Upward spending trend unlikely to shift needle on rates
All eyes will be on the monthly spending indicator for June as it becomes the main measure of retail trade when published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday.
Household spending rose 0.9 per cent in May when consumers splashed out on clothes, shoes and new vehicles with borrowing easier since the RBA began cutting rates in February.
This trend is expected to have continued in June, with Commonwealth Bank economists predicting a rise of one per cent.
The data could seal the deal for the central bank's August interest rate decision following a rise in unemployment in June and a fall in inflation for the quarter, with the trimmed mean figure dropping from 2.9 per cent to 2.7 per cent.
RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser on Thursday hailed the "very welcome" data, as the central bank had been searching for more evidence of inflation returning to the midpoint of its two to three per cent target band.
A host of new and increased US tariffs are expected to come into effect later in the week after nations scrambled to try lock down trade negotiations with President Donald Trump ahead of his August 1 deadline.
Australia has been spared a higher tariff and though most of its goods will continue to face a 10 per cent levy, no US trading partner has a lower rate.
This continuation is a "relief" according to AMP chief economist Shane Oliver, who noted Mr Trump has previously foreshadowed further tariffs on pharmaceuticals - one of Australia's biggest exports to the US.
Increased tariffs on Australia's trading partners could also have indirect impacts for the domestic financial markets.
"The surge in US tariffs still poses a significant threat to the global economy, which will likely become more evident in the months ahead," Mr Oliver said.
Wall Street investors were feeling the pinch on Friday as new tariffs on dozens of trading partners and a surprisingly weak jobs report spurred selling pressure.
The S&P suffered its biggest daily percentage decline in more than two months, with an 8.3 per cent tumble in Amazon.com shares after it posted quarterly results but failed to meet lofty expectations for its cloud computing unit also weighing on equities.
Australian share futures dropped 32 points, or 0.37 per cent, to 16,231.
The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index on Friday dropped 80.8 points, or 0.92 per cent, to 8,662.0, while the broader All Ordinaries fell 81.9 points, or 0.91 per cent, to 8,917.1.
Profit reporting season also begins this week, with major companies such as News Corp, AMP and QBE Insurance set to reveal earnings results.
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The Advertiser
2 hours ago
- The Advertiser
The solution to Australia's skills shortage hiding in plain sight
In Australia today, like the proverbial chameleon in the crowd, there is an issue and its solution hiding in plain sight. Migrants and refugees are struggling to get jobs that befit their skills and experience. At the same time, we have a critical skills shortage. Migrants and refugees face barriers, including a lack of local experience and networks, English language proficiency or pronunciation and a lack of familiarity with Australian workplace culture and the job market. There are also difficulties and barriers, including exorbitant costs, in getting overseas qualifications recognised in Australia. These structural barriers inhibit positive migrant and refugee career outcomes. Also, employers can be reticent or unsure about hiring migrants and refugees, and mainstream employment services often are either not accessible or unsuited to migrants and refugees. Easily available statistics and research paint a picture of the effect of this situation. Migrants from non-English-speaking countries suffer persistent wage gaps, and overseas-educated migrants earn less than similarly qualified Australians, particularly those from culturally diverse backgrounds. Poor English can affect employment, with 44 per cent of migrants and refugees working below their skill level, even though 57 per cent of them hold university qualifications. And strong accents or a lack of knowledge of local industry jargon exacerbates the problem. At the same time, we know there are critical workforce shortages across a plethora of sectors. The current shortfall of GPs in Australia will rise to 3900 in 2028 and to more than 8900 in 2028; and the undersupply of nurses will rise to almost 80,000 by 2035. Engineers Australia has reported that the nation's engineering skills and labour shortage are at their highest level in a decade. And Master Builders Australia says 130,000 extra tradies will be needed by 2029 to meet the growing demand for new housing. The Commonwealth government's Jobs and Skills Australia agency has estimated that 67 occupations covered by the Technicians and Trades Workers category are in chronic and long-term shortage, representing about one-third of all skills shortages across the country. These shortages are pushing up construction costs and are worse in rural and regional areas, many of which are vulnerable to natural disasters. The boom in renewable energy, data centres to support AI and major infrastructure projects as well as