects in East Anglia and the southeast are needed to connect offshore wind farms in the North Sea, Neso said. 'Our assessment suggests that without these projects, the clean power objective would not be achieved, leaving the clean power target short by around 1.6% in 2030, and consumers could face extra constraint costs of around £4.2 billion in 2030,' it said in the report. Constraint costs are the penalties paid when electricity can't flow efficiently to where it's needed. This means the government might have to compensate offshore wind farm developers for switching off turbines because the electricity grid wouldn't be able to carry the power to households, and there are fears these costs will be passed onto customers. The report also urges a more joined-up approach that considers both national and local networks to avoid bottlenecks. It highlights the benefits of new electricity grid-enhancing technologies and additional projects that could cut reliance on polluting gas power stations. Bringing forward eight more projects could reduce costs by a further £1.7 billion in 2030, but the operator said doing so will be 'extremely difficult' without sweeping reforms to planning rules and funding processes. Shadow Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho said Mr Miliband's pledge to reduce bills by £300 was 'always a fantasy'. 'This is what happens when you set yourself impossible climate targets and ignore the costs,' she wrote on X, formerly Twitter. The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero has been approached for comment. It comes as the government announced it will be dropping its plans for energy pricing zones. The energy secretary had been considering proposals for zonal pricing that would see different areas of the country pay different rates for their electricity, based on local supply and demand. But the government has now decided to retain a single national wholesale price. Zonal pricing would have seen bills based on how much electricity is available, meaning areas such as Scotland, which generates large amounts of power, would have lower market prices. But it also means market prices in other parts of the country, such as the South East, would have been higher. Proponents of the scheme said it would save billions of pounds each year by making the electricity grid more efficient, but critics said it would create a postcode lottery where people face an unfair disparity in bills.
