Daniel Corbett's winter outlook: Get ready for a wild ride
The season's weather will feature lots of variety - from the risk of heavy extreme rainfall to Antarctic cold and some fine settled days in between.
This variety will be the key feature because there's no set driving force to the weather over the next few months. Instead, we will have lots of factors jostling for space on our weather maps each week.
Watch Daniel Corbett's winter outlook on TVNZ+
The main driver that can influence our weather is ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation – which has now tilted back to the middle of the scale. That puts us midway between the La Nina of last year and El Nino at neutral.
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In a meteorological sense that means the Pacific Ocean, instead of being too warm or too cold, is just in the middle. Iin other words, rather than a predominant El Nino which pushes westerly winds across New Zealand, or more easterlies with a La Nina, we could have both - if not other wind directions too.
The big pink elephant in the room leading into winter is the warmer than normal seas around New Zealand, and many of the areas surrounding us, that help produce our weather systems.
They are currently running 1-4C above normal.
Sea temperatures are generally above average currently. Courtesy NOAA. (Source: Supplied)
Our warming planet has been making this quite commonplace these days. Think of warmer seas like that hotter tub of bath water with rising steam coming off it.
It has more rising air because of the warmer water, which can lead to more vertical motion to help create clouds and weather systems.
Warm seas
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The extreme rainfall events in Nelson and at Taree in New South Wales are very recent memories but they're also a good reminder of the stacked deck of cards that the weather now throws our way during heavy rain events.
The warm seas, a more significant feed of juicy air from the tropics, and the right conditions for low pressure development combined often play a part in these rainfall events. As a result, more extreme rainfall events may not be out of the realm of possibilities again over winter.
With this mix of different types of weather during the season, the extra thick merino as well as the sunglasses and thinner layers will all come in handy.
Of course, the raincoats will also be a big go-to at times.
Overall, the winter will be warmer than normal thanks to the surrounding seas but that won't completely keep outbreaks of cold air from making a visit at times too.
This will especially be the case when a lobe of the all too familiar Polar Vortex rotates into the Southern Ocean. Brrr! The skiers might find some decent snowfall on occasion too with the right moisture feed coinciding with these cold surges.
So, get ready for winter - it looks like it could be a wild ride.
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Watch Daniel Corbett's winter outlook on TVNZ+
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