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Demand for non-US assets revives flows into emerging markets: Macquarie
Samie Modak New Delhi
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Emerging markets (excluding China) saw $13 billion in foreign inflows in May — the highest since December 2023 — according to Macquarie. This surge, following months of outflows, was driven by renewed investor appetite for non-US assets. India ($2.3 billion), Taiwan ($7.6 billion), and Brazil ($2 billion) led the inflows.
Macquarie strategists Viktor Shvets and Kyle Liu noted that 'American exceptionalism is eroding gradually, not collapsing,' which is fostering a slow rise in US risk premia and avoiding disorderly asset repricing. Investors are narrowing spreads between US and non-US assets, benefiting the Eurozone, Japan, and emerging markets with strong secular
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Business Standard
an hour ago
- Business Standard
Mines, magnets and Mao: How China built its global rare earth dominance
Rare earth metals were an afterthought for most world leaders until China temporarily suspended most exports of them a couple of months ago. But for almost half a century, they have received attention from the very top of the Chinese government. During his 27-year rule in China, Mao Zedong focused often on increasing how much iron and steel China produced, but seldom on its quality. The result was high production of weak iron and steel that could not meet the needs of the industry. In the late 1940s, metallurgists in Britain and the United States had developed a fairly low-tech way to improve the quality of ductile iron, which is widely used for pipelines, car parts and other applications. The secret? Add a dash of the rare earth cerium to the metal while it is still molten. It was one of the early industrial uses of rare earths. And unlike most kinds of rare earths, cerium was fairly easy to chemically separate from ore. When Deng Xiaoping emerged as China's paramount leader in 1978, he moved quickly to fix the country's iron and steel industry. Deng named a top technocrat, Fang Yi, as a vice premier and also as the director of the powerful State Science and Technology Commission. Fang immediately took top geologists and scientists to Baotou, a city in China's Inner Mongolia that had vast steel mills and the country's largest iron ore mine nearby. Baotou had already made much of the iron and steel for China's tanks and artillery under Mao, but Fang's team made an important decision to extract more than iron from the mine. The city's iron ore deposit was laced with large quantities of so-called light rare earths. These included not just cerium, for ductile iron and for glass manufacturing, but also lanthanum, used in refining oil. The iron ore deposit also held medium rare earths, like samarium. The United States had started using samarium in the 1970s to make the heat-resistant magnets needed for electric motors inside supersonic fighter jets and missiles. 'Rare earths have important application value in steel, ductile iron, glass and ceramics, military industry, electronics and new materials,' Fang declared during his visit to Baotou in 1978, according to an exhibit at the city's museum. At the time, Sino-American relations were improving. Soon after his Baotou visit, Fang took top Chinese engineers to visit America's most advanced factories, including Lockheed Martin and McDonnell Douglas assembly plants near Los Angeles. Rare earth metals are tightly bound together in nature. Prying them apart, particularly the heavier rare earths, requires many rounds of chemical processes and huge quantities of acid. During the 1950s and 1960s, the United States and the Soviet Union had each developed similar ways to separate rare earths. But their techniques were costly, requiring stainless steel vats and piping as well as expensive nitric acid. China ordered government research institutes to devise a cheaper approach, said Constantine Karayannopoulos, a chemical engineer and former chief executive of several of the largest North American rare earth companies. The Chinese engineers figured out how to separate rare earths using inexpensive plastic and hydrochloric acid instead. The cost advantage, together with weak enforcement of environmental standards, allowed China's rare earth refineries to undercut competitors in the West. Facing increasingly stiff environmental regulations, almost all of the West's refineries closed. Separately, China's geologists discovered that their country held nearly half the world's deposits of rare earths, including rich deposits of heavy rare earths in south-central China, valuable for magnets in cars as well as for medical imaging and other applications. In the 1990s and 2000s, Chinese refinery engineers mastered the task of prying apart heavy rare earths. That gave China an almost total monopoly on heavy rare earth production. 'The Middle East has oil,' Deng said in 1992. 'China has rare earths.' By then, he and Fang had already trained the next leader to guide the country's rare earth industry: a geologist named Wen Jiabao. He had earned a master's degree in rare earth sciences in the late 1960s at the Beijing Institute of Geology, when most of the rest of China was paralyzed during the upheaval of the Cultural Revolution. Wen went on to become a vice premier in 1998 and then China's premier from 2003 to 2013. During a visit to Europe in 2010, he declared that little happened on rare earth policy in China without his personal involvement.
