Trump ends whirlwind week with billions in new tariff revenue and a more complicated trade war
This latest frenetic series of headlines began last Sunday with the president promising a mix of "Letters, and/or Deals" and then talking of being "done" with trade talks this week.
But observers surveyed the landscape this weekend seeing more than two dozen letters — and no deals — with perhaps the only certainty for the weeks ahead in that talks are likely to intensify in the coming weeks as negotiators (not to mention markets) refocus on a new Aug. 1 deadline.
Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet
But in the meantime — as Trump himself often touts — tariff revenues are clearly coming in. New data from the Treasury Department released Friday afternoon confirmed that June was yet another record month on the revenue front, with $26.6 billion in customs duties coming into US coffers.
It was another step up from May's total of $22.2 billion. It brings the total for the fiscal year, which began in November, to $108 billion, with the majority of that money coming in recent months as Trump's tariffs began to bite.
But the Friday afternoon data also confirmed that Trump still has a way to go before tariff revenues make up a major piece of US government receipts; this latest Treasury monthly statement also showed that total government receipts for the month topped $526 billion.
The new Friday data and Saturday letters were only the latest in a nonstop series of tariff headlines throughout the week — from surprise escalations and promises of 35% tariffs on Canada to 50% duties on Brazil to letters to 20+ additional nations and unveiling of 50% duties on copper.
Trade observers couldn't keep up, but markets more often than not shrugged off the threats, with apparent plans to wait and see what the landscape looks like closer to that deadline next month.
In the meantime, Trump says no more extensions are in the offing and added at a recent Cabinet meeting that "the big money will start coming in on Aug. 1."
In total, Trump is now promising to impose blanket tariffs of about 15% to 20% on most trading partners, with others going much higher.
Brazil was perhaps the biggest surprise of the week when that South American nation saw a letter with a possible 50% tariff over what Trump describes as a witch hunt of the former president, a Trump ally who faces accusations of trying to overturn the will of voters after losing a reelection bid in 2022.
'Maybe at some point I'll talk to him,' Trump told reporters Friday of when he would negotiate with Brazil. 'Right now I'm not.'
Also in focus as the week ended was Canada, which was another surprise when it saw a Trump promise of a 35% rate, though many goods like oil that currently see a lower rate are expected to continue to be carved out as talks continue there.
Read more: 5 ways to tariff-proof your finances
Those talks are looking ahead to the new Aug. 1 deadline as well as a coming joint review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) set for next July.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney responded to Trump's latest threat by saying talks have been ongoing with Canada prepared to defend its interests, adding, "We will continue to do so as we work towards the revised deadline of Aug. 1."
It was all part of a week that saw Trump offering a new volume of hawkish commentary by the day and markets not only looking through the rhetoric but even rising.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) did retreat on Friday and was largely flat on the week but reached new record highs earlier in the week.
It was a sharp contrast to early April when Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs sent markets reeling and caused the president to backtrack after he said he saw that people were "yippy" and "afraid."
It was a very different tone this time with Trump touting the record highs, hosting Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang at the White House, and even suggesting his tariffs were fueling his view that America is the 'hottest country.'
'Tech Stocks, Industrial Stocks, & NASDAQ, HIT ALL-TIME, RECORD HIGHS!' he wrote Thursday. 'USA is taking in Hundreds of Billions of Dollars in Tariffs. COUNTRY IS NOW 'BACK.'"
The bottom line, as Raymond James' Ed Mills noted this week, is that "the tariff landscape is evolving rapidly" with lots of drama ahead and rates likely from 10%-50% depending on the country.
But in the end, he added, after Aug. 1, "the base case is for tariffs to settle in the 10–30% range."
Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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