our aging populations and increased demand in care sectors mean these shortages are neither short term nor geographically limited. Making matters worse is global competition for skilled migrants, competition between states within Australia for workers with critical skills and the leakage of skilled workers from regional areas to the cities. But this situation is also an economic opportunity for Australia. Better harnessing the skills and experience of migrants would deliver economic dividends through addressing professional workforce shortages, boosting productivity and reducing the overall cost of creating the professional workforce we need. This is evidenced in some simple numbers. It costs Australia anywhere from $180,000 to $500,000 - including Commonwealth Place Supported funding - to produce a registered doctor. For overseas trained medicos, that figure is around $28,500 - and it could be lower with more streamlined qualifications recognition. Better utilising migrant and refugee skills would also deliver a social dividend through the better integration of newcomers into the community, thus bolstering social cohesion and further supporting disadvantaged cohorts of migrants and refugees. To do this, we need to address the three pillars of the problem: providing access to gap training and qualification recognition; preparing people for Australia's workplace culture and environment; and addressing employer attitudes and bias toward international skills. Practically, this provides a collective approach to reduce the cost and simplify the processes for requalification and qualification, with clearly communicated pathways. We need to support employers to be more confident about overseas-trained staff through incentives and programs to address discrimination. This includes our looking at our recruitment practices and critically assessing whether they are a barrier to accessing migrant talent. We need to support migrants and refugees with job readiness training initiatives, such as the Skilled Professional Migrant Program delivered by my organisation, AMES Australia. Recently, we commissioned an economist to run the numbers on the effect of a national rollout of the program, a scheme that has a proven record of supporting migrants and refugees into jobs commensurate with their skills and qualifications. The paper, produced by Dr Ian Pringle, found utilising the skills and experience migrants and refugees bring with them could benefit Australia's economy by as much as $10 billion over five years. It found that supporting new arrivals to re-establish their professional careers in Australia could generate more than $2.5 billion in extra tax receipts as well as an extra $8 billion in earnings circulating in the economy over five years. What's more is that the extra access to skills could also produce a 10 per cent spike in productivity. The skills gap is an issue that has evolved again and again over time. Historically, Australia's response has been a siloed approach when what we have is an economic problem that needs a systemic all-of-the-economy response. It's a problem that we have identified but failed to properly pin down and solve over decades. That's the reason why Australia needs a national and integrated initiative to harness the skills of migrants and refugees, while reaping the economic and social benefits that it would bring before that chameleon changes its colour and disappears into the crowd again. In Australia today, like the proverbial chameleon in the crowd, there is an issue and its solution hiding in plain sight. Migrants and refugees are struggling to get jobs that befit their skills and experience. At the same time, we have a critical skills shortage. Migrants and refugees face barriers, including a lack of local experience and networks, English language proficiency or pronunciation and a lack of familiarity with Australian workplace culture and the job market. There are also difficulties and barriers, including exorbitant costs, in getting overseas qualifications recognised in Australia. These structural barriers inhibit positive migrant and refugee career outcomes. Also, employers can be reticent or unsure about hiring migrants and refugees, and mainstream employment services often are either not accessible or unsuited to migrants and refugees. Easily available statistics and research paint a picture of the effect of this situation. Migrants from non-English-speaking countries suffer persistent wage gaps, and overseas-educated migrants earn less than similarly qualified Australians, particularly those from culturally diverse backgrounds. Poor English can affect employment, with 44 per cent of migrants and refugees working below their skill level, even though 57 per cent of them hold university qualifications. And strong accents or a lack of knowledge of local industry jargon exacerbates the problem. At the same time, we know there are critical workforce shortages across a plethora of sectors. The current shortfall of GPs in Australia will rise to 3900 in 2028 and to more than 8900 in 2028; and the undersupply of nurses will rise to almost 80,000 by 2035. Engineers Australia has reported that the nation's engineering skills and labour shortage are at their highest level in a decade. And Master Builders