logo
Pembrokeshire ranked eighth-worst in UK for dog mess complaints

Pembrokeshire ranked eighth-worst in UK for dog mess complaints

By-election wins, surging polls and a reshaped Senedd system fuel Reform's rapid rise
REFORM UK is no longer a fringe force in Welsh politics. With polling surges, a local by-election victory, and a favourable new voting system set to reshape the Senedd in 2026, the party is rapidly gaining traction—and some believe traditional parties are failing to grasp the scale of its momentum.
On the rise: Reform in Wales
A May 2025 YouGov/ITV Wales poll placed Reform UK second in Wales with 25% of the projected vote—just behind Plaid Cymru on 30%, and well ahead of Labour on 18%. That number is a stark decline: Labour won a 36% regional vote in 2021, making its current standing half of its previous share.
Disillusionment among Labour voters is evident. Only 40% of those who backed Labour in the 2024 UK general election currently intend to do so for the next Senedd election, with substantial numbers shifting to Plaid Cymru (24%), Liberal Democrats (8%), Reform UK (5%), and Greens (4%).
Local Shifts and Breakthroughs
Michelle Beer has been elected as Carmarthenshire's first Reform councillor (Image: Reform)
On May 29, Reform achieved a breakthrough when Michelle Beer won the Lliedi ward by-election in Llanelli—becoming the party's first elected councillor in Carmarthenshire. In a ward long seen as Labour territory, the win signalled a dramatic shift.
Reform volunteers preparing election materials in Carmarthenshire (Image: Facebook)
That momentum continued days earlier in Pembrokeshire, when Scott Thorley, a former Reform candidate, was co-opted onto Haverfordwest Town Council. His appointment ignited local opposition from campaigners concerned about Reform's stance on the Anti-racist Wales Action Plan (AWAP).
The AWAP Dispute and Political Fallout
Scott Thorley's co-option onto Haverfordwest Town Council has sparked a petition (Image: Supplied)
Reform UK has openly opposed the AWAP, criticising its focus on identity-based policies, such as increased grants for ethnic minority student teachers and cultural accommodation in public spaces. Critics say these measures undermine meritocracy and divide communities.
After Thorley's co-option, political graffiti at Withybush Retail Park—featuring slogans like 'VOTE REFORM' and 'GOD SAVE US'—only intensified debate. Thorley swiftly condemned the graffiti, calling it 'vandalism, plain and simple,' and defended the party's intentions.
'As I have been invited to help on the anti‑racist action plan … I'm really confused by their comments. … Politics is about talking and helping people. … stop acting like stroppy teenagers.'
— Scott Thorley, Town Councillor, speaking to The Pembrokeshire Herald
Leadership turbulence and image strategy
Reform has also faced internal turbulence. Chairman Zia Yusuf, a practising Muslim, resigned on June 5, citing exhaustion and policy disagreements—particularly over a proposed burka ban—but reversed that decision just two days later. He returned to lead a new strategy unit focused on governance, fundraising, and outreach. His continued presence is seen as key to diversifying Reform's image and countering claims of intolerance.
Farage, culture wars, and language policy
Nigel Farage: Wants to scrap Welsh Language targets and identity-based policymaking
At the helm, Nigel Farage has declared Wales a top priority, urging voters to back 'real change'. He promised to scrap policies such as the 20mph default speed limit, the 'Nation of Sanctuary' scheme, and the Welsh Government's goal of one million Welsh speakers by 2050—labelled by Reform as cultural overreach.
While Farage offered limited detail on his opposition to the Welsh-language target, his position aligns with a broader opposition to identity-based policymaking.
Even Plaid warns: 'Reform could win'
The growing momentum behind Reform UK has not gone unnoticed by its political opponents. Speaking at the party's Spring conference in Llandudno, Plaid Cymru's Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts warned party members that Reform could become the largest party in the Senedd if they are not taken seriously.
'If we—Plaid Cymru—do not provide solutions to Labour's failings, there is something worse waiting in the wings to take their place,' she said.
'If we do not take this threat seriously, they could become the biggest party in the Senedd—our national parliament. If that happens, it would be a disaster for Wales. This must galvanise us.'
Saville Roberts accused Reform of thriving on division and warned that the party would seek to privatise the NHS, strip away workers' rights, and undermine Welsh identity and the language.
Pushback from Welsh leaders
Welsh Labour's First Minister Mark Drakeford condemned the proposal to remove the language goal, asserting that the Welsh language 'belongs to us all' and should be defended from external political interference. Plaid Cymru MS Llŷr Gruffydd dismissed Farage's claims as 'empty soundbites' and accused him of 'railing against Welsh culture and identity' to advance his own agenda.
Labour's collapse in its historical heartlands is resonating at the grassroots. The Barn Cymru poll confirms their support is now the lowest since devolution began, under 20%. Meanwhile, local expressions of discontent are growing, with public services—especially in rural and post-industrial areas—seen as deteriorating, boosting calls for change.
A once-unshakeable Labour dominance is cracking. With Plaid Cymru and Reform UK capitalising on voter fatigue, policy stumbles, and identity politics backlash, Wales is entering a new era of volatility. As the Senedd moves to proportional representation, the question isn't whether Reform will take seats, but whether Labour has already ceded too much ground.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Mental health crisis is overblown, say public
Mental health crisis is overblown, say public

