‘A lot comes down to Wednesday's read': Economists name key figure every mortgage holder wants
Economists say that would put the quarterly trimmed mean inflation rate between 2.6 and 2.7 per cent over the year – within the RBA's target band of between 2 to 3 per cent – and open the door for further interest rate relief.
Trimmed mean inflation, which excludes volatile prices including food and fuel, is the figure the RBA pays most attention to in its battle to control inflation.
Wednesday's CPI release comes after annual trimmed mean inflation fell to 2.9 per cent in the March quarter, its lowest level since December 2021. It hit a high of 7.8 per cent the following December.
AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said the RBA was looking for further proof inflation had been beaten, with a quarterly figure of between 0.6 or 0.7 likely to sway it to cut the official cash rate after it surprisingly kept it on hold in July.
'A lot comes down to the CPI that comes out on Wednesday,' Dr Oliver said.
'If the CPI is in line or a little bit higher than the RBA's trimmed mean forecast of 2.6 per cent for the year then I think we will get a rate cut.
'If it is 2.8 or 2.9, then they might think, let's wait a little while longer.'
Dr Oliver's forecast comes in line with three of the four major banks, with Westpac, ANZ and the Commonwealth Bank all calling quarterly trimmed mean inflation to come in at between 0.6 and 0.7 per cent.
But due to rounding, CBA has pencilled in an inflation rate of 2.8 per cent.
CBA economist Harry Ottley, who is expecting inflation to come in at the top of the range, said in a note this result would come in slightly above the RBA's recent estimate of 2.6 per cent.
'If our forecasts are correct, we still expect the board to cut the cash rate in August,' Mr Ottley said.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said regardless of Wednesday's inflation figures, the cost of living was headed in the right direction.
'Any headline inflation number tomorrow with a two in front of it will confirm that we have been in the Reserve Bank target band for a full year,' the Treasurer said.
'Whatever the quarterly fluctuations or monthly fluctuations, the direction of travel when inflation has been clear.
'Both headline and underlying inflation are now back in the Reserve Bank's target and for the first time since 2021.'
RBA governor Michele Bullock said after July's announcement that the cash rate would be kept on hold at 3.85 per cent was a pause about timing rather than direction.
'All members agreed that, based on the information currently available, the outlook was for underlying inflation to decline further in yearâ€'ended terms, warranting some additional reduction in interest rates over time,' she told reporters.
'The focus at this meeting was on the appropriate timing and extent of further easing, against the backdrop of heightened uncertainty'.
Wednesday's CPI figures will be the last bit of economic data released ahead of the RBA's August 11 to 12 meeting.
An inflation print in line with the RBA's expectation would follow weaker than expected jobs figures released in June.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 per cent last in June, beating market expectations of 4.1 per cent, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Despite the Australian dollar crashing and the sharemarket jumping on the news, Ms Bullock said it wasn't the 'shocking result' markets were calling during her speech at the Anika Foundation.
'Some of the coverage of the latest data suggested this was a shock – but the outcome for the June quarter was in line with the forecast we released in May,' she said.
Ms Bullock said the board wanted to see a gradual easing in labour market conditions, that has so far been most evident in fewer job vacancies, reductions in hours worked and declining rates of voluntary job switching.
'These shifts aren't without their challenges, but they all tend to be less disruptive than outright job losses,' she said.