Australia says 130,000 extra tradies will be needed by 2029 to meet the growing demand for new housing. The Commonwealth government's Jobs and Skills Australia agency has estimated that 67 occupations covered by the Technicians and Trades Workers category are in chronic and long-term shortage, representing about one-third of all skills shortages across the country. These shortages are pushing up construction costs and are worse in rural and regional areas, many of which are vulnerable to natural disasters. The boom in renewable energy, data centres to support AI and major infrastructure projects as well as our aging populations and increased demand in care sectors mean these shortages are neither short term nor geographically limited. Making matters worse is global competition for skilled migrants, competition between states within Australia for workers with critical skills and the leakage of skilled workers from regional areas to the cities. But this situation is also an economic opportunity for Australia. Better harnessing the skills and experience of migrants would deliver economic dividends through addressing professional workforce shortages, boosting productivity and reducing the overall cost of creating the professional workforce we need. This is evidenced in some simple numbers. It costs Australia anywhere from $180,000 to $500,000 - including Commonwealth Place Supported funding - to produce a registered doctor. For overseas trained medicos, that figure is around $28,500 - and it could be lower with more streamlined qualifications recognition. Better utilising migrant and refugee skills would also deliver a social dividend through the better integration of newcomers into the community, thus bolstering social cohesion and further supporting disadvantaged cohorts of migrants and refugees. To do this, we need to address the three pillars of the problem: providing access to gap training and qualification recognition; preparing people for Australia's workplace culture and environment; and addressing employer attitudes and bias toward international skills. Practically, this provides a collective approach to reduce the cost and simplify the processes for requalification and qualification, with clearly communicated pathways. We need to support employers to be more confident about overseas-trained staff through incentives and programs to address discrimination. This includes our looking at our recruitment practices and critically assessing whether they are a barrier to accessing migrant talent. We need to support migrants and refugees with job readiness training initiatives, such as the Skilled Professional Migrant Program delivered by my organisation, AMES Australia. Recently, we commissioned an economist to run the numbers on the effect of a national rollout of the program, a scheme that has a proven record of supporting migrants and refugees into jobs commensurate with their skills and qualifications. The paper, produced by Dr Ian Pringle, found utilising the skills and experience migrants and refugees bring with them could benefit Australia's economy by as much as $10 billion over five years. It found that supporting new arrivals to re-establish their professional careers in Australia could generate more than $2.5 billion in extra tax receipts as well as an extra $8 billion in earnings circulating in the economy over five years. What's more is that the extra access to skills could also produce a 10 per cent spike in productivity. The skills gap is an issue that has evolved again and again over time. Historically, Australia's response has been a siloed approach when what we have is an economic problem that needs a systemic all-of-the-economy response. It's a problem that we have identified but failed to properly pin down and solve over decades. That's the reason why Australia needs a national and integrated initiative to harness the skills of migrants and refugees, while reaping the economic and social benefits that it would bring before that chameleon changes its colour and disappears into the crowd again. In Australia today, like the proverbial chameleon in the crowd, there is an issue and its solution hiding in plain sight. Migrants and refugees are struggling to get jobs that befit their skills and experience. At the same time, we have a critical skills shortage. Migrants and refugees face barriers, including a lack of local experience and networks, English language proficiency or pronunciation and a lack of familiarity with Australian workplace culture and the job market. There are also difficulties and barriers, including exorbitant costs, in getting overseas qualifications recognised in Australia. These structural barriers inhibit positive migrant and refugee career outcomes. Also, employers can be reticent or unsure about hiring migrants and refugees, and mainstream employment services often are either not accessible or unsuited to migrants and refugees. Easily available statistics and research paint a picture of the effect of this situation. Migrants from non-English-speaking countries suffer persistent wage gaps, and overseas-educated migrants earn less than similarly qualified Australians, particularly those from culturally diverse backgrounds. Poor English can affect employment, with 44 per cent of migrants