Padres at Marlins Prediction: Odds, expert picks, starting pitchers, betting trends and stats for July 21
San Diego and Miami opened the second-half of the season with winning two out of three against their opponents. The Padres beat the Nationals outscoring them 17-7 over three games whereas the Marlins and Royals tied at 15 runs apiece.
This is the second series of the season between the two as they met in San Diego for a three-game series already. The Padres won two out three games, but the Marlins took the finale, 10-8. San Diego edged out Miami, 20-19 in runs scored over that series.
Let's dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two. We've got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
Follow Rotoworld Player News for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long.
Game details & how to watch Padres at Marlins
Date: Monday, July 21, 2025
Time: 6:40PM EST
Site: LoanDepot Park
City: Miami, FL
Network/Streaming: SDPA, FDSNFL
Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.
Odds for the Padres at the Marlins
The latest odds as of Monday:
Moneyline: Padres (+112), Marlins (-133)
Spread: Marlins -1.5
Total: 8.0 runs
Probable starting pitchers for Padres at Marlins
Pitching matchup for July 21, 2025: Randy Vásquez vs. Eury Pérez
Padres: Randy Vásquez, (3-4, 3.80 ERA)
Last outing: Innings Pitched, Earned Runs Allowed, Hits Allowed, Walks, and StrikeoutsMarlins: Eury Pérez, (3-2, 3.18 ERA)
Last outing: 7.0 Innings Pitched, 0 Earned Runs Allowed, 3 Hits Allowed, 0 Walks, and 6 Strikeouts
Padres: Randy Vásquez, (3-4, 3.80 ERA)
Last outing: Innings Pitched, Earned Runs Allowed, Hits Allowed, Walks, and Strikeouts
Marlins: Eury Pérez, (3-2, 3.18 ERA)
Last outing: 7.0 Innings Pitched, 0 Earned Runs Allowed, 3 Hits Allowed, 0 Walks, and 6 Strikeouts
Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!
Expert picks & predictions for tonight's game between the Padres and the Marlins
'Looking at the second half of the year per Tankathon, San Diego has the 4th-easiest strength of schedule remaining
The Padres open the second-half with three games at the Nationals, three more at the Marlins, then to St. Louis for three more road games as part of a nine-game East Coast road trip. However, we have to admit, those are decent matchups to have a winning record across for a 9-game road trip — in other words, it could be much worse.
After that nine-game road trip, the next 27 games will be on the West Coast for San Diego, whether they are in California, Arizona or Washington (the state). San Diego will be in a prime position to make a run at the playoffs, but I still haven't gotten to the best part.
The final month of the season is a great opportunity for the Padres to gain ground too -- in the final 28 games -- 13 of those are against the Orioles, White Sox, and Rockies!
I love the Padres to make the postseason as a second-half futures bet.'
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Monday's game between the Padres and the Marlins:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the San Diego Padres at +1.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 8.0.
Want even more MLB best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert MLB Predictions page from NBC.
Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Padres at Marlins
San Diego is 12-7 when Vasquez pitches this season
Miami is 5-2 when Perez pitches this season
The Padres have won 13 of their last 20 games against teams with losing records
5 of the Marlins' last 7 matchups with the Padres have gone over the Total
The Marlins have covered in 4 of their last 5 games showing a profit of 1.42 units
If you're looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Chicago Tribune
10 minutes ago
- Chicago Tribune
MLB trade deadline: Houston Astros reunite with Carlos Correa, while San Diego Padres swing several deals
Major League Baseball's trade deadline brought plenty of chaos Thursday, with dozens of deals capping a frenetic 24 hours as teams sought to improve their rosters ahead of the postseason. Among the highlights: All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa is reuniting with the Houston Astros, the San Diego Padres went on a trading spree that brought in hard-throwing closer Mason Miller and the New York Yankees grabbed two-time All-Star reliever David Bednar. In other moves, outfielder Cedric Mullins was dealt to the New York Mets and former Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber is joining the Toronto Blue Jays. The recent swaps are on top of several deals over the past few days — including the Seattle Mariners landing slugger Eugenio Suarez — and the final hours saw a whirlwind of activity as teams made trades right up until the 5 p.m. CDT deadline. Trades were still rolling in as the deadline passed, but here are some highlights from Thursday. Correa is returning to Houston in a deal with the Minnesota Twins, giving the franchise a boost as it tries to stay atop the AL West. Correa spent his first seven years in Houston, where he became one of the most beloved players in franchise history. He helped the team to six playoff appearances, three American League pennants and its first World Series title in 2017 — a championship tainted by a sign-stealing scandal. The Twins also are sending $33 million to offset