'A little too enthusiastic': Wall Street warns against chasing stock rally despite trade breakthroughs

Yahoo

19-05-2025

The stock market rally fueled by President Trump's tariff rollback on China is drawing caution from some strategists, who warn the rebound may be overextended.
"I am concerned about the magnitude of the rally we've seen coming back," Charles Schwab chief global investment strategist Jeffrey Kleintop told Yahoo Finance on Friday.
"The market might be a little too enthusiastic that the trade worries are behind us," he added. "The trade framework, so far, [is] far from completed agreements."
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) has surged roughly 1,000 points from its April 9 lows, prompting some Wall Street firms to raise their year-end outlooks as trade tensions have eased.
Earlier this week, the broad-based index finished erasing all of its 2025 losses after US-China talks resulted in a truce that paused and lowered tariffs on both sides. That followed a limited pact announced earlier this month between the US and the United Kingdom that lowered barriers on some goods, such as automobiles and agriculture.
Meanwhile, Trump's 10% baseline tariffs — which apply to nearly all trading partners — took effect in April and remain in place. An additional set of reciprocal tariffs that could push rates even higher for some countries were temporarily paused last month for 90 days.
Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet
Stock market optimism this week was also buoyed by a series of investment announcements made during Trump's recent Middle East visit, signaling the administration's openness to negotiate deals in that region.
Still, strategists caution that without concrete trade resolutions, market volatility could return.
'The tariff cat is out of the bag,' Jay Pelosky, founder of TPW Advisory, said, adding that this signals a broader 'erosion of trust and confidence' in the US government and its policies. 'That trust has been severely bruised,' he added.
'Even with the reduction in tariffs on China, we're still looking at the highest US tariff levels since World War II or earlier — and that's going to have a negative effect" on the economy, he said.
Despite the recent negotiations, tariff levels remain "significantly higher" than they were at the start of the year, according to UBS strategists in a note. They estimate the effective US tariff rate — the average duty on all imports — now stands at roughly 15%, six times higher than the 2.5% rate in January before Trump returned to the White House.
That estimate assumes the tariff rollbacks announced in last month's 90-day pause will remain in place beyond the deadline.
'With the Trump administration signaling that the 10% baseline tariff is unlikely to be negotiated lower, these elevated tariffs could slow the U.S. economy and drive prices higher,' Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a client note Thursday.
While more trade deals may be announced in the coming weeks, Marcelli warned that 'ongoing uncertainty could trigger further bouts of market volatility.'
'We haven't seen anything permanent,' said Alex Morris, CEO of F/m Investments, in an interview with Yahoo Finance on Thursday. 'I think the market will want to see that before we really take off. There's a bit of a bounce right now, but I think we're going to see a lot more volatility ahead.'
Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs
While many companies reported strong quarterly results this season, management teams expressed uncertainty over tariff-related impacts, with some firms even withdrawing their forecasts.
On Thursday, retailer giant Walmart (WMT) warned it may be forced to raise prices.
'Low prices are what we stand for, and we're going to keep them as low as we can for as long as we can,' Walmart CFO John David Rainey said on Yahoo Finance's Catalysts. 'But when you look at the magnitude of some of the cost increases on certain imported categories, it's more than what retailers or suppliers can bear.'
Some strategists are pointing investors toward defensive sectors like utilities and international equities. Unlike the Federal Reserve, which has held rates steady, several foreign central banks have cut rates, helping lift overseas markets.
'If you've been underweight international stocks, now is the time to at least get back to that strategic weight,' said Brian Nick, head of portfolio strategy at NewEdge Wealth.
Portfolio managers also caution against trying to time the market or reacting to short-term volatility, especially given the swift rebound since April.
'Ultimately, we still think it's an environment where the S&P can tick higher, stocks can do well, but it's not going to be straight up and to the right,' Tim Urbanowicz, chief investment strategist at Innovator ETFs, said.
Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.