and refugees working below their skill level, even though 57 per cent of them hold university qualifications. And strong accents or a lack of knowledge of local industry jargon exacerbates the problem. At the same time, we know there are critical workforce shortages across a plethora of sectors. The current shortfall of GPs in Australia will rise to 3900 in 2028 and to more than 8900 in 2028; and the undersupply of nurses will rise to almost 80,000 by 2035. Engineers Australia has reported that the nation's engineering skills and labour shortage are at their highest level in a decade. And Master Builders Australia says 130,000 extra tradies will be needed by 2029 to meet the growing demand for new housing. The Commonwealth government's Jobs and Skills Australia agency has estimated that 67 occupations covered by the Technicians and Trades Workers category are in chronic and long-term shortage, representing about one-third of all skills shortages across the country. These shortages are pushing up construction costs and are worse in rural and regional areas, many of which are vulnerable to natural disasters. The boom in renewable energy, data centres to support AI and major infrastructure projects as well as our aging populations and increased demand in care sectors mean these shortages are neither short term nor geographically limited. Making matters worse is global competition for skilled migrants, competition between states within Australia for workers with critical skills and the leakage of skilled workers from regional areas to the cities. But this situation is also an economic opportunity for Australia. Better harnessing the skills and experience of migrants would deliver economic dividends through addressing professional workforce shortages, boosting productivity and reducing the overall cost of creating the professional workforce we need. This is evidenced in some simple numbers. It costs Australia anywhere from $180,000 to $500,000 - including Commonwealth Place Supported funding - to produce a registered doctor. For overseas trained medicos, that figure is around $28,500 - and it could be lower with more streamlined qualifications recognition. Better utilising migrant and refugee skills would also deliver a social dividend through the better integration of newcomers into the community, thus bolstering social cohesion and further supporting disadvantaged cohorts of migrants and refugees. To do this, we need to address the three pillars of the problem: providing access to gap training and qualification recognition; preparing people for Australia's workplace culture and environment; and addressing employer attitudes and bias toward international skills. Practically, this provides a collective approach to reduce the cost and simplify the processes for requalification and qualification, with clearly communicated pathways. We need to support employers to be more confident about overseas-trained staff through incentives and programs to address discrimination. This includes our looking at our recruitment practices and critically assessing whether they are a barrier to accessing migrant talent. We need to support migrants and refugees with job readiness training initiatives, such as the Skilled Professional Migrant Program delivered by my organisation, AMES Australia. Recently, we commissioned an economist to run the numbers on the effect of a national rollout of the program, a scheme that has a proven record of supporting migrants and refugees into jobs commensurate with their skills and qualifications. The paper, produced by Dr Ian Pringle, found utilising the skills and experience migrants and refugees bring with them could benefit Australia's economy by as much as $10 billion over five years. It found that supporting new arrivals to re-establish their professional careers in Australia could generate more than $2.5 billion in extra tax receipts as well as an extra $8 billion in earnings circulating in the economy over five years. What's more is that the extra access to skills could also produce a 10 per cent spike in productivity. The skills gap is an issue that has evolved again and again over time. Historically, Australia's response has been a siloed approach when what we have is an economic problem that needs a systemic all-of-the-economy response. It's a problem that we have identified but failed to properly pin down and solve over decades. That's the reason why Australia needs a national and integrated initiative to harness the skills of migrants and refugees, while reaping the economic and social benefits that it would bring before that chameleon changes its colour and disappears into the crowd again. In Australia today, like the proverbial chameleon in the crowd, there is an issue and its solution hiding in plain sight. Migrants and refugees are struggling to get jobs that befit their skills and experience. At the same time, we have a critical skills shortage. Migrants and refugees face barriers, including a lack of local experience and networks, English language proficiency or pronunciation and a lack of familiarity with Australian workplace culture and the job market. There are also difficulties and barriers, including exorbitant costs, in getting overseas qualifications recognised in Australia. These