Telegraph

time2 hours ago

  • Telegraph

Mental health crisis is overblown, say public

The mental health crisis is overblown and people often exaggerate their problems, according to a poll of public beliefs. More than half (56 per cent) of the public believe mental health conditions are exaggerated, while three quarters (76 per cent) think some people mistake life's normal ups and downs for mental illness, according to the survey of more than 2,000 adults by Electoral Calculus. With the Government facing a backbench rebellion over its efforts to restrict welfare benefits, the survey also suggests that ministers – rather than their backbenchers – may have better judged the pulse of the nation. The poll showed more than half of voters (52 per cent) believed that it was too easy for people to claim benefits for mental health illnesses, against 35 per cent who thought it was too hard and 13 per cent who believed it was about right. Last month, Sir Keir Starmer was forced to back down on controversial plans to slash disability and sickness benefits after more than 120 of his MPs threatened to vote against the proposals. Although the public believe benefits are too readily available, they are evenly divided on whether it is too easy or too hard to prove a mental illness in the UK. Some 44 per cent said it was too easy, while 43 per cent said it was too hard. However, Tory and Reform supporters were more likely to believe it was too easy to be diagnosed as suffering from a mental health condition, with 74 per cent of Conservative voters and 55 per cent from Nigel Farage's party saying it was the case. It comes as the head of the Government's workplace review said that employees who have 'I hate my boss syndrome' should not be signed off sick with a mental health condition. Sir Charlie Mayfield said he was concerned some problems are being 'over-medicalised' when they could be solved in the office. The former John Lewis chairman has been appointed by Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, to come up with plans to stop workers leaving their jobs because of poor health. His report is due this autumn. One in five people of working age have a health condition that affects their job and there are 2.8 million people inactive due to ill health – up from 2.1 million since before the Covid pandemic, although the numbers had been rising for several years. Sir Charlie told The Sunday Times: 'The last thing I wish to do is trivialise [mental health conditions] but I agree that things do get over-medicalised.' Half of those polled (49 per cent) agreed that society spends too much time talking about minor mental illnesses. This rose to 77 per cent of Conservatives and 62 per cent of Reform supporters compared with just 35 per cent of Labour voters. Three quarters (74 per cent) said that social media often led to people thinking they had a mental illness when they did not. However, despite the scepticism about 'over medicalisation' of mental ill health, the public believe by five to one majority (68 per cent to 14 per cent) that there were not enough services available to meet the needs of people suffering from mental health problems. Eight in 10 people believed that mental illness had been stigmatised for too long and that it was healthy for people to talk about it more. Seven in 10 also felt that people with serious mental illness are losing out because of the attention given to the growing numbers of people saying they have less serious mental illness. Martin Baxter, the chief executive of Electoral Calculus, said: 'The public shows strong support for tackling stigma and being open about mental health, yet many worry that everyday challenges are being labelled as mental illness, risking the needs of those with serious conditions being overlooked. 'Mental health policy looks set to become a key political battleground, and these findings suggest that politicians will need to tread carefully as they respond to growing public scepticism and a system that most feel isn't working.'