The Print
an hour ago
- The Print
Nirav Modi's brother Nehal held in US on CBI, ED extradition requests; Justice Dept to oppose bail
Nehal, a Belgian national, has been named as an accused in charge sheets filed by both CBI and ED in the bank loan fraud, amounting to an excess of Rs 13,000 crore, which was borrowed fraudulently from the Punjab National Bank. His elder brother Nirav Modi and uncle Mehul Choksi have been named as the prime accused in the case. The Indian agencies have been informed by their American counterparts about the arrest, as well as given assurances from the US Justice Department that his bail plea will be opposed during the next date of hearing in the extradition proceedings. The next hearing is scheduled for 7 July, sources privy to the developments told ThePrint. New Delhi: Authorities in the United States Friday arrested Nehal Modi, brother and alleged co-conspirator of fugitive diamond businessman Nirav Modi, on the request for extradition submitted by India's agencies, the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and the Enforcement Directorate (ED), which have been probing the 2018 PNB loan fraud case. Notably, Nirav Modi has been in custody in the United Kingdom since March 2019, on account of pending extradition proceedings, while Mehul Choksi was detained by authorities in Belgium, where his extradition is also pending. Indian agencies managed to obtain a Red Corner Notice against Nehal in July 2019, based on which Interpol requested all its 192 member states to arrest or detain him upon spotting him in their countries, after which extradition or deportation proceedings could begin. In its charge sheet, the CBI has alleged that Nehal Modi attended a meeting with senior managers of the Punjab National Bank on 26 January, 2018, days before the CBI booked Nirav Modi, his family, Choksi, and retired deputy manager of the bank Gokulnath Shetty. Additionally, the agency found in the probe, through statements from individuals associated with Modis' firms, that after the registration of the CBI's case, Nehal Modi took overall control of the various companies' affairs. In the probe, agencies also allegedly found that Nehal Modi directed and facilitated the movement of funds and dummy directors of the firms of Nirav Modi from Dubai to Cairo, in an attempt to avoid arrest or criminal proceedings. He also allegedly instructed those directors to make false statements in the event of arrest by agencies, including claiming that they did not work for Nirav Modi. The ED also highlighted that Nehal allegedly took around 50 kg of gold and AED 3.5 million from a Dubai-based firm, Firestar Diamond FZE, as well as 150 boxes of pearls worth USD 6 million from Hong Kong, following investigations in India. Additionally, the agency alleged he was personally overseeing attempts to erase accounts and records that established the money trail of firms established by his brother, Nirav Modi, and his associates. 'He intimidated witnesses and sent them to Cairo, where their passports were taken over, and they were forced to sign some false papers. He offered a witness Rs 20 lakh for tendering false testimony before the judicial authorities of Europe,' the agency has alleged. (Edited by Viny Mishra) Also read: Rs 22,280 cr black & laundered money recovered, including from Mallya & Nirav Modi, says Sitharaman
Indian Express
an hour ago
- Indian Express
India says no to trade deal under deadline pressure; Trinidad & Tobago backs Delhi for UNSC; Gaza ceasefire soon
India abstains from signing trade deal with the US under 'deadline pressure', says open for a mutually beneficial deal; during PM Modi's visits to Trinidad and Tobago, the two sides reaffirm the need for reforms in the UN; US President Trump voices frustration over Russian President Vladimir Putin's failure to end the fighting; Hamas says it is ready to start talks 'immediately' on a US proposal for a 60-day ceasefire – here is weekly roundup of key global news. Notwithstanding the July 9 deadline for the reciprocal tariff pause, India abstains from signing a trade deal with the US under 'deadline pressure' reiterating that 'all possibilities are open' for a mutually beneficial deal. India has been negotiating with the US to eliminate the 26 per cent reciprocal tariff imposed on April 2. As Indian trade negotiators returned from the US on Friday, a government official described sustained access for labour-intensive goods (such as textiles and footwear), auto component exports, and steel as key interests in the India-US negotiations. In addition, agriculture and dairy sectors, where India has drawn 'very big red lines', emerged as sticking points, with the US demanding access to the Indian market for genetically modified (GM) products. What are the other points of difference that averted a trade deal, and what are the future prospects? Let's explore. India has drawn 'red lines' around politically sensitive agriculture and dairy sectors and has imposed both tariff and non-tariff restrictions on certain goods, including corn, ethanol, and soybeans. It has managed to shield its dairy sector because of at least two major reasons: one, the sector employs more than 80 million people, many of whom are smallholders; and two, there are concerns that foreign dairy products intended for food may be derived from animals fed with internal blood meal, a high-protein feed made from animal blood. As far as soyabean and corn are concerned, it is argued that imports are unlikely to suit India's soybean industry, which has a strong foundation in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. Similarly, millers are not too pleased about importing genetically modified corn as a feedstock for fuel ethanol. In addition, labour-intensive sectors