structural barriers inhibit positive migrant and refugee career outcomes. Also, employers can be reticent or unsure about hiring migrants and refugees, and mainstream employment services often are either not accessible or unsuited to migrants and refugees. Easily available statistics and research paint a picture of the effect of this situation. Migrants from non-English-speaking countries suffer persistent wage gaps, and overseas-educated migrants earn less than similarly qualified Australians, particularly those from culturally diverse backgrounds. Poor English can affect employment, with 44 per cent of migrants and refugees working below their skill level, even though 57 per cent of them hold university qualifications. And strong accents or a lack of knowledge of local industry jargon exacerbates the problem. At the same time, we know there are critical workforce shortages across a plethora of sectors. The current shortfall of GPs in Australia will rise to 3900 in 2028 and to more than 8900 in 2028; and the undersupply of nurses will rise to almost 80,000 by 2035. Engineers Australia has reported that the nation's engineering skills and labour shortage are at their highest level in a decade. And Master Builders Australia says 130,000 extra tradies will be needed by 2029 to meet the growing demand for new housing. The Commonwealth government's Jobs and Skills Australia agency has estimated that 67 occupations covered by the Technicians and Trades Workers category are in chronic and long-term shortage, representing about one-third of all skills shortages across the country. These shortages are pushing up construction costs and are worse in rural and regional areas, many of which are vulnerable to natural disasters. The boom in renewable energy, data centres to support AI and major infrastructure projects as well as our aging populations and increased demand in care sectors mean these shortages are neither short term nor geographically limited. Making matters worse is global competition for skilled migrants, competition between states within Australia for workers with critical skills and the leakage of skilled workers from regional areas to the cities. But this situation is also an economic opportunity for Australia. Better harnessing the skills and experience of migrants would deliver economic dividends through addressing professional workforce shortages, boosting productivity and reducing the overall cost of creating the professional workforce we need. This is evidenced in some simple numbers. It costs Australia anywhere from $180,000 to $500,000 - including Commonwealth Place Supported funding - to produce a registered doctor. For overseas trained medicos, that figure is around $28,500 - and it could be lower with more streamlined qualifications recognition. Better utilising migrant and refugee skills would also deliver a social dividend through the better integration of newcomers into the community, thus bolstering social cohesion and further supporting disadvantaged cohorts of migrants and refugees. To do this, we need to address the three pillars of the problem: providing access to gap training and qualification recognition; preparing people for Australia's workplace culture and environment; and addressing employer attitudes and bias toward international skills. Practically, this provides a collective approach to reduce the cost and simplify the processes for requalification and qualification, with clearly communicated pathways. We need to support employers to be more confident about overseas-trained staff through incentives and programs to address discrimination. This includes our looking at our recruitment practices and critically assessing whether they are a barrier to accessing migrant talent. We need to support migrants and refugees with job readiness training initiatives, such as the Skilled Professional Migrant Program delivered by my organisation, AMES Australia. Recently, we commissioned an economist to run the numbers on the effect of a national rollout of the program, a scheme that has a proven record of supporting migrants and refugees into jobs commensurate with their skills and qualifications. The paper, produced by Dr Ian Pringle, found utilising the skills and experience migrants and refugees bring with them could benefit Australia's economy by as much as $10 billion over five years. It found that supporting new arrivals to re-establish their professional careers in Australia could generate more than $2.5 billion in extra tax receipts as well as an extra $8 billion in earnings circulating in the economy over five years. What's more is that the extra access to skills could also produce a 10 per cent spike in productivity. The skills gap is an issue that has evolved again and again over time. Historically, Australia's response has been a siloed approach when what we have is an economic problem that needs a systemic all-of-the-economy response. It's a problem that we have identified but failed to properly pin down and solve over decades. That's the reason why Australia needs a national and integrated initiative to harness the skills of migrants and refugees, while reaping the economic and social benefits that it would bring before that chameleon changes its colour and disappears into the crowd again.