the $103.4 million left on Correa's contract, which runs through 2028. The Twins will receive minor-league pitcher Matt Mikulski in return. Correa has played exclusively shortstop in his 11-year MLB career but almost certainly will move to third base with shortstop Jeremy Peña close to returning from the injured list. The Astros need help at the hot corner with All-Star Isaac Paredes out indefinitely with a hamstring injury. The 30-year-old Correa has had a down season by his standards, batting .267 with seven homers and 31 RBIs. The 26-year-old Miller is one of the game's top relievers and has a fastball that averages more than 101 mph. The 2024 All-Star has 20 saves in 23 opportunities, a 3.76 ERA and 59 strikeouts this season. He's under team control through 2029. The Padres also added JP Sears, a lefty who has a 7-9 record and 4.95 ERA this season, striking out 95 batters in 22 starts. They sent the Athletics a package of prospects, including highly regarded shortstop Leo De Vries and right-handed pitchers Henry Baez, Braden Nett and Eduarniel Nunez. The active Padres also acquired catcher Freddy Fermin from the Kansas City Royals. Mullins give the Mets an upgrade in center field, where Tyrone Taylor was playing terrific defense but providing little offense. The 30-year-old Mullins — who was an All-Star in 2021 — was batting .229 with 15 homers, 49 RBIs and 14 stolen bases for the Baltimore Orioles. Versatile veteran Jeff McNeil also has been getting starts in center because of his bat, but he has much more experience at second base and the corner outfield spots. The last-place Orioles received right-handers Raimon Gómez, Anthony Nunez and Chandler Marsh. Looking to fortify their bullpen for the stretch run, the Yankees agreed to acquire Bednar from the Pittsburgh Pirates and Jake Bird from the Colorado Rockies. They also acquired utilityman José Caballero from the Tampa Bay Rays. The Yankees were set to send catcher/first base prospect Rafael Flores, catcher Edgleen Perez and outfielder Brian Sanchez to the Pirates in exchange for Bednar, according to a person familiar with the deal. The person spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity because the deal had not been announced. The Yankees sent infielder Roc Riggio and lefty Ben Shields to the Rockies for Bird and outfielder Everson Pereira to the Rays. The 30-year-old Bednar struggled early in the season and spent some time in the minors but has been dominant since his return. He joins a bullpen that already has Luke Weaver and Devin Williams. Bird has a 4.73 ERA and 62 strikeouts in 53 1/3 innings. They were the fourth, fifth and sixth trades the Yankees made since Friday. They obtained third baseman Ryan McMahon from the Rockies on Friday, reserve infielder Amed Rosario from the Washington Nationals on Saturday and reserve outfielder Austin Slater from the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday. Bieber is headed to the AL East-leading Blue Jays in a deal with the rebuilding Cleveland Guardians. Bieber, who is working his way back from April 2024 Tommy John surgery, has made five rehab starts. His most recent outing was Tuesday for Double-A Akron, in which he allowed one run on three hits and struck out seven in four innings. His next rehab start was scheduled for Sunday. The Guardians are getting right-hander Khal Stephen from the Blue Jays. Toronto also got righty reliever Louis Varland and first baseman Ty France from the Twins for rookie outfielder Alan Roden and minor-league starter Kendry Rojas. Bieber had spent his entire career in Cleveland, including winning the AL Cy Young Award in 2020. He has a career record of 62-32 with a 3.22 ERA and 958 strikeouts in 136 games (134 starts) since his debut in 2018. He agreed to a one-year, $14 million contract last fall with a $16 million player option for 2026. The Philadelphia Phillies got outfielder Harrison Bader in exchange for two minor-leaguers. It was the team's second deal with the Twins in two days after landing closer Jhoan Duran. The 31-year-old Bader, a 2021 Gold Glove winner, remains a strong defender at all three outfield spots and has 12 home runs, 38 RBIs and a .778 OPS in 96 games. He also has postseason experience, playing in five playoff series with the St. Louis Cardinals, Yankees and Mets with a .809 OPS and five career homers. The Phillies are sending minor-league outfielder Hendry Mendez and right-hander Geremy Villoria to the Twins for Bader. The AL Central-leading Detroit Tigers acquired Kyle Finnegan from the Nationals for two prospects, a person familiar with the deal told The Associated Press. The person spoke on condition of anonymity because the trade wasn't announced. The 33-year-old Finnegan was an All-Star in 2024 but his velocity has been down this season. He has 20 saves with a 4.38 ERA in 2025. The Nats received minor-league pitchers Josh Randall and R.J. Sales, Detroit's third- and 10th-round draft picks from 2024. The Tigers also added right-hander Paul Sewald in a deal with the Guardians and minor-league righty Codi Heuer in a trade with the Texas Rangers. The 35-year-old Sewald is eligible to return from the injured list on Sunday after being shut down with a strained right shoulder. He is 1-1 with a 4.70 ERA in 18 games this season, averaging more than one strikeout each inning.
