Trump is now more responsible for the economy than Biden, voters say

Mint

17 hours ago

Voters now agree: It's President Trump's economy.
Trump voters are now likelier to say that he is more responsible for the current state of the economy than to say that former President Joe Biden is, by a margin of 46% to 34%, according to YouGov survey data gathered for The Wall Street Journal between June 17 and 20. Trump voters had been likelier to pick Biden before last month.
People who voted for Kamala Harris have overwhelmingly said Trump was more responsible for the economy since YouGov put the question to Americans in March.
There's no scientific answer to who owns the economy. But the question serves as a sort of Rorschach test, with voters answering based on a mix of political affiliations, media diets, personal finances and traditional economic indicators.
'I think we're still cleaning up the Biden-Harris mess," said Eladio Cruz, a 39-year-old salesman in Olathe, Kan., who voted for the president last November. 'But are the improvements in the economy that I'm seeing related to Trump? I say yes."
Cruz said he is pleased with the administration's efforts to ramp up oil production and bolster American manufacturing. He remains irked by the level of gasoline prices and interest rates, but doesn't think those are Trump's fault.
More Americans say it is Trump's economy in part simply because of the passage of time. But his raft of new policies, including a slew of tariffs whose magnitude and targets have changed often, have also prompted many voters to assign credit or blame to him.
Some 84% of Trump voters approved of his handling of jobs and the economy, in a YouGov poll from late June. Nearly nine in 10 Harris voters disapproved.
Many Trump voters say the economy is headed in the right direction, but tariffs in particular have weighed on consumers' outlook among both parties. The University of Michigan's consumer-sentiment index had a string of grim readings during the spring, though it rebounded somewhat in June.
The partisan gap in voters' views can diminish when economic indicators are sending a clear and obvious message, such as during a severe downturn, according to John Sides, a political scientist at Vanderbilt University.
Today's economy is more ambiguous. Inflation is down but still above the Fed's target. Tariffs are creating uncertainty for businesses, but stocks have been hitting record highs. Meanwhile, private-sector employment shrunk for the first time in two years, payroll processor ADP said Wednesday.
'In that environment, you can in some sense pick and choose economic indicators which match what your partisanship would tell you," Sides said.
Ruby Becker said she has been happier with prices on diapers, dog food and concert tickets this year, but said that she could be happier still.
The 42-year-old attorney in Mesa, Ariz., voted for Trump and thinks that Biden is still to blame for the prices she sees. She said it is still too early to put them on Trump.
'I'd like to see on January 20th, 2026, how different it is," Becker said.
Democrats have had a sour view of the economy since last year's election, and Harris voters were quicker than Trump voters to say in YouGov surveys that the state of the economy rested more with him.
To Sireeda Miller-Ramos, the economy switched from Biden's to Trump's after the latter's swift changes to trade and immigration policy.
'Around April, I was like, 'This is yours,'" said Miller-Ramos, a 44-year-old finance director in Silver Spring, Md., who voted for Harris.
While presidents certainly have some influence on the economy, researchers say voters often overestimate the extent of it.
'The population has a long history of blaming presidents for things as extreme as gas prices, which are largely set on international markets, where there are very few levers that a president has," said Neale Mahoney, an economist at Stanford University.
Nonetheless, voters tend to credit their preferred leaders with wins and pin losses on opponents.
A few months after Biden took office in 2021, consumer sentiment among Democrats was relatively high, and Biden voters said it was already his economy in a YouGov poll in May of that year.
But as inflation took off and sentiment sank in the ensuing months, those voters started to blame Biden's predecessor instead. Nearly eight months after Trump's first term ended, they were more likely to say that he was responsible for the economy's state than that Biden was.
Today, partisanship shapes voters' expectations about Trump's tariffs.
Some 80% of Democrats said that tariffs would increase inflation, versus 54% of Republicans, in a survey conducted by Harvard University economist Stefanie Stantcheva between mid-April and mid-May.
George Georgountzos voted for Trump last year and is generally pleased with his handling of the economy.
Georgountzos, a 55-year-old lawyer in Stoneham, Mass., said he looks at Trump's tariffs primarily as a ploy to strike favorable trade deals rather than an enduring policy.
'Short-term, they bother me, that the prices are going to go up for stuff," he said. 'Long-term, I think it's going to lead to stability and it's going to be a good thing for the United States."
Write to Joe Pinsker at [e-mail]