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Man of Many
29 minutes ago
- Man of Many
The Inaugural Morris Single Barrel Whisky: A Historic Moment for Australian Malts
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The Advertiser
an hour ago
- The Advertiser
Rivers of gold pour into Kalgoorlie for mining forum
Mining has always been an industry of boom and bust. The fickle fortunes of Australia's biggest export sector were clear to see on opening day of the annual Diggers and Dealers conference on Monday. With bullion prices sitting at record highs, goldminers Evolution and Ramelius Resources could scarcely conceal their glee as they boasted to investors, analysts and rivals of the rivers of cash flowing their way. Just a few years ago, Ramelius was targeting an ore grade of two grams per tonne and making good money, chief executive Mark Zeptner said. Today, following its merger with Simon Lawson-founded Spartan Resources, it's hitting an average grade of three grams of gold per tonne of ore mined. "So it's fair to say at a three gram per tonne head grade and the current gold price, we are killing it," Mr Zeptner said, grinning. After "sparring" with Mr Lawson in the past year or so, the pair find themselves at the helm of one of the ASX's largest goldminers following a $2.5 billion merger. Mr Zeptner said he would handle the "boring" financial operations of the new joint entity - "that is if you find ridiculous cash flows boring" - while Mr Lawson, who has stayed on as deputy chairman, said he was content to focus on exploration. "Mark and I, after stopping sparring, agreed that it would be a great combination to bring that skill set together, that operational excellence and that exploration upside … hopefully, that sizzle," he said. Mr Lawson is a rockstar in the WA Goldfields town of Kalgoorlie, which is hosting the mining forum for a 34th time. The price of gold has almost doubled in less than three years to nearly $5200 an ounce, flooding the coffers of miners. Following the Ramelius-Spartan tie-up and Northern Star's $5 billion takeover of De Grey Mining, there is still plenty of M&A appetite in the sector. Miners attending the forum are sitting on astronomical cash and bullion reserves, with five companies - Northern Star, Ramelius, Evolution, Vault and Regis - on more than $500 million each, according to gold mining consultants Surbiton Associates. "Perhaps they could be used for further acquisitions, although prices now paid to obtain such new assets are very high," director Sandra Close said. "The concern is that the larger the cash reserves become, the more the company may become a tempting takeover target." But things were less rosy for uranium miners Paladin and Boss Energy. The short seller targets were the first miners to present on Monday and had a tough story to sell. Falling uranium prices have smashed share valuations, while Paladin and Boss have suffered output downgrades at their Langer Heinrich and Honeymoon mines, respectively. Additionally, hopes for an Australian nuclear power industry to boost demand for the radioactive ore were dashed when the Peter Dutton-led coalition, which championed the policy, was trounced at the May election. But governments globally were looking increasingly favourably at uranium to power their energy needs; a promising prospect for the industry, outgoing Boss Energy chief executive Duncan Craib said. "Australia has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to contribute in achieving net zero and capitalise on the inevitable surge of global uranium demand that will accompany it," he said. Despite his bullish comments, Mr Craib shied away from the media pack, avoiding the customary question-and-answer with journalists following his presentation. There was plenty of support for nuclear energy in the event's curtain-raiser, a panel discussion between Canadian nuclear advocate Chris Keefer, Centre for Independent Studies energy expert Aidan Morrison and the right-wing think tank's executive director Tom Switzer. Australia's best shot at reducing carbon emissions in electricity generation remained nuclear power, but even then it would not be possible to achieve net zero by 2050, Mr Morrison said. Mining has always been an industry of boom and bust. The fickle fortunes of Australia's biggest export sector were clear to see on opening day of the annual Diggers and Dealers conference on Monday. With bullion prices sitting at record highs, goldminers Evolution and Ramelius Resources could scarcely conceal their glee as they boasted to investors, analysts and rivals of the rivers of cash flowing their way. Just a few years ago, Ramelius was targeting an ore grade of two grams per tonne and making good money, chief executive Mark Zeptner said. Today, following its merger with Simon Lawson-founded Spartan Resources, it's hitting an average grade of three grams of gold per tonne of ore mined. "So it's fair to say at a three gram per tonne head grade and the current gold price, we are killing it," Mr Zeptner said, grinning. After "sparring" with Mr Lawson in the past year or so, the pair find themselves at the helm of one of the ASX's largest goldminers following a $2.5 billion merger. Mr Zeptner said he would handle the "boring" financial operations of the new joint entity - "that is if you find ridiculous cash flows boring" - while Mr Lawson, who has stayed on as deputy chairman, said he was content to focus on exploration. "Mark and I, after stopping sparring, agreed that it would be a great combination to bring that skill set together, that operational excellence and that exploration upside … hopefully, that sizzle," he said. Mr Lawson is a rockstar in the WA Goldfields town of Kalgoorlie, which is hosting the mining forum for a 34th time. The price of gold has almost doubled in less than three years to nearly $5200 an ounce, flooding