Nvidia stock drops ahead of earnings as investors weigh potential Trump export rules, Blackwell delays
The stock dropped over 2% early Tuesday after Bloomberg News reported late Monday night that the Trump administration is looking to further tighten US export rules on the chip sector in an effort to restrict China's advancement in the AI space.
Trump is looking to sanction specific Chinese companies and further restrict international companies from maintaining semiconductor gear in the country, Bloomberg reported.
The news comes more than a month after Chinese firm DeepSeek introduced new, cost-efficient AI models that rocked US markets.
Over the last five trading days, Nvidia stock has lost over 9%, a decline that comes ahead of the chipmaker's fourth quarter earnings report scheduled for Wednesday after the bell.
Nvidia stock dropped 4% Friday and an additional 3% Monday as macroeconomic uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policies stoked fears of inflation and drove down major stock indexes.
Another challenge for Nvidia investors ahead of the report came in a note to investors on Monday from Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis, who suggested Nvidia's ramp-up of its latest Blackwell AI chips could be delayed.
'Our checks suggested Blackwell ramp [was] pushed to mid 2025 from 1H25 [the first half of 2025]," he wrote.
Lipacis added, 'We believe some hyperscalers will likely push some purchases from NVDA, however many noted demand for NVDA GPUs [graphics processing units, or AI chips] still outstrips supply, and absent B100 [Blackwell] availability, NVDA's current solution, H100 would be purchased instead.'
Lipacis maintained his Buy rating on the stock.
Nvidia did not immediately respond to Yahoo Finance's request for comment.
Nvidia's Blackwell chips have faced overheating issues and glitches.
The Information reported in December that some of Nvidia's top customers — Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG), and Meta (META) — had cut orders of its Blackwell products due to those issues. Those four customers alone purchased an estimated $44 billion worth of Nvidia GPUs in the 2024 calendar year, according to a DA Davidson analysis.
Still, Wall Street analysts maintained their bullish outlooks on the stock ahead of its fourth quarter earnings call Wednesday, despite concerns related to export controls, DeepSeek, and delays of its Blackwell chips.
DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria said commentary on Blackwell delays should be taken 'with a grain of salt.'
'Since there is so much excess demand for Blackwell, NVIDIA is rationing orders which may seem like a delay in production even if it is not,' he told Yahoo Finance in an email. Luria holds a Neutral rating and $135 price target on Nvidia stock.
Truist Securities' William Stein also addressed the Blackwell concerns in a note to investors late Monday: 'Since NVDA announced Blackwell at its 2024 GTC event, our contacts have been talking about volume shipments as if they were always right around the corner, waiting for a yield improvement or a design challenge to be addressed.'
Stein added: 'NVDA is still the AI leader and the one to own.'
For Nvidia's fourth quarter, analysts expect the chipmaker to report adjusted earnings per share rising roughly 64% from the prior year to $0.84 and revenue jumping 73% to $38.2 billion.
Laura Bratton is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Bluesky @laurabratton.bsky.social. Email her at laura.bratton@yahooinc.com.
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