
Japan PM Ishiba poised to announce resignation by Aug. following dismal election results
Ishiba is expected to have discussions the same day regarding his future with Taro Aso, the party's supreme adviser, Yoshihide Suga, the party's vice president, and former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida -- all former prime ministers. However, there is a possibility that the timing of his decision could change due to growing demands for his resignation and criticism from within the party.
Ishiba had initially expressed his intention to stay on as prime minister following the LDP's major setback in the election.
Local organizations in various regions are calling for Ishiba's resignation and a renewal of the party's structure. Additionally, mid-career and junior lawmakers are calling for the convening of a joint plenary meeting of party members of both houses of the Diet, the decision-making gathering next in line to the party convention, to vote on moving up the party leadership election.
In light of these circumstances, the prime minister aims to exchange views with the three former prime ministers, and to seek understanding for his move. It is unusual for an incumbent prime minister to meet with former prime ministers collectively. A government insider commented, "Prime Minister Ishiba is adopting a stance of bowing his head to the three."
The LDP leadership plans to move forward a joint informal meeting of party members of both houses, initially scheduled for July 31, to July 29 to start the election review. After the review is summarized in August, the party's leadership will determine how to take responsibility.
Seiji Kihara, the LDP's election strategy committee chairman, has indicated his intention to resign after the review and summary, and then a decision will also be made on the prime minister's future. A senior government official emphasized, "Once the review is out, the leadership must make a firm decision regarding responsibility."
If Ishiba resigns as prime minister this month, an election to select the next prime minister will be held during an extraordinary Diet session to be convened in August. However, given that the LDP is now part of a minority government, there is no guarantee that the LDP president will be picked as prime minister. To secure time for discussions with opposition parties regarding the prime ministerial nomination, Ishiba is considering announcing his resignation next month or later.
Ishiba had earlier cited Japan-U.S. tariff negotiations as a reason for staying in office. Regarding the effect of a newly announced accord on tariffs, he told reporters at the prime minister's office, "I cannot comment without thoroughly examining the content of the agreement."

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Japan Times
31 minutes ago
- Japan Times
Various tactics to force Ishiba out of power emerge within the LDP
Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers — fuming over Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba staying on despite losing a majority in the Upper House election — are coming up with various tactics to force him out of his post as soon as possible. The party has been thrown into a political power game between those who want Ishiba ousted immediately and those supporting the prime minister, who denied reports Wednesday that he will resign. One of the two tactics under discussion is to hold an official decision-making meeting of party lawmakers that requires the support of a third of them or more to be held. Currently, the party is expected to hold a less formal meeting of party lawmakers on Monday to discuss the outcome of the Upper House election. If Monday's meeting becomes an official one, it could give further momentum to the anti-Ishiba camp and a petition to hold an LDP leadership race could be submitted, among other options. On Friday, LDP lawmaker Hiroyoshi Sasagawa told reporters that he was able to gather enough signatures to hold an official meeting. The anti-Ishiba camp hopes that getting at least a third of the party lawmakers on board for the official meeting will pressure Ishiba to step down. A petition to hold the meeting has reportedly been signed by former members of the now-defunct factions that were led by party heavyweights Shinzo Abe and Toshimitsu Motegi, as well as those in the existing faction led by former Prime Minister Taro Aso. Meanwhile, some LDP lawmakers are going door to door in the political center of Nagatacho, collecting their colleagues' signatures for a petition to move the date for the party's presidential election forward from September 2027, when Ishiba's three-year term ends. Often described as the "recall provision,' a presidential race can be held if more than half of the combined number of LDP lawmakers and one representative from each local chapter asks for one. The provision, however, has never been invoked since it was introduced in 2002. The key would be how widely anti-Ishiba sentiment is spread within the party across the nation. Calls for Ishiba to resign, however, are already spreading among younger LDP lawmakers. The LDP's youth bureau submitted a letter to LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama on Friday demanding that Ishiba and the party's executive members take responsibility for the Upper House election results, effectively urging them to resign. The letter was submitted after 46 out of 47 LDP prefectural chapters participated in an online meeting with the party's youth bureau on Wednesday, in which the majority of participants agreed to submit a joint statement to party headquarters demanding the 'immediate' resignation and replacement of Ishiba and other party executives. Ishiba is set to make a decision on what to do once key events in August are over, including a commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the anniversary of the end of World War II on Aug. 15 and an international conference on African development in Yokohama from Aug. 20 to 22. On Friday, Ishiba met with ruling and opposition party leaders to update them on the tariff deal with the United States. But the meeting was overshadowed by a flood of news reports and speculation on what might happen to Ishiba. Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, told reporters that Ishiba did not mention anything about his current standing in the Friday meeting. On Wednesday, Ishiba denied reports that he would resign at the end of August after an unusual meeting at party headquarters with three former prime ministers — Aso, Yoshihide Suga and Fumio Kishida — hours after Japan and the United States reached the surprise trade agreement . Ishiba said the party heavyweights did not discuss his resignation, but one of the former prime ministers at the meeting revealed that none of them were supportive of Ishiba's continued leadership. Information from Jiji added


Japan Times
35 minutes ago
- Japan Times
Who will save the Liberal Democratic Party?
