Economic Headwinds In Asia Considered In Zespri's New Season Kiwifruit Forecasts
18 June 2025
Kiwifruit marketer Zespri has updated its indicative forecasts for the current kiwifruit season, as its 2800 growers examine how well licensed varieties will bear fruit for them.
Zespri was expecting another record crop for the 2025/26 season of around 200 million trays, more than half of which had already been shipped to global markets.
Average orchard returns per hectare for this season are steady or higher for most varieties, compared to last year's.
Orchard gate returns by varieties
The highest per hectare returns were seen across SunGold at $171,000-$187,000 and SunGold Organic at $154,000-$172,000.
Whereas, the lowest per hectare returns were for Green14 at $63,000-$75,000 and RubyRed at $74,000-$79,000.
Higher per hectare returns were forecast across most varieties, when compared to last year 24/25's average rates.
Most average returns per tray last season (2024/25) matched this season's forecast ranges - except for Organic SunGold and RubyRed, which were down. RubyRed was 75 cents lower per tray than last year.
Green kiwifruit had the lowest return at $8.25 to $9.25 a tray, while RubyRed had the highest sitting at $15.25 to $16.25 per tray.
Strong global demand but economic headwinds in Asia
Chief executive Jason te Brake said the sales programme for 2025/26 had started well, particularly in Europe and North America where it was seeing "strong demand".
He said forecasts reflected increased yields this season, improved fruit size for Green and RubyRed and extra SunGold and RubyRed volumes coming from new orchards.
"This forecast is encouraging, though there are some economic headwinds in Asia, including inflationary pressures in Japan and our teams are working hard to secure good value in generally softer market conditions," te Brake said.
"We've now shipped more than 110 million trays of Zespri Kiwifruit, which is over half this season's total crop, with RubyRed sales now complete. Our teams in New Zealand and in market are focused on continuing the positive momentum we've started the season with to deliver strong value back to our growers."
He said overall, the outlook was positive.
On a per hectare basis, all ranges increased on guidance provided in March, except for RubyRed which nudged down $3000 a hectare at the lower end of the range.
However, returns were forecast to fall for Green and Organic Green when compared to last season.
Grower shareholding set to increase
A recent report by University of Waikato Professor Frank Scrimgeour on the risks the kiwifruit industry was facing under current governance, highlighted concern that fewer than half of the 2800 growers supplying Zespri were shareholders.
"Shareholder interests are not identical to grower interests," Scrimgeour said in the report.
However, te Brake said provisional uptake of the recent share alignment initiatives meant more than 60 percent of growers will own Zespri shares, up from 48 percent.
"Aligning the commercial interests of growers - i.e. ensuring all growers and shareholders clearly see the benefit to them in new opportunities - will be critical to this.
"With strong demand and the industry continuing to perform well we are making the right steps set ourselves up for the future and we're committed to continuing to do so."
Last month, the kiwifruit marketer reported an after-tax profit of $155.2 million for the financial year, down 10 percent on last year to $173.3m.
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