Labour's cruelty towards grieving parents is totally unforgivable
Labour's cruelty towards grieving parents is totally unforgivable

Telegraph

time2 hours ago

  • Telegraph

Labour's cruelty towards grieving parents is totally unforgivable

How can the British state be so generous towards foreigners but so mean towards its own citizens? The cost of housing migrants has tripled to £4m a day as Channel crossings continue to soar. On top of this, we are giving asylum-seekers taxpayer-funded payment cards for buying essentials such as food – which this week we learnt some were using for gambling. A Freedom of Information request found that more than 6,500 payments in gambling settings were attempted by those with Aspen cards, given by the Home Office to those awaiting an asylum decision to allow them to buy basic items, with small weekly top-ups. So we've got migrants attempting to squander our hard-earned cash – and then when British taxpayers need help from the state, they're abandoned. This week, Labour lords blocked a move to give parents of critically ill children workplace rights and financial support. Currently, only parents of newborn babies who become unwell within the first 28 days of life are entitled to paid leave and job protection to be by their child's bedside. But if their child is diagnosed with cancer at 29 days old, the parents get no help beyond unpaid Carer's Leave, capped at a week a year. On Sunday, I spoke to Ceri Menai-Davis on my GB News show. He and his wife, Frances, lost their six-year-old son to cancer in 2021 and are campaigning through their charity, It's Never You, for Hugh's Law, which would give parents 12 weeks statutory paid leave if their child is diagnosed with a critical or terminal illness, up to the age of 16. But Labour peers blocked it, despite it costing a minimal amount due to the mercifully small number of parents affected (around 4,000 a year). Surely this is a no-brainer? Your child is dying, you have to be at their bedside, you need help to pay the bills. If this isn't what the welfare state was built for then what is? It certainly wasn't designed for illegal migrants to try to place state-subsidised bets.

Monday briefing: How ​automatic ​voter ​registration ​could ​redraw Britain's ​political ​map
Monday briefing: How ​automatic ​voter ​registration ​could ​redraw Britain's ​political ​map

The Guardian

time2 hours ago

  • The Guardian

Monday briefing: How ​automatic ​voter ​registration ​could ​redraw Britain's ​political ​map

Good morning. A 12-year-old today will be able to vote in the next general election, unless it's called early. When I first heard that, I laughed. No wonder there's so much focus on Labour's plan to lower the voting age to 16. But it's another reform that could have a far greater impact on who votes – and who wins. The government has announced plans to introduce automatic voter registration, or AVR, where people are added to the electoral roll using existing government data, such as tax or passport records. Right now, voters in the UK have to register themselves. It's a clunky and outdated system. One study recently the most difficult registration processes in any liberal democracy. The result is that millions of people fall through the cracks. In 2023, about 8 million UK adults weren't correctly registered to vote, according to the Electoral Commission. So what could AVR mean politically? How does it shift power in a significant way, for parties both on the right and the left? I spoke to Luke Tryl, director of the nonprofit organisation More in Common, to find out. Euro 2025 | In a stunning comeback, England won the Euros on penalties, beating Spain 3-1 in extra time. They were scored by Chloe Kelly, Niamh Charles and Alex Greenwood. Trade | Donald Trump and Ursula von der Leyen announced a US/EU trade deal after a meeting on Trump's golf course in Scotland. The deal involves a 15% baseline tariff for most EU exports to the US. Gaza | Keir Starmer will recall his cabinet for an emergency meeting on the Gaza crisis, as cross-party MPs warned his talks with Donald Trump provided a critical juncture in helping to resolve the conflict. Thailand and Cambodia | The leaders of Thailand and Cambodia will meet in Malaysia today for talks to end a border conflict that has led to deadly military clashes and the displacement of 150,000 people. Health | Demand for weight loss drugs is becoming so 'unsustainable' that demand may soon outstrip supply, pharmacists have said, warning supply problems could encourage people to turn to unregulated online sources, despite the risks. The core case for automatic voter registration, beyond party politics, is simple: it expands the franchise. It ensures that as many eligible people as possible are actually able to vote. Tryl pointed out that certain groups are much less likely to be registered, which in turn deepens existing inequalities. Those most likely to be missing are younger people, renters, lower-income families, settled migrants, students and people from minority ethnic backgrounds. The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) recently found a stark 19 percentage-point turnout gap between homeowners and renters. 'Those groups end up having a disproportionately lower electoral voice because they're not registered, and that has a real impact on policy,' he said. It's not just about democratic engagement. Who is in the voter pool clearly influences what decisions get made and who is ultimately elected, Tryl explained. He added that people in poorer communities often face a range of barriers, from time poverty and low awareness to disconnection from the political system and a lack of stable housing. Students, he said, may struggle with dual registration, while some migrants may not realise they're eligible to vote, or may not feel entitled to take part. How will it shift power? One of the biggest potential political impacts is on boundary changes. Registration rates vary between seats, Tryl said, so some MPs, especially in under-registered urban areas, are effectively representing far more people than others. And that's because constituency boundaries are based on the number of registered voters, not the number of eligible people. 'The difference in some seats can be tens of thousands of people,' he said. So where does this under-registration happen? 'It's mostly cities; places like Liverpool, Leeds, Bristol, London. MPs in these inner-city areas are representing larger populations, but that's not reflected in boundary calculations. If legislation goes through and we assume more eligible voters are registered, those people will finally be counted,' he added. Simply put, Tryl explained, this would mean more representation, and more parliamentary seats in urban and student-heavy areas. But with the total number of seats in parliament fixed at 650, that shift would inevitably come at the expense of rural, more affluent constituencies. 'It's hard to argue against the principle of automatic registration, but the boundary changes could make rural constituencies, some of which are already geographically large, even bigger,' Tryl said. Who is set to benefit? The most obvious party set to benefit is Labour, which tends to perform better in urban and student-heavy areas. But Tryl tells me that others are also likely to gain from this change. 'The Greens tend to perform better in inner cities and student areas. Some of the inner-city areas that we're talking about are where the independents have done very well, in parts of Birmingham and potentially in parts of London,' Tryl said. 'The big losers are likely to be the Conservatives, who tend to represent more affluent, high-registration areas, and the Liberal Democrats, who've made gains in the so-called Blue walls – former Tory, leafy, affluent strongholds.' Last week, Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana formally launched a new political party, targeting the very inner-city seats likely to gain from automatic voter registration. Polling suggests the party could capture about 10% of the vote, potentially eating into Labour and Green support. Zack Polanski, who is running to be the next Green party leader, has already said he is open to working with any party willing to challenge Reform. This emerging 'Green-left' alliance could be pivotal in shaping the electoral map. On Friday, the group We Deserve Better, backed by the Guardian columnist Owen Jones, launched a campaign calling for a formal electoral pact between Corbyn and Sultana's party and the Greens. As for Reform UK, it's difficult to draw firm conclusions for now, Tryl said. But previous research (pdf) suggests the party's base is made up largely of older, non‑graduate, culturally conservative voters, many disillusioned with the Conservatives or drawn from the Brexit camp. Will this increase voter turnout? While this reform could have a far bigger effect on the electorate than extending the vote to 16- and 17-year-olds – there are about 1.5 million of them in the UK compared with an estimated eight million eligible voters who aren't registered – it is unlikely to lead to a dramatic surge in turnout, Tryl said. Voter turnout in UK general elections used to be consistently high, staying above 70% from 1945 right up until 1997, and even topping 80% in 1950 and 1951. But it had plunged to just 59.4% by the time Tony Blair secured his second term in 2001. Turnout did climb again between 2010 and 2019, yet it has never returned to 70%. In the most recent election in 2024, it slipped again, landing at 59.7%. 'I think that represents a wider democratic disillusionment and disengagement,' Tryl said, but added that there was public support for AVR. 'Forty-five per cent said they supported it, just 21% opposed. So it is more popular than allowing 16- and 17-year-olds to vote. But clearly that needs to go and sit alongside wider democratic engagement in a nonpartisan way.' People need to feel that voting matters. And, Tryl added: 'The fundamental challenge is too many people do not think that government is either willing, because they think politicians are only in it for themselves, and the system is rigged, or capable … to take on Britain's big challenges to bring about the change the country needs. When seven in 10 people say the country is getting worse, and the top word used to describe Britain is 'broken,' you've got overlapping crises: of trust, of exhaustion, of people feeling like they've lost control and agency. That is driving disengagement far more than the specifics of the democratic system.' The task for every party across the political spectrum in the coming years, Tryl said, is to prove that 'government can work and that it can be a force for good'. Sign up to First Edition Our morning email breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what's happening and why it matters after newsletter promotion Four years ago, the Conservative MP David Amess was stabbed to death in his surgery by an Islamic State sympathiser. In a searing interview by Anna Moore, his daughter Katie (pictured above) expresses her pain at his violent death, and the government's refusal to hold an inquiry. Alex Needham, acting head of newsletters The University of Edinburgh played an 'outsized' role in the creation of racist scientific theories and greatly profited from transatlantic slavery. Brilliant reporting by my colleagues of a landmark inquiry into the university's history. Aamna Films and TV shows might be eschewing sex scenes, but literary fiction is going in the other direction, with Sally Rooney, Miranda July, Yael van der Wouden and others all writing recent novels that explicitly explore the sex lives of their protagonists. Why? Because sex, writes Lara Feigel, opens 'selfhood to otherness with extravagant force'. Alex Labour MP Chris Hinchliff was suspended for what No 10 called 'persistent knobheadery'. His crime? Pushing stronger environmental protections. He told the Guardian this language reflects 'a certain set of people … for whom it's all a personality thing, it's all a game'. Aamna In a piece of great tenderness and beauty, Poppy Noor writes about her son Mo Ibrahim Lingwood-Noor, who died in childbirth, and how she moved through the aftermath of this devastating event. Alex Cricket | India drew in the fourth test against England after Ravindra Jadeja (pictured above) and Washington Sundar both completed centuries. England lead the series 2-1. Cycling | Tadej Pogacar has sealed his fourth Tour de France victory in Paris after the final stage from Mantes-la-Ville to the Champs Élysées. The 26-year-old beat his closest rival, Jonas Vingegaard, by almost four and half minute Formula One | Oscar Piastri comfortably won the Belgium Grand Prix as rain lashed down on to the track. The 24-year-old Australian saw off his McLaren teammate Lando Norris. England's Euro victory dominates the front pages – with the Guardian labelling them 'Queens of Europe'. The Mirror has 'LionYESses', while the i also goes with 'Queens of Europe!' The Sun focuses on goalie Hannah Hampton with 'The Hann of God'. Elsewhere, the Times has 'Starmer to press Trump on Gaza'. The Financial Times reports 'Brussels accepts 15% US tariffs to fix 'unfair' trade relations, says Trump', and the Telegraph says 'Trump: Wind power is a 'con-job''. Finally, the Mail focuses on protests in Epping, with 'Now shut migrant protest hotel'. The hunt for the next Dalai Lama The Guardian's south Asia correspondent, Hannah Ellis-Petersen, and the Tibet activist Lhadon Tethong discuss the battle between Buddhist monks and the Chinese state over the successor to the Dalai Lama (pictured above). A bit of good news to remind you that the world's not all bad Despite not making the Belgium squad, footballer Yana Daniëls (pictured above) is making her own contribution to Euro 2025, handcrafting boxes for every player-of-the-match trophy in a converted Wirral garage, using locally sourced wood from Arrowe Park. After suffering from a career-threatening injury a decade ago, Daniëls was forced to plan ahead. She said, 'When you get older you start to realise: 'How long will I play on for? Will I need to find a normal job?' Daniëls' interest in carpentry developed through DIY requests from fellow teammates for the Liverpool changing rooms, including a table and a personalised shoe rack. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday And finally, the Guardian's puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store