AU Financial Review
2 hours ago
- AU Financial Review
Trump accuses JPMorgan, Bank of America of discrimination
Washington | US President Donald Trump accused JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America of discriminating against him and his supporters ahead of a possible crackdown on banks refusing some customers on political grounds. Trump, in an interview on CNBC on Tuesday (Wednesday AEST), said the country's largest bank, JPMorgan, refused to accept more than $US1 billion ($1.5 billion) in deposits from his family business after his first term.
Mercury
2 hours ago
- Mercury
Aus banks slash interest rates early as RBA showdown looms - realestate.com.au
Aussie homeowners are set for repayment relief with a third 2025 rate cut almost a certainty. Seven Aussie banks have slashed interest rates early in a race to beat rivals ahead of next week's Reserve Bank decision, as a drop in inflation fuels a rate-cutting competition. Canstar's database found seven lenders have moved on rates since last Monday, three of whom did so just days after shock CPI figures revealed trimmed mean inflation fell again for the second quarter in a row to well within the RBA's target band (2.7 per cent) – a level considered a key trigger for cheaper lending. MORE: Aus landlord's epic council battle ends in demolition Explosive reform of negative gearing, capital gains perks Current big four bank cash rate forecasts. Source: Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall said that all but confirmed Australia's third official 2025 cash rate cut would happen on August 12. All four big banks – CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ – have predicted that RBA's next move will be August 12 by 0.25 percentage points, but in the days since inflation figures were released a week ago, three lenders have already jumped the gun. A Canstar spokesperson said between July 30 (when inflation data was released) and yesterday two lenders cut at least one variable home loan rate – Auswide Bank and Up – while 'one lender cut its lowest fixed rate – Bank of China'. Among the lowest variable rates brought in just before the inflation data was that of Police Credit Union dropping to 4.99pc for owner-occupiers – a shock figure that heralded the start of the lowest variable rate in two years across the country. All up since last Monday seven lenders have moved rates lower – Auswide Bank and Up for variables, while for fixed it was G & C Mutual Bank, Macquarie Bank, The Mutual Bank, Unity Bank, and Bank of China. RELATED: Shock as lenders slash rates to lowest level in 2 years Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall believes inflation figures 'all but confirmed' an August 12 rate cut. Picture: Tim Hunter. 'There were a few other lenders that moved fixed rates in the days prior to CPI figures, including Macquarie Bank and The Mutual Bank, which has the equal-lowest fixed rate at 4.94 per cent for two and three years.' A 0.25pp drop in interest rates by either their lender or RBA would see a $90 fall in minimum monthly repayments for an owner-occupier with a $600,000 debt and 25 years remaining on their loan (to $3,703/mth). Someone with a $750,000 loan and 25 years left would drop $113 to $4,628, while a $1m home loan minimum repayment would go to $6,171 off a fall of $150. The figures assume the borrower is an average variable owner-occupier paying principal and interest. ABS Quarterly CPI – annual movement – is the final piece in the August puzzle for RBA. Source: Canstar. 'While an RBA cut looks to be a near-certainty, if you've got a mortgage, don't bank on any extra cash until it lands in your bank account,' Ms Tindall said. 'The RBA has shown it doesn't dance to the beat of market expectations — it's the one steering the ship.' 'Banks are also at the helm of your mortgage and while we expect the big banks to step up to the plate and pass the next cut on in full, there's no guarantee every lender will do this.' MORE REAL ESTATE NEWS Homeowners are set to see both strong capital gains and mortgage relief this year.