Miami Herald
10 minutes ago
- Miami Herald
Marlins keep Alcantara and Cabrera, deal Sanchez. Insight into their thinking
The Marlins, who have won 11 of their past 12 series and climbed within three games of .500, opted to hang onto their best players before Thursday's Major League Baseball trade deadline. Miami, which went 15-10 in July and stands third in the National League at 52-55, kept pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera, who attracted considerable interest from other teams. The Marlins also kept together a bullpen that has been generally effective, including Anthony Bender, Calvin Faucher and Ronny Henriquez. According to a source, the Marlins kept Alcantara and Cabrera because they wanted to take a disciplined approach to this trade deadline and also because no team met an extremely high asking price for either player. The Marlins' strong play in recent weeks also contributed to the decision to keep those two players, pitcher Cal Quantrill and the entire bullpen. The Marlins made only one trade, sending Jesus Sanchez -- their longest tenured outfielder -- to Houston in exchange for right-handed pitcher Ryan Gusto and two prospects - shortstop Chase Jaworsky (Houston's No. 13 prospect, per and outfielder Esmil Valencia. According to a source, the Marlins dealt Sanchez because they want to give a chance to Jakob Marsee, who was acquired in last year's Luis Arraez trade with San Diego. He could be promoted at any time. The 24-year-old Marsee, a former sixth-round pick and left-handed hitter, is batting .246 (.379 on base average) with 14 homers, 37 RBI, 14 doubles and 47 steals in 60 attempts in 98 games at Triple A Jacksonville. Gusto is expected to join Triple A Jacksonville because there are no open spots on the Marlins pitching staff and the organization wants him to remain a starter. He has a similar wins over replacement as Sanchez and is under team control for six years. The Marlins see Jaworsky as a well-rounded prospect with good bat to ball skills. The Marlins' outfield now will feature All Star Kyle Stowers, Dane Myers, potentially Marsee and Heriberto Hernandez. Here are more details on the Sanchez trade. Alcantara - who has had a rocky season while returning from Tommy John surgery - hasn't allowed a run in his past 12 innings over two starts, and there was a robust trade market for both him and Cabrera, who has delivered the best season of his career season. Cabrera's 3.35 ERA in 18 starts ranks 14th among National League starters. Both pitchers are under team control for at least two more seasons. Alcantara, 29, is making $17.3 million this season and next season, with a $21 million team option for 2027. Cabrera, 27, is arbitration-eligible for the next two seasons. Alcantara, who won the 2022 National League Cy Young award, stands first all time among Marlins starters in walks and hits per innings pitched (1.19), second in strikeouts with 870 and third in both complete games (12) and ERA (3.65). He will now have a chance to build on those numbers. This season, he's 6-9 with a 6.36 ERA in 21 starts, with 155 base-runners allowed in 109 innings. By also keeping all of their relief pitchers as well as veteran starter Cal Quantrill (who has allowed one earned run in his past three starts, spanning 16 innings), the Marlins kept intact a pitching staff that finished July with a combined 2.60 ERA, the best mark in July in club history and the second-best ERA in any month, trailing only April 2005, when the pitching staff had a 2.28 ERA. Starters Alcantara, Cabrera, Eury Perez, Quantrill and Janson Junk have all pitched well recently. Junk, who is 5-2 with a 3.38 ERA, is expected to pitch the opener of a much-anticipated home series against the New York Yankees at 7:10 p.m. Friday. Perez (3-3, 3.07) is scheduled to pitch Game 2 at 4:10 p.m. Saturday at loanDepot Park and Cabrera is scheduled to take the mound Sunday's 1:40 p.m. series finale. Alcantara and Quantrill will then take their rotation turns in night games against visiting Houston on Monday and Tuesday. Beside the current rotation, Miami has strong pitching depth in the system, with prospects Thomas White, Adam Mazur and Robby Snelling. Ryan Weathers, who has been out since early June with a lat strain, is expected back later this season. White, rated by as the Marlins' No. 1 prospect, had 14 strikeouts in five scoreless innings in a recent start for Double A Pensacola. And next spring, the Marlins will get back Braxton Garrett (returning next season from last December's elbow surgery) and Max Meyer, who had a 4.73 ERA in 12 starts before season-ending hip surgery. The Marlins entered Thursday seven games back of San Diego for the National League's final wild card spot, but also behind the Reds, Cardinals and Giants, the three other teams chasing the Padres.
NBC Sports
11 minutes ago
- NBC Sports
MLB trade deadline tracker: Astros reunite with Carlos Correa, Padres swing several deals
Major League Baseball's trade deadline brought plenty of chaos Thursday, with dozens of deals capping a frenetic 24 hours as teams sought to improve their rosters ahead of the postseason. Among the highlights: All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa is reuniting with the Houston Astros, the San Diego Padres went on a trading spree that brought in hard-throwing closer Mason Miller and the New York Yankees grabbed two-time All-Star reliever David Bednar. In other moves, outfielder Cedric Mullins was dealt to the New York Mets while former Cy Young award winner Shane Bieber is joining the Toronto Blue Jays. The recent swaps are on top of several deals over the past few days - including the Mariners landing slugger Eugenio Suarez - and the final hours saw a whirlwind of activity as teams made trades right up until the 6 p.m. EDT deadline. Trades were still rolling in as the deadline passed but here are some highlights from Thursday: Astros reunite with Carlos Correa, giving club familiar veteran Correa is returning to Houston in a deal with the Minnesota Twins, giving the franchise a boost as it tries to stay atop the AL West, according to a person with direct knowledge. The person spoke to The Associated Press on the condition of anonymity because the deal hadn't been announced. Correa spent his first seven years in Houston, where he became one of the most beloved players in franchise history, helping the team to six playoff appearances, three American League pennants and its first World Series title in 2017 - a championship tainted by a sign-stealing scandal. Correa has exclusively played shortstop in his 11-year MLB career but will almost certainly move to third base with shortstop Jeremy Peña close to returning from the injured list. The Astros need help at the hot corner with All-Star Isaac Paredes out indefinitely with a hamstring injury. The 30-year-old Correa has had a down season by his standards, batting .267 with seven homers and 31 RBIs. He's under contract through 2028. Active Padres add All-Star Mason Miller and others The 26-year-old Miller is one of the game's top relievers and has a fastball that averages more than 101 mph. The 2024 All-Star has 20 saves in 23 opportunities, a 3.76 ERA and 59 strikeouts this season. He's under team control through 2029. The Padres also added JP Sears, a lefty who has a 7-9 record and 4.95 ERA this season, striking out 95 batters over 22 starts. San Diego sent the A's a package of prospects, including highly-regarded shortstop Leo De Vries and right-handed pitchers Henry Baez, Braden Nett and Eduarniel Nunez. The active Padres also acquired catcher Freddy Fermin from the Kansas City Royals. Mets get needed boost in center field with Baltimore's Cedric Mullins Mullins give the Mets an upgrade in center field, where Tyrone Taylor was playing terrific defense but providing little offense. The 30-year-old Mullins - who was an All-Star in 2021 - is batting .229 with 15 homers, 49 RBIs and 14 stolen bases. Versatile veteran Jeff McNeil has also been getting starts in center because of his bat, but he has much more experience at second base and the corner outfield spots. The last-place Orioles received right-handers Raimon Gómez, Anthony Nunez and Chandler Marsh. Yankees add to bullpen, acquire Bednar from Pirates, Bird from Rockies Looking to fortify their bullpen for the stretch run, the Yankees agreed to acquire Bednar from Pittsburgh and Jake Bird from Colorado. New York was set to send catcher/first base prospect Rafael Flores, catcher Edgleen Perez and outfielder Brian Sanchez to the Pirates in exchange for Bednar, according to a person familiar with the deal. The person spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity because the deal had not been announced. The Yankees sent infielder Roc Riggio and lefty Ben Shields to the Rockies for Bird. The 30-year-old Bednar struggled early in the season and spent some time in the minors but has been dominant since his return. He joins a bullpen that already has Luke Weaver and Devin Williams. Bird has a 4.73 ERA and 62 strikeouts over 53 1/3 innings. They were the fourth and fifth trades made by the Yankees since last Friday. They obtained third baseman Ryan McMahon from Colorado on Friday, reserve infielder Amed Rosario from Washington on Saturday and reserve outfielder Austin Slater from the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday. Shane Bieber off to Blue Jays, nearing MLB return Bieber is headed to the AL East-leading Blue Jays in a deal with the rebuilding Cleveland Guardians. Bieber, who is working his way back from April 2024 Tommy John surgery, has made five rehab starts. His most recent outing was Tuesday for Double-A Akron, in which he allowed one run on three hits and struck out seven in four innings. His next rehab start was scheduled for Sunday. The Guardians are getting right-hander Khal Stephen from the Blue Jays. Bieber had spent his entire career in Cleveland, including winning the AL Cy Young Award in 2020. He has a career record of 62-32 with a 3.22 ERA and 958 strikeouts in 136 games, with 134 starts since his debut in 2018. He agreed to a one-year, $14 million contract last fall with a $16 million player option for 2026. Phillies stay aggressive, add OF Harrison Bader in deal with Twins The Phillies got outfielder Harrison Bader in exchange for two minor leaguers. It is the team's second deal with the Minnesota Twins in two days after landing closer Jhoan Duran. The 31-year-old Bader, a 2021 Gold Glove winner, remains a strong defender at all three outfield spots and has 12 home runs, 38 RBIs and a .778 OPS in 96 games. He also has postseason experience, playing in five playoff series with the Cardinals, Yankees and Mets with a .809 OPS and five career homers. The Phillies are sending minor league outfielder Hendry Mendez and right-hander Geremy Villoria to the Twins for Bader. Tigers pry closer Kyle Finnegan from Nationals, also add Paul Sewald, Codi Heuer AL Central-leading Detroit acquired Kyle Finnegan from Washington for two prospects, a person familiar with the deal told The Associated Press. The person spoke on condition of anonymity because the trade wasn't announced. The 33-year-old Finnegan was an All-Star in 2024 but his velocity has been down this season. He has 20 saves with a 4.38 ERA in 2025. The Nats received minor league pitchers Josh Randall and R.J. Sales, Detroit's third and 10th round draft picks from 2024, respectively. The Tigers also added right-hander Paul Sewald in a deal with the Guardians and minor-league righty Codi Heuer in a trade with the Rangers. The 35-year-old Sewald is eligible to return from the injured list on Sunday after being shut down with a strained right shoulder. He is 1-1 with a 4.70 ERA in 18 games this season, averaging more than one strikeout each inning. Cubs add more pitching, trade for Andrew Kittredge from Orioles The Cubs continued seek help on the mound, adding right-hander Andrew Kittredge from the Baltimore Orioles one day after agreeing to a deal with the Washington Nationals for righty Michael Soroka. The 35-year-old Kittredge was an All-Star in 2021 and has a 3.44 ERA over nine seasons. The reliever has a 3.45 ERA in 31 games this season. He signed a $9 million, one-year deal with Baltimore last offseason that includes a $9 million club option for 2026 with a $1 million buyout. Other deals, notes - The Rays acquired catcher Hunter Feduccia from the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for right-handed pitcher Paul Gervase, catcher Ben Rortvedt and left-handed pitcher Adam Serwinowski. - The Dodgers acquired outfielder Alex Call from the Washington Nationals for minor leaguer right-handers Eriq Swan and Sean Paul Liñan. - The Angels took infielder Oswald Peraza from the Yankees for minor league outfielder Wilberson de Peña and international bonus pool money. - The Reds acquired utility player Miguel Andujar from the Athletics in exchange for right-hander Kenya Huggins. - The Rangers added left-handed reliever Danny Coulombe from the Twins in exchange for minor league left-hander Garrett Horn. - Baltimore put right-hander Zach Eflin on the injured list with lower back discomfort Thursday. Eflin was a potential trade target, but has made only 14 starts this year and is on an expiring contract.
