As Greer Fire burns, here's what to know about Arizona's wildfire forecast
Arizona was warned earlier this year to expect a potentially destructive wildfire year because of an extended short-term drought that left forests and rangelands dry and brittle.
'This is one of the most critical years that we've seen in our careers,' John Truett, fire management officer for the Department of Forestry and Fire Management, said at a briefing in March. 'We're coming off several years of drought, and we're experiencing very extreme dryness in our vegetation this year.'
Here's what to know about wildfires in 2025:
Wildfires tend to pick up in March, with peak risk in April, May and June as temperatures rise, humidity drops and winds blow. The arrival of the monsoon can help ease the risk if it brings enough rain.
In recent years, many wildfire experts have said the old definitions of "wildfire season" are less reliable because of rising temperatures and relentless drought. The Horton Fire near Payson started in January and burned nearly 9,000 acres.
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Most of the state has faced extreme short-term drought since the end of the 2024 monsoon season.
Phoenix had its second-longest dry spell on record with 159 consecutive days without measurable rain between Aug. 22, 2024, and Jan. 29, 2025.
Snowpack across the High Country was well below average. Flagstaff Airport recorded 46.8 inches of snow since July 1, 2024, compared to an 83.7-inch average during the same timeframe.
With a three-decade drought, vegetation across the state is increasingly dry and ready to burn.
'As we head into the hotter months, obviously the risk is a lot greater,' Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs said at the March briefing. 'The Department of Forestry and Fire Management is making sure the state is well-prepared for another intense wildfire season.'
The department has treated over 23,000 acres across Arizona since July — removing vegetation that fuels wildfires — and has a goal to treat 30,000 acres by the end of the fiscal year.
The state also joined the Great Plains Interstate Fire Compact in 2024, allowing Arizona to access fire prevention, preparedness and suppression resources from other participating states.
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Truett predicts any fire start could turn into a large event and stress the state's resources. Despite the extreme risk, local and federal agencies are working to reduce fuel loads and fire risk while fighting fires quickly and efficiently when they inevitably start.
With drought and heat conditions across much of the country, national resources will be strained.
Truett said the department will be cautious in how it balances aiding partners across the west while maintaining staffing in Arizona, especially if there are multiple fires burning at once across the state.
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Despite federal funding cuts and widespread layoffs across agencies like the U.S. Forest Service, Truett says resource availability and staffing to address fire risk have not been affected.
Fire managers are almost fully staffed, with seasonal firefighters joining Hotshot teams and fire engines. The department is on pace to have all its positions filled by the peak fire season.
Both Hobbs and Truett urged the public to educate themselves and minimize fire risk. In 2020, more than 80% of Arizona's fires were caused by people.
'A lot of our starts are human-caused and those can be preventable. Just be cautious when you're out cleaning your properties, recreating and (using) towing chain,' Truett said. 'We just had a chain drag 20 miles and created 18 new fires, so that tells us the probability of ignition is way up.'
Hayleigh Evans writes about extreme weather and related topics for The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com. Email her with story tips at hayleigh.evans@arizonarepublic.com.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Greer Fire burns in eastern Arizona, forecast calls for greater risk
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