the coffers of miners. Following the Ramelius-Spartan tie-up and Northern Star's $5 billion takeover of De Grey Mining, there is still plenty of M&A appetite in the sector. Miners attending the forum are sitting on astronomical cash and bullion reserves, with five companies - Northern Star, Ramelius, Evolution, Vault and Regis - on more than $500 million each, according to gold mining consultants Surbiton Associates. "Perhaps they could be used for further acquisitions, although prices now paid to obtain such new assets are very high," director Sandra Close said. "The concern is that the larger the cash reserves become, the more the company may become a tempting takeover target." But things were less rosy for uranium miners Paladin and Boss Energy. The short seller targets were the first miners to present on Monday and had a tough story to sell. Falling uranium prices have smashed share valuations, while Paladin and Boss have suffered output downgrades at their Langer Heinrich and Honeymoon mines, respectively. Additionally, hopes for an Australian nuclear power industry to boost demand for the radioactive ore were dashed when the Peter Dutton-led coalition, which championed the policy, was trounced at the May election. But governments globally were looking increasingly favourably at uranium to power their energy needs; a promising prospect for the industry, outgoing Boss Energy chief executive Duncan Craib said. "Australia has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to contribute in achieving net zero and capitalise on the inevitable surge of global uranium demand that will accompany it," he said. Despite his bullish comments, Mr Craib shied away from the media pack, avoiding the customary question-and-answer with journalists following his presentation. There was plenty of support for nuclear energy in the event's curtain-raiser, a panel discussion between Canadian nuclear advocate Chris Keefer, Centre for Independent Studies energy expert Aidan Morrison and the right-wing think tank's executive director Tom Switzer. Australia's best shot at reducing carbon emissions in electricity generation remained nuclear power, but even then it would not be possible to achieve net zero by 2050, Mr Morrison said. Mining has always been an industry of boom and bust. The fickle fortunes of Australia's biggest export sector were clear to see on opening day of the annual Diggers and Dealers conference on Monday. With bullion prices sitting at record highs, goldminers Evolution and Ramelius Resources could scarcely conceal their glee as they boasted to investors, analysts and rivals of the rivers of cash flowing their way. Just a few years ago, Ramelius was targeting an ore grade of two grams per tonne and making good money, chief executive Mark Zeptner said. Today, following its merger with Simon Lawson-founded Spartan Resources, it's hitting an average grade of three grams of gold per tonne of ore mined. "So it's fair to say at a three gram per tonne head grade and the current gold price, we are killing it," Mr Zeptner said, grinning. After "sparring" with Mr Lawson in the past year or so, the pair find themselves at the helm of one of the ASX's largest goldminers following a $2.5 billion merger. Mr Zeptner said he would handle the "boring" financial operations of the new joint entity - "that is if you find ridiculous cash flows boring" - while Mr Lawson, who has stayed on as deputy chairman, said he was content to focus on exploration. "Mark and I, after stopping sparring, agreed that it would be a great combination to bring that skill set together, that operational excellence and that exploration upside … hopefully, that sizzle," he said. Mr Lawson is a rockstar in the WA Goldfields town of Kalgoorlie, which is hosting the mining forum for a 34th time. The price of gold has almost doubled in less than three years to nearly $5200 an ounce, flooding the coffers of miners. Following the Ramelius-Spartan tie-up and Northern Star's $5 billion takeover of De Grey Mining, there is still plenty of M&A appetite in the sector. Miners attending the forum are sitting on astronomical cash and bullion reserves, with five companies - Northern Star, Ramelius, Evolution, Vault and Regis - on more than $500 million each, according to gold mining consultants Surbiton Associates. "Perhaps they could be used for further acquisitions, although prices now paid to obtain such new assets are very high," director Sandra Close said. "The concern is that the larger the cash reserves become, the more the company may become a tempting takeover target." But things were less rosy for uranium miners Paladin and Boss Energy. The short seller targets were the first miners to present on Monday and had a tough story to sell. Falling uranium prices have smashed share valuations, while Paladin and Boss have suffered output downgrades at their Langer Heinrich and Honeymoon mines, respectively. Additionally, hopes for an Australian nuclear power industry to boost demand for the radioactive ore were dashed when the Peter Dutton-led coalition, which championed the policy, was trounced at the May election. But governments globally were looking increasingly favourably at uranium to power their energy needs; a promising prospect for the industry, outgoing Boss Energy chief executive Duncan Craib said. "Australia has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to contribute in achieving net zero and capitalise on the inevitable surge of global uranium demand that will accompany it," he said. Despite his bullish comments, Mr Craib shied away from the media pack, avoiding the customary question-and-answer with journalists following his presentation. There was plenty of support for nuclear energy in the event's curtain-raiser, a panel discussion between Canadian nuclear advocate Chris Keefer, Centre for Independent Studies energy expert Aidan Morrison and the right-wing think tank's executive director Tom Switzer. Australia's best shot at reducing carbon emissions in electricity generation remained nuclear power, but even then it would not be possible to achieve net zero by 2050, Mr Morrison said. Mining has always been an industry of boom and bust. The fickle fortunes of Australia's biggest export sector were clear to see on opening day of the annual Diggers and Dealers conference on Monday. With bullion prices sitting at record highs, goldminers Evolution and Ramelius Resources could scarcely conceal their glee as they boasted to investors, analysts and rivals of the rivers of cash flowing their way. Just a few years ago, Ramelius was targeting an ore grade of two grams per tonne and making good money, chief executive Mark Zeptner said. Today, following its merger with Simon Lawson-founded Spartan Resources, it's hitting an average grade of three grams of gold per tonne of ore mined. "So it's fair to say at a three gram per tonne head grade and the current gold price, we are killing it," Mr Zeptner said, grinning. After "sparring" with Mr Lawson in the past year or so, the pair find themselves at the helm of one of the ASX's largest goldminers following a $2.5 billion merger. Mr Zeptner said he would handle the "boring" financial operations of the new joint entity - "that is if you find ridiculous cash flows boring" - while Mr Lawson, who has stayed on as deputy chairman, said he was content to focus on exploration. "Mark and I, after stopping sparring, agreed that it would be a great combination to bring that skill set together, that operational excellence and that exploration upside … hopefully, that sizzle," he said. Mr Lawson is a rockstar in the WA Goldfields town of Kalgoorlie, which is hosting the mining forum for a 34th time. The price of gold has almost doubled in less than three years to nearly $5200 an ounce, flooding the coffers of miners. Following the Ramelius-Spartan tie-up and Northern Star's $5 billion takeover of De Grey Mining, there is still plenty of M&A appetite in the sector. Miners attending the forum are sitting on astronomical cash and bullion reserves, with five companies - Northern Star, Ramelius, Evolution, Vault and Regis - on more than $500 million each, according to gold mining consultants Surbiton Associates. "Perhaps they could be used for further acquisitions, although prices now paid to obtain such new assets are very high," director Sandra Close said. "The concern is that the larger the cash reserves become, the more the company may become a tempting takeover target." But things were less rosy for uranium miners Paladin and Boss Energy. The short seller targets were the first miners to present on Monday and had a tough story to sell. Falling uranium prices have smashed share valuations, while Paladin and Boss have suffered output downgrades at their Langer Heinrich and Honeymoon mines, respectively. Additionally, hopes for an Australian nuclear power industry to boost demand for the radioactive ore were dashed when the Peter Dutton-led coalition, which championed the policy, was trounced at the May election. But governments globally were looking increasingly favourably at uranium to power their energy needs; a promising prospect for the industry, outgoing Boss Energy chief executive Duncan Craib said. "Australia has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to contribute in achieving net zero and capitalise on the inevitable surge of global uranium demand that will accompany it," he said. Despite his bullish comments, Mr Craib shied away from the media pack, avoiding the customary question-and-answer with journalists following his presentation. There was plenty of support for nuclear energy in the event's curtain-raiser, a panel discussion between Canadian nuclear advocate Chris Keefer, Centre for Independent Studies energy expert Aidan Morrison and the right-wing think tank's executive director Tom Switzer. Australia's best shot at reducing carbon emissions in electricity generation remained nuclear power, but even then it would not be possible to achieve net zero by 2050, Mr Morrison said.
Sydney Morning Herald
4 hours ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
ASX closes flat as miners outshine banks; gold stocks rally
Welcome to your five-minute recap of the trading day. The numbers The Australian sharemarket has shrugged off signs of weakness in the world's biggest economy to close flat, as a rally in mining stocks helped offset declines in the major banks and energy companies. The S&P/ASX 200 closed 1.7 points higher on Monday, at 8663.70 points, reversing a fall in the index earlier in the day. Six of the market's 11 sectors fell, and the weakest sectors for the day were energy, financials and industrials. The flat performance followed a slump on Wall Street on Friday, as investors reacted to surprisingly weak figures on US jobs growth and the latest developments in US President Donald Trump's trade war. The Australian dollar was fetching US64.83¢ at 4.50pm AEST. The lifters Miners posted a strong session, buoyed by a higher iron ore price and strength in the gold price. Global mining giant BHP rose 0.9 per cent, Fortescue was up 1.5 per cent and Rio Tinto gained 0.4 per cent. Gold miners performed particularly well after a rise in the price of the precious metal. Evolution Mining jumped 2.6 per cent and Northern Star Resources surged 5.6 per cent. Shares in Endeavour – the company that runs Dan Murphy's and BWS – jumped 3 per cent after executive chairman Ari Mervis suddenly quit his role over 'disagreements with the board' as he edged closer to handing over the keys of the business to incoming chief executive Jayne Hrdlicka. Consumer staple stocks also had a solid day: supermarket giant Woolworths rose 1.3 per cent, and rival Coles lifted 1.7 per cent.