such as textiles and footwear are among India's top demands in trade negotiations. It has sought lower tariffs in the textile trade in the US, similar to those offered to other FTA partners. India has also sought zero tariffs on electronic items exports, even as US President Donald Trump warned Apple of a 25 per cent tariff if it sold in the US iPhones built in India or anywhere else. Apple currently produces nearly 15 per cent of all iPhones in India, and plans to increase that to a quarter. India also aims to remove the US's additional duties on goods such as steel, aluminium, and auto components. In addition to the elimination of reciprocal tariffs, it has sought guarantees of no future tariffs. Moreover, New Delhi is seeking that the Trump Administration maintain a 'steady tariff differential' of 10-20 per cent between US tariffs on China and India, which is also a key reason to clinch the deal. This gives Indian traders an advantage over Chinese competitors and mitigates some of India's structural downsides, including infrastructural bottlenecks, logistics woes, and high interest costs. However, it may be noted here that this would hinge on how China leverages its dominance in rare earths to influence US tariff decisions. The growing concerns over Beijing's dominance in resources vital to new technologies were underscored at the recent Quad Foreign Ministers' meeting, where the grouping announced a Critical Minerals Initiative to 'collaborate on securing and diversifying' supply chains. The US has pushed hard for a broad-based opening of Indian sectors, from automobiles and whisky to agricultural items such as apples, corn and soya among others, as well as dairy. It has demanded the removal of a crucial regulation regarding dairy to sell its genetically modified (GM) products, resulting in tense discussions and even triggering protests from voices back home. The US eyes the Indian market amid a recent report by the US Department of Agriculture, which suggests that India's consumption of animal products (milk, eggs, fish, and meat) is likely to increase with population growth and rising per capita GDP. This could, in turn, boost demand for feed and create opportunities for US exports of these commodities (corn and soybeans) by the early 2030s, the report says. Moreover, the US sees India as a large market for its corn, soyabean and cotton amid the decline in exports of these products to China, which was its largest corn importer at $5.2 billion in 2022. Although India has said that the trade deal with the US will be signed when it is mutually beneficial, the two countries remain committed to more than double their bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. India is said to focus on areas where it has a competitive edge. Indian officials have indicated that diversifying oil and defence procurement is in the country's strategic interest, and that sourcing more from the US could significantly help bridge the goods trade gap. India's oil imports from the US have already jumped over 270 per cent year-on-year in the first four months of 2025. Moreover, in recent years, New Delhi and Washington have forged closer defence, technology, and diplomatic ties in a shared front against China. There is greater receptiveness now within India's policy circles to cut tariffs on some industrial goods, including automobiles, and some agricultural products of interest to Americans such as apples, almonds, walnuts, avocados and spirits. There is also more openness on the GM foods issue too. The NITI Aayog, in its Working Paper, has proposed that India import GM maize and soybeans, with the former as a feedstock for ethanol production, and the latter to extract oil for domestic consumption. In both cases, it calls for the export of their byproducts in their entirety – distiller's dried grains with solubles (maize) and de-oiled cakes and meals (soybean). It also called for concessions on agricultural products from the US such as edible oils and nuts where domestic supply gaps exist, and duty concessions to boost high-performing exports such as shrimp, fish, spices, rice, tea, coffee, and rubber. Additionally, the chances of India becoming the biggest market for the US are, perhaps, higher in cotton than in soyabean or corn. And it may be argued that duty-free imports of raw cotton can boost India's textile and apparel exports to the US itself, which stood at $10.8 billion in 2024. Notably, India-US trade negotiations have wrapped up for now, even as New Delhi strengthens its global diplomatic footprint. Support for India's permanent membership in the expanded United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and a shared commitment to fight terrorism are among the announcements made during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Trinidad and Tobago, the first by an Indian Prime Minister since 1999. The two countries inked six agreements to boost cooperation in several sectors, including infrastructure and pharmaceuticals, following talks between Prime Minister Modi and his counterpart from Trinidad and Tobago, Kamla Persad-Bissessar. The two leaders also delved into pressing global issues and reaffirmed the need for comprehensive reforms in the United Nations, including expansion of the UN Security Council, to better reflect current realities. The Caribbean nation also extended support to India's membership in the expanded UNSC. Modi and Bissessar called for dialogue and diplomacy as the way forward amid rising geopolitical tensions and global conflicts, and underlined the need for greater cooperation to deal with contemporary challenges such as climate change, disaster management, and cybersecurity. Prime Minister Modi also lauded the contribution of Indian-origin people to Trinidad and Tobago's development journey, and announced a decision to issue Overseas Citizenship of India (OCI) cards up to the sixth generation of the Indian diaspora in the country, where over 40 per cent of the population is of Indian origin. Earlier on Friday, the Prime Minister addressed the parliament of the Caribbean nation and spoke about the cricket connection between the two countries. He also reiterated his offer to train aspiring young women cricketers from Trinidad and Tobago in India. PM Modi expressed appreciation for Trinidad and Tobago's strong support and solidarity to the people of India in the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack, as the two leaders reaffirmed their commitment to fight terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. Modi is currently on a five-nation tour, which began with his visit to Ghana where he was honoured with Ghana's national award, 'The Officer of the Order of the Star of Ghana,' in recognition of his 'distinguished statesmanship and influential global leadership'. Four Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) were signed, including in the areas of cultural exchange and traditional music. In his joint press statement following talks with John Mahama, the President of Ghana, Prime Minister Modi announced that they have decided to give India-Ghana ties the form of a Comprehensive Partnership. After Trinidad and Tobago, PM Modi has reached Argentina for the next leg of his tour. Later, he will attend the BRICS Summit in Brazil, and visit Namibia on his return. Russia launched the largest aerial assault on Ukraine in the over three-year long war amid reports that Moscow has been using banned chemical weapons in Kyiv, while US President Donald Trump voiced frustration over Russian President Vladimir Putin's failure to end the fighting. Russian forces have used increasing numbers of drones to target Ukrainian cities, with a record total of 539 drones and 11 missiles deployed against Kyiv on July 4, Reuters reported, citing the Ukrainian air force. Russia also downed dozens of Ukrainian drones in widely dispersed parts of the country, including two near the second-largest city of St Petersburg. Meanwhile, Dutch and German intelligence agencies said Russia's use of chemical weapons in this war is 'becoming more normalised, standardised, and widespread', with Dutch Defence Minister Ruben Brekelmans calling for tougher sanctions against Moscow, reported Reuters. The US first accused Russia of using chloropicrin, a chemical compound more toxic than riot control agents and first used by Germany during World War I, in May last year. Ukraine also alleges thousands of instances of Russian chemical weapons use. Hours after Thursday's attack by Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a phone call with Trump, following which the US President said Ukraine would need Patriot missiles for its defence, Reuters reported. Commenting on the prospect of a ceasefire, Trump said, 'It's a very tough situation… I was very unhappy with my call with President Putin. He wants to go all the way, just keep killing people – it's no good.' Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, claiming it was needed to protect Russian-speaking civilians in eastern Ukraine and prevent the country from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Notably, Trump has ruled out the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO and even halted shipments of weapons and military aid to it. Since 2022, every NATO summit has committed to aiding Ukraine in its war against Russia. Most NATO countries view Russia as a direct and immediate threat. All the while, Israel continues to kill starving Palestinians as Hamas said it is ready to start talks 'immediately' on a US proposal for a 60-day ceasefire, prompting US President Trump to say there could be a deal by next week. At least 50 Palestinians were killed in Gaza as Israeli forces again target people waiting for food, Al Jazeera reported, while the UN said on July 5 that it had recorded at least 613 killings both at aid points run by the US- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) and near humanitarian convoys run by other relief groups, including the UN. The United Nations has criticised the GHF, which began distributing aid at the end of May following a three-month Israeli blockade on Gaza, for bypassing the UN-led system and violating humanitarian impartiality rules. Meanwhile, Hamas responded in 'a positive spirit' to the Gaza ceasefire proposal, brokered by the US and mediated by Egypt and Qatar. Trump had earlier said that Israel had agreed 'to the necessary conditions to finalise' the ceasefire, which envisages a release of hostages and negotiations on ending the conflict. According to Gaza's Health Ministry, at least 57,268 people have been killed and 135,625 wounded in Israel's devastating war on Gaza since October 2023, when Hamas attacked Israel, killing over 1,100 people and taking 251 hostage. In the meantime, the West Bank, occupied by Israel since the Six-Day War in 1967, has become a 'big prison' as Israel fences it in, Reuters reported. Walls and checkpoints erected by Israeli forces have long been a part of day-to-day life for the nearly 3 million Palestinian residents of the West Bank. But many now say that a dramatic increase in such barriers since the start of the war in Gaza has put towns and villages in a state of permanent siege. Experts like Talmiz Ahmad, a former ambassador to Oman, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, had underlined a number of provocations in the run up to the October 7 attack by Hamas, which included the surge in attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank. Send your feedback and ideas to
