Which candidates might miss out thanks to Tasmania's Hare-Clark vote counting system

Australia Broadcast Center

4 hours ago

The long wait for a final result continues after Tasmania's state election 10 days ago.
We know the Liberals will be the biggest group in the new Tasmanian Parliament, with at least 14 seats out of 35.
Labor has 10 seats and the Greens five, while there are four independents.
With vote counting set to continue using Tasmania's Hare-Clark system, here are some of the big questions that will be answered by the end of the week.
Depending on how the counts go, we may be waiting until Saturday for an answer.
Tasmanian Electoral Commissioner Andrew Hawkey says the distribution of preferences will start on Tuesday afternoon, once the deadline for postal votes has passed and the last batch is received.
Before that, there's some final checking and all the votes from each booth are combined.
They'll also start preparing for the first round of distributions by sorting the second preferences of those candidates who polled more than a quota.
"Where you have something like Mr Rockliff, who has so many first preferences, all his ballot papers are thrown for count two," Mr Hawkey said.
"They will sort of do the movement of those ballot papers, looking at every count two on every one of these ballot papers, and that'll be physically moved on Monday."
For local government elections, the Tasmanian Eelectoral Commission (TEC) uses a data entry system that computerises the distribution of preferences.
It is hoped that system will be in place by the next state election.
"What that will mean is we should be able to get a result pretty much on that Tuesday afternoon," Mr Hawkey said.
With around 50 per cent of the vote, the Liberals are set to end the count with four seats in Braddon, with Jacqui Lambie Network turned independent MP Miriam Beswick, who ran as a Nationