Two European countries in ‘red zone' of climate finance vulnerability
A new index has identified the countries most vulnerable to climate shocks.
More than two billion people live in 'red zone' nations, where the risk of a major hazard or disaster is high and access to finance is dwindling, it reveals.
Two-thirds of the 65 nations in this most at-risk list are in Africa, but it also includes two in Europe: Cyprus and Ukraine.
Built by Columbia Climate School in the US with support from The Rockefeller Foundation, the Climate Finance (CliF) VulnerabilityIndex is intended to provide more comprehensive risk assessments, and ultimately help direct aid to those who need it most.
How does debt increase climate vulnerability?
'Climate shocks are becoming more frequent and intense, yet many of the nations facing the highest threats are also heavily indebted, limiting their access to financial markets,' says Jeff Schlegelmilch, Associate Professor of Professional Practice of Climate and Director of the National Centre for Disaster Preparedness at the Columbia Climate School.
Heatwaves, floods, cyclones, droughts and other extreme events are all on the rise as the climate heats up.
Though predictions are rife with uncertainties, these climate disasters could result in more than 14.5 million deaths and $12.5 trillion (around €10.7 trillion) in global economic losses by 2050, according to the World Economic Forum.
Meanwhile the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) estimates that the annual adaptation financing gap - the amount countries need to adapt to climate change - could be as much as $387 billion (€331 billion) a year.
At the same time, high borrowing costs and limited access to finance keep many nations trapped in a cycle of climate disaster response and recovery, the researchers say, unable to really advance their climate mitigation and adaptation.
'Traditional aid models based on GDP per capita or income level don't capture the unique and growing risks of climate exposure along with limited access to capital to manage these risks,' adds Schlegelmilch.
'The CliF Vulnerability Index provides a more realistic picture of risk, including the access to financing to address climate vulnerabilities.'
Eric Pelofsky, Vice President for Global Economic Recovery at The Rockefeller Foundation, says the index is an important conversation-starter, on the eve of the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development in Seville next week.
'By using the CliF Vulnerability Index, donors and funders can prioritise support for countries that are potentially living one disaster away from crisis.'
Why are Cyprus and Ukraine 'red zone' nations?
The Red Zone is dominated by countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which comprise 43 (66 per cent) of the 65 countries in the danger area where climate vulnerability and financial weakness overlap.
The index makes four forecasts per country: using a 2050 or 2080 timeline, as well as 'optimistic' and 'pessimistic' climate scenarios.
10 African nations appear in the bottom 10 countries across all four scenarios: Angola, Burundi, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Eritrea, Lesotho, Malawi, South Sudan, Sudan, and Zambia.
Saliem Fakir, Executive Director of The African Climate Foundation, says the index complements its own work advocating for 'more systemic approaches to adaptation in Africa for countries suffering by high debt distress.'
Ukraine and Cyprus also appear in the red zone; Cyprus in the 2050 optimistic, 2050 pessimistic, and 2080 pessimistic scenarios. Ukraine in 2050 optimistic and 2080 optimistic scenarios.
This is primarily due to non-climate hazards, which are nonetheless included in the data. Cyprus is prone to earthquakes, while conflict in Ukraine makes it vulnerable.
These factors impact disaster management, climate adaptation systems and pressures on finance, a spokesperson for Columbia Climate School and Rockefeller Foundation explains.
European nations are better represented among the list of nations best equipped to deal with climate shocks. Eight of these top 10 countries are OECD members, and half are in Europe: Denmark, Estonia, Norway, Switzerland, Sweden, as well as South Korea, Japan and the US.
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