Thailand Central Bank Vows to Step In If Baht Moves Are Unhinged
Thailand's central bank is ready to tackle excessive baht volatility by managing any moves 'unhinged' from its fundamentals, a deputy governor said, amid calls from local businesses to temper the currency's rally to help exports and tourism.
'We do look at the baht closely and try not to let it be too volatile,' Piti Disyatat said in an interview late on Thursday. 'If it's driven by non-fundamental reasons, portfolio perceptions, sentiment that's unhinged with macro fundamentals then we will reduce the volatility.'
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Forbes
32 minutes ago
- Forbes
47 Should Be Worried About 37: Trump Tariffs Hitting A Key Metric Hard
For many years, the U.S. trade deficit increased — but the percentage of U.S. trade that was an ... More export did also. What that meant: Relatively speaking, the United States was exporting more, as a percentage, of total trade. That has changed this year. (From 2003 to 2024, the percentage is based on annual totals. The 2025 figure is based on the first four months of 2025.) Yes, U.S. trade is running at a record pace this year. Yes, that includes record exports. Yes, that includes record imports. Soon enough, we will see how much of that was stockpiling ahead of threatened tariffs from President Trump, in the 47th terms of a U.S. president. But there's one number going in the wrong direction, and I am not talking about the trade deficit. That, too, is of course at a record pace as well through April, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau data I analyzed. The number I watch, and watch closely despite its seemingly slight movements, is the ratio between exports and total trade. That number stood at 36.75% through April. If U.S. exports stay at 36.75% of total U.S. trade through 2025, it will be the lowest level since ... More 2006, almost two decades ago. The last time the United States finished a year below that was the four years from 2003 through 2006. Not before, to my knowledge, and not since. Hold on, this one might seem a little wonky but the only real concept at play here is this: The ratio of exports to imports is every bit if not more important than the difference between the two. Onward: What's so special about those four years? That was right after China entered the World Trade Organization and unleased its manufacturing might on the United States and the world. But almost every year after that four-year trough, as the Chinese appetite for U.S. exports increased, that percentage moved toward the historical norm of 39.95%. That might not sound like a big difference 36.75% and 39.95% – but when U.S. annual trade is $5.33 trillion, as it was in 2024, a 1% move is equal to $53.3 billion. A move of 3.2% points – in other words, to the average over the last three decades – is equal to $170.56 billion. I can't imagine there's an exporter in this country who wouldn't want at least a little of that action. What happened in the decade after that four-year trough? U.S. exports to China from 2006 to 2016 were larger than to any other country in the world, except Mexico, which was benefitting from the North America Free Trade Agreement. While not growing as much, exports to China were growing faster than those to Mexico. That's because China was starting from a smaller base. U.S. exports to China increased 83.67% compared to 69.39% for Mexico – even with the more difficult logistics involved. The growth in exports – imports from China were also rising rapidly, as was the U.S. deficit with China – showed up in the U.S. percentage of trade with China that was an export. It increased from a rather paltry 15.72% in 2016 to a slightly less paltry 20.01% in 2016. U.S. exports to China, through April, by percentage. While the increasing trade deficit (exports minus imports) represents the strength of American buying power, the percentage of total trade that is an export (exports divided by total trade) represents billions in additional U.S. exports of soybeans, aircraft, medical devices and more. Since 2016, that export ratio has continued to climb. In the nine full years since, it has topped 20% seven times, falling below for only the first two years of Trump's first term. Thus far in 2025, the percentage is 23.81%. That's still well below the average with the world, of course, at just under 40%. And there's no disputing that the high tariffs that Trump put on U.S. imports from China in his first term, tariffs generally left in place by former President Joe Biden, have had an impact on the trade relationship. I have written about how the U.S. deficit with China, five times greater than any other deficit with the world when Trump entered office the first time, is now only 50% greater than that of Mexico. And yet, the U.S. deficit continues to climb, topping $1 trillion six of the last eight years. I have written that China's percentage of U.S. trade dipped to its lowest level in more than two decades. And yet, U.S. trade continues to climb, as other trade partners, Vietnam among them, have continued to grow rapidly. I have written that China has slipped to rank third among U.S. trade partners, after ranking first, that it also fell behind Mexico as an importer into the United States. Trade with Mexico has been robust – and the U.S. deficit with Mexico has swollen as China's has retracted. I have written that that most symbolic of Chinese imports, the cell phone, and its related parts, dipped to their lowest level in two decades. And cell phone imports have remained robust but shifted to India and Vietnam. I have written about what the Trump administration deemed the 'Dirty 15,' those countries with which the United States has its largest trade deficits. Most are both our largest export markets and our allies. For decades, the United States government, albeit begrudgingly, seemed to believe that a focus on U.S. exports would eventually be better than a narrow focus on the trade deficit. While China lags behind most other top trade partners and top large economies in its percentage of trade that is an export, its progress has been unrivaled. Could China have gotten to 30%? What about 40%? Could it still? What would China look like if its economy was able to buy an additional $800 in exports from the United States? Could the United States produce that much? Could it grow enough soybeans? Could Boeing manufacture enough jets? Could U.S. drug makers increase their output sufficiently? Could U.S. automakers, and even foreign automakers building cars in the United States and employing 'blue-collar' Americans, produce enough cars? It would, of course, extend beyond merchandise trade. American brands would be coveted. It would extend to service trade, to hotel chains, to restaurant chains, to movies, to our universities and to increased tourism in the United States. What a boost to the U.S. economy that would be. That view, that a laser-sharp focus on increasing exports would be better than reducing the deficit, is no longer in vogue. And yet, despite all that, our trade has continued to grow, our imports have continued to grow, our exports have continued to grow, albeit more slowly, our trade deficit has continued to grow – and our percentage of trade that is an export has fallen.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Why USA Rare Earth Stock Fell Today
China and the U.S. have apparently signed a trade deal that will free up rare earth magnet exports from China. USA Rare Earth doesn't yet make magnets, but wants to. For the time being, the company has no revenue and no profit. 10 stocks we like better than Usa Rare Earth › Shares of USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR) stock fell an unlucky 13% through 1:30 p.m. ET Friday. And why? Well, last night President Trump announced the signing of a trade deal with China, and this morning, China's Ministry of Commerce confirmed the news, stating its intention to "approve export applications for items subject to export control rules," as CNBC just reported. China's referring first and foremost to applications for the export of rare earth magnets. And the reason this is bad news for USA Rare Earth is that the company is itself trying to break into the rare earth biz, by mining, processing, and supplying rare earths extracted from a mine in Sierra Blanca, Texas. Any increase in cheap rare earth exports from China could torpedo USA Rare Earth's business model, which is really predicated on China not allowing rare earth exports, such that rare earth sourced from within the U.S. will be the only way U.S. companies can access the products at all. Still, a couple caveats are worth pointing out. First and foremost, USA Rare Earth -- which only formed in 2019 -- doesn't actually mine any rare earths itself... yet. The company has no revenue, operating profit, or free cash flow whatsoever. Its entire $40 million net profit over the past year came from the "gain on fair market value of financial instruments" it holds. As such, it doesn't really matter what China does (or doesn't do) until USA starts producing some rare earths of its own, and proves itself a viable business. Unless and until that happens, I consider the stock entirely speculative -- and probably a sell. Before you buy stock in Usa Rare Earth, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Usa Rare Earth wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $704,676!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $950,198!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,048% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 175% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 23, 2025 Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Why USA Rare Earth Stock Fell Today was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
US reaches deal with China to speed up rare-earth shipments, White House says
The US has reached an agreement with China to speed up rare-earth shipments into America, officials confirmed on Friday. The news sent US stock markets to fresh highs amid news of wider efforts to end the trade wars between the US and the world's biggest economies. Donald Trump said on Thursday that the US had signed a deal with China the previous day, without providing additional details, and that there might be a separate deal coming up that would 'open up' India. But the trade news was complicated on Friday afternoon when Trump announced he had called off talks with Canada over a digital sales tax. The S&P and the Nasdaq turned negative before recovering their losses. China confirmed the details of the deal on Friday, and reiterated that it will continue to approve the export permits of controlled items. The news sent US stock markets to new highs on Friday morning with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record levels. During US-China trade talks in May in Geneva, Beijing committed to removing non-tariff countermeasures imposed against the US since 2 April, although it was unclear how some of those measures would be walked back. Related: The world wants China's rare earth elements – what is life like in the city that produces them? As part of its retaliation against new US tariffs, China suspended exports of a wide range of critical minerals and magnets, upending the supply chains central to automakers, aerospace manufacturers, semiconductor companies and military contractors around the world. 'The administration and China agreed to an additional understanding for a framework to implement the Geneva agreement,' a White House official said on Thursday. The understanding is 'about how we can implement expediting rare-earth shipments to the US again', the official said. A separate administration official said the US-China agreement took place earlier this week. Interactive China has a virtual monopoly on the global supply of rare earths, having grown to dominate production and processing in the 1990s and the 2000s. Some of the rare earths mined in China are used in US military equipment, a vulnerability that has been laid bare in the US-China trade war. The US commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, told Bloomberg: 'They're going to deliver rare earths to us' and once China did that, 'we'll take down our countermeasures'. The treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, said on Friday that he hoped the US could reach trade agreements with more than a dozen nations by September – comments that suggest the White House has all but scrapped the 9 July deadline it had set to conclude negotiations before reimposing its more draconian 'reciprocal tariffs'. 'I think we could have trade wrapped up by Labor Day [1 September],' Bessent said on Fox Business Network. Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, told reporters on Thursday that the 9 July deadline was 'not critical'. While the agreement shows potential progress after months of trade uncertainty and disruption since Trump took office in January, it also underscores the long road ahead to a final, definitive trade deal between the two economic rivals. China has been taking its dual-use restrictions on rare earths 'very seriously' and has been vetting buyers to ensure that materials are not diverted to US military uses, according to an industry source. This has slowed down the licensing process. The Wall Street Journal reported this week that China has told rare-earth companies to provide the government with a list of workers with technical expertise and has asked some to turn in their passports to prevent them from taking unauthorised overseas trips. China wants to ensure that its commercially valuable rare earths knowledge is not shared with foreign adversaries. Car manufacturers have already complained about factories being brought to a near halt because of supply chain shortages of rare earths and the magnets they are used in. A Ford executive said this week that the company was living 'hand to mouth'. The Geneva deal had faltered over China's curbs on critical minerals exports, prompting the Trump administration to respond with export controls of its own, preventing shipments of semiconductor design software, aircraft and other goods to China. In early June, Reuters reported that China had granted temporary export licences to rare-earth suppliers of the top three US automakers as supply chain disruptions began to surface from export curbs on those materials. Later in the month, Trump said there was a deal with China in which Beijing would supply magnets and rare-earth minerals while the US would allow Chinese students to study in its colleges and universities. Reuters contributed reporting Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
