Worse trade outcomes possible if uncertainty spreads globally, warns WTO
New Delhi: Global goods trade posted a strong uptick in early 2025 but weakening export orders suggest that this momentum may not be sustained, the World Trade Organisation (
WTO
) Thursday said in its
Goods Trade Barometer
. The uptick was driven by importers frontloading purchases ahead of anticipated higher tariffs.
The barometer rose to 103.5 up from 102.8 in March while the forward-looking new export orders index fell to 97.9 pointing to weaker trade growth later in the year. The barometer is a composite leading indicator for world trade, providing real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends.
Year-on-year growth in the world merchandise trade turned positive the fourth quarter of 2023 and strengthened in 2024 as falling
inflation
and lower interest rates boosted real incomes and consumption.
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'Year-on-year trade growth eased in the fourth quarter of 2024 but new trade volume indices set for release in July are
expected to show a rebound in Q1,' WTO said.
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The
Global Trade Outlook
and Statistics report of April predicted stable
merchandise trade growth
of 2.7% in 2025 under a low-tariff baseline scenario, and a decline of 0.2% in an adjusted forecast reflecting
higher tariffs and rising
trade policy uncertainty
.
'Policy shifts since April have nudged the forecast up and down, but worse outcomes are still possible if uncertainty spreads globally,' it said.
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