The Upper House election was a disaster for the Liberal Democratic Party. For the first time since its founding in 1955, the party must run a government with minority control of both houses of parliament, suffering back-to-back electoral defeats. The party is fragmented, its base is cracking and the old mechanisms used for staying in power are insufficient in the modern era. There is no denying that the LDP's ship is sinking and the crew needs saving. The party is now faced with two fundamental questions: what tasks must it accomplish to restore its political dominance and who is actually capable of accomplishing them? The LDP also has numerous tasks ahead: The first is to regain its base. While the LDP is a big tent party with politicians representing a range of center-left to right-wing ideas, the median policy platform has almost always been on the conservative side. But when the time came to pick a successor to Shinzo Abe, the LDP opted first for Yoshihide Suga, then for Fumio Kishida, neither of whom are from the party's conservative camps. Kishida further alienated the LDP's conservative base with the punishments he meted out in 2024 in response to the factions' money scandal. When public opinion worsened under Kishida, the party decided to go with a reform-minded candidate and picked Shigeru Ishiba. The moves failed to garner support from the public and they alienated many supporters. As a result, the LDP will need to regain its conservative base, many of whom have looked instead to the Democratic Party for the People, Sanseito and Nippon Ishin no Kai. The LDP must now woo them back. Success in this effort does not mean embracing populist dog whistling; rather, it means rallying behind a conservative leader who can outshine the likes of DPP's Yuichiro Tamaki and Sanseito's Sohei Kamiya. The second task for the LDP will be capturing the attention of the public. The old method of stump speeches and loudspeaker vans on the streets will not cut it anymore. With more voters turning to social media and video-sharing sites for political content, the LDP must fundamentally rethink its practices. Additionally, the standard for male-dominated LDP candidate lineups will not work, as there was a marked rise in the number of women who won in this recent election. The LDP must look for improved ways of recruiting strong female candidates and subsequently giving them meaningful opportunities to elevate their political stature. But these efforts will not mean anything if the LDP cannot accomplish the third task: formulating coherent policies that actually work to improve the lives of the average Japanese resident. The only thing that has saved the LDP up to this point is that none of the opposition parties have presented a viable alternative with coherent policy platforms. However, the public has now shown that they are increasingly willing to assume risk in backing the opposition. The LDP will not only need to create actionable policies, the various factions within the party must rally behind them. This leads to the last task: restructuring the party from within. When Kishida unilaterally upended the LDP's factional system, he did so without a substitute system ready to implement. Absent another mechanism for corralling the few hundred lawmakers, the decision fueled in-fighting and made the party less effective at a time when it needed to regain the public's trust. The situation has not improved under Ishiba. To rectify this, the party will need someone capable of managing internal politics and driving the reestablishment of a functional policy and power structure. The party's leader will not be able to do this by himself or herself; rather, it will take a trusted right hand who can manage that effort. So, who is capable of accomplishing these tasks for the LDP? Let's take a look at the prominent names in the debate. Taro Aso Former Prime Minister Taro Aso's name will continue to come up in discourse because of his long-standing prominence in the LDP. The grandson of famed postwar Prime Minister Shigeru Yoshida and the richest politician in parliament, Aso has significant influence inside the party and among the business community. Some LDP members may now look to Aso to use whatever influence he has left in the twilight of his career to pull things back together. While Aso may still have power to wield, it will only be useful within the party architecture. Aso's connections to old guard politics may be helpful in piecing together elements of a fragmented party and rekindling some support from the LDP's traditional base, but it will not capture the attention of the broader public. Aso has not shown a willingness to evolve to match present-day sensibilities and it is unlikely that he is prepared to do so now. Shinjiro Koizumi Koizumi's name has floated around the LDP as the potential next-generation leader since he first came onto the political scene in 2009. Son of the popular and effective former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, the 44-year-old politician has benefited from his polished looks and political legacy in staying relevant. This is partly why Ishiba turned to Koizumi to take over the agriculture minister role in May as a last-ditch effort to address soaring rice prices. But despite all of Koizumi's energy and effort in his Cabinet and subcabinet postings, he has no meaningful achievements to show for it. The public has continued to lose confidence that Koizumi can develop and implement effective policies, meaning that even if the party decided to throw its weight behind him, it would be for naught. Koizumi's inability to tackle important issues and to manage intraparty politics stand to exacerbate the LDP's woes further. Takayuki Kobayashi Nicknamed 'Kobahawk' as a play on words based on his name and political leanings, the former economic security minister has shown potential for taking on the LDP's dire situation. As a former finance ministry official, he has practical policy experience and he is popular among the LDP's conservative base. Further, his relative youth and nonpolitical family background positions him to rebrand the party in ways that other LDP politicians cannot. The lingering question for Kobayashi is whether he even wants to take the helm of a sinking ship. He is still young for a politician and can afford to wait for another opportunity when the circumstances are more favorable; after all, he may prefer to pursue his own desired policy agenda rather than being forced to manage the messy problems that already exist. Instead of attempting to seize the opportunity now, he may throw his weight behind another conservative party leader and earn a Cabinet posting to continue building his credentials. Sanae Takaichi Former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi appears to be the LDP's most viable option. She was already close to winning the last LDP leadership race and she has not hidden her ambitions for the country's top job. Other boons for her is that she was a protege of Shinzo Abe and that she is a staunch conservative who cites Margaret Thatcher (the U.K.'s 'Iron Lady') as a role model. Further, she does not carry any of the baggage associated with the LDP's former factions as she operated as an independent within the party. As a bonus for the LDP, if the party selects Takaichi to be its next leader, they will have the distinction of elevating the first woman to become prime minister of Japan. While Takaichi can potentially accomplish the first two tasks needed to save the LDP, the second two will be more difficult. Takaichi is well-positioned to regain the LDP's conservative base and to capture the attention of the public, but will she be able to implement an effective policy agenda and restructure the party at the same time? She has not had to manage in-fighting among the party heavyweights and former factions, and she will need a trusted second-in-command to help her do so. Her biggest question is who that may be. Michael MacArthur Bosack is the special adviser for government relations at the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies. He previously served in the Japanese government as a Mansfield fellow.


The Mainichi
2 hours ago
- The Mainichi
Editorial: LDP, Japan need new politics amid PM Ishiba's inevitable resignation
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's resignation has become unavoidable. The ruling coalition has now suffered crushing defeats in both chambers of the Diet, losing its majority. Having been handed a vote of no confidence by the electorate, this outcome is only natural. Following last autumn's loss in the House of Representatives election, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito again failed to secure a majority in this month's House of Councillors race. Including the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election in June, the Ishiba administration has now lost three major elections in a row. Yet even now, the prime minister insists, "What matters most is avoiding a paralysis of national politics," and clings to his post. Such remarks, which seem to ignore the weight of the election results, have sparked fierce backlash both inside and outside the party. LDP prefectural chapters across the country are demanding Ishiba's swift resignation. The movement to oust him has accelerated, with mid-level and younger lawmakers calling for the party leadership election to be moved up. Declaration to stay on ignores public will Ishiba, whose base within the party has always been weak, owed his past prominence in leadership races to strong support from local party members. But after repeated election defeats, even these supporters have abandoned him, leaving him politically cornered. With the resolution of Japan-U.S. negotiations over President Donald Trump's tariffs -- which Ishiba described as a "national crisis" -- now resolved, the prime minister's justification for staying on has also evaporated. Ishiba is expected to announce his resignation in response to the LDP's review of its upper house election defeat, which is to be compiled in August. Ishiba was originally chosen as prime minister in hopes of fundamentally reforming "LDP politics." For years, he had criticized the government from within the party for being out of touch with the public. But since taking office, he has appeared to be swallowed up by the LDP's old logic. He has betrayed the public's hopes for a fundamental change in the political status quo. The clearest example is the "money in politics" issue. Ishiba was reluctant to break with the LDP's money-driven culture, which came under fire in the party's factional slush fund scandal. Even after the lower house defeat, he showed little willingness to take responsibility, and sought to preserve corporate and organizational donations that could distort policy. As the nation's leader, Ishiba also failed to present a clear national vision. He kept his own views on diplomacy and national security under wraps, and even his signature regional revitalization policies amounted to little more than a rehash of past efforts. The "Ishiba touch" was never on display. When the LDP was reduced to a minority in the lower house, Ishiba called for a "deliberative Diet" in which ruling and opposition parties would scrutinize each other's proposals to produce better policies. In reality, however, he prioritized cobbling together enough votes to pass LDP legislation, repeatedly compromising in closed-door talks with some opposition parties. This was a clear case of saying one thing and doing another. The LDP has long weathered criticism by simply regularly swapping its leader. The public has seen through the Ishiba Cabinet as just another "pseudo-regime change," leading to widespread disappointment. Time to restore trust in politics The LDP has long led postwar politics as a national party that listens to a wide range of voices. The upper house election has laid bare that this foundation is dissolving. Support groups have weakened, and the old method of exchanging policy favors for "votes and money" no longer works. During the "lost 30 years" following the collapse of Japan's bubble economy in the early 1990s, the party failed to directly address the public's anxiety about their daily lives. As a result, emerging parties have siphoned off support from young people, independents and the middle class, who believe Japan's vitality has been sapped. In the increasingly multiparty upper house, both ruling and opposition parties engaged in a "battle of appeals" during the latest election, touting policies including tax cuts and tougher immigration controls with little regard for funding. But drifting toward such easy populism will prevent the LDP from fulfilling its responsibilities as a governing party. The party must also confront medium- and long-term challenges head-on, such as building a sustainable social security system for a shrinking population, restoring fiscal health, and responding to growing international tensions. Such efforts will also lead to the stabilization of people's lives for the future and the restoration of trust in politics. The real question for the LDP now is whether it can achieve true self-reform and be reborn as a new national party. Simply changing the party leader to create an illusion of renewal will not work. If the LDP does not intend to hand over power to the opposition, it must present a new, broadly supported government framework and a clear direction for the country.