Airlines forecast profit growth in 2025, headwinds persist

Zawya

10-06-2025

The International Air Transport Association (Iata) has released its updated outlook for 2025, forecasting stronger profitability for airlines over 2024, despite continued global economic and geopolitical challenges.
Source: Archive
The industry is expected to post a net profit of $36.0bn in 2025, an increase from the $32.4bn projected for 2024, though slightly below the $36.6bn estimate made in December 2024.
The net profit margin will improve from 3.4% to 3.7%, while operating profits are forecast to rise to $66.0 bn from $61.9bnn the previous year.
Total revenues are set to reach a record $979bn, up 1.3% year-on-year, driven by strong demand, with passenger numbers climbing to an all-time high of 4.99 billion, representing a 4.0% increase on 2024. Cargo volumes will also edge up by 0.6% to 69 million tonnes.
"The first half of 2025 has brought significant uncertainties to global markets. Nonetheless, by many measures, including net profits, it will still be a better year for airlines than 2024, although slightly below our previous projections.
"The biggest positive driver is the price of jet fuel, which has fallen 13% compared with 2024 and 1% below previous estimates," says Willie Walsh, Iata's director general.
Passenger demand and revenues climb
Passenger load factors are set to reach a record 84.0%, reflecting capacity constraints from persistent supply chain bottlenecks affecting fleet deliveries and maintenance. Total passenger revenues will hit a record $693 billion, a 1.6% increase, including a notable 6.7% rise in ancillary revenues to $144 billion.
Passenger traffic, measured in Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs), is expected to expand by 5.8%, with average airfares easing as passenger yields decline by 4.0% in response to falling oil prices and competitive pricing pressures. The average return airfare, adjusted for inflation, will drop to $374, about 40% lower than 2014 levels in real terms.
In a recent April 2025 IATA passenger poll, 40% of respondents indicated they planned to travel more in the year ahead, while 53% said they would travel the same as before. Encouragingly, 47% expressed an intention to spend more on travel, underscoring continued consumer appetite for air journeys despite economic headwinds.
Cargo revenue dips amid slower growth
On the cargo side, revenues are projected to fall by 4.7% to $142bn due to a softening global economy and growing protectionism.
Cargo growth will slow to 0.7%, following an 11.3% expansion in 2024, as yields are anticipated to decline by 5.2%. However, cargo demand remained resilient into April 2025, up 5.8% year-on-year.
Airlines' total expenses will climb to $913bn, a 1.0% increase, though this will be offset by a lower fuel bill of $236bn, with average jet fuel prices expected at $86 per barrel, down from $99 the previous year.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production is set to double to 2 million tonnes, accounting for 0.7% of total fuel use, though high SAF prices — more than 4.2 times the cost of conventional jet fuel — remain a challenge, compounded by European compliance fees.
'The behaviour of fuel suppliers in fulfilling the SAF mandates is an outrage. The cost of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 is estimated to be an enormous $4.7t. Fuel suppliers must stop profiteering on the limited SAF supplies available and ramp up production to meet the legitimate needs of their customers,' Walsh commented.
The cost of Corsia carbon credits is expected to rise to $1bn in 2025, though currently only Guyana has issued the high-quality credits required by the scheme.
Delivery delays and engine issues persist
Aircraft manufacturers continue to grapple with backlogs exceeding 17,000 aircraft, pushing waiting times for new orders to as long as 14 years. Deliveries are forecast to reach 1,692 aircraft in 2025 — the highest since 2018 — yet this remains 26% below earlier estimates. Engine supply chain problems have grounded over 1,100 aircraft under 10 years old, equivalent to 3.8% of the global fleet, primarily due to PW1000G engine issues.
"Manufacturers continue to let their airline customers down. Every airline is frustrated that these problems have persisted so long. And indications that it could take until the end of the decade to fix them are off-the-chart unacceptable!" Walsh stresses.
Regional outlook
North America leads, Africa lags
Regionally, North America will maintain the highest absolute profit, though airlines face economic slowdown and operational constraints. In Europe, robust demand, especially from low-cost carriers, and a stronger Euro are bolstering performance.
Asia Pacific is benefitting from relaxed visa policies and improved capacity on China-US routes, while Latin America's prospects remain mixed amid local currency weakness and a proposed Brazilian VAT increase on air travel.
Middle Eastern carriers will achieve the highest profit per passenger carried, although growth is hampered by aircraft delivery delays, and Africa continues to face the toughest conditions due to high operational costs, fleet shortages, and access to foreign currency.
Public support and climate goals
Public sentiment toward air travel remains positive, with IATA's April poll showing 97% of travellers satisfied with their journeys, and 90% believing air connectivity is essential for modern life and economic development.
Confidence in the sector's climate ambitions also remains strong, with 81% of travellers trusting airlines' commitment to achieve net-zero CO2 by 2050, far outpacing confidence in government and oil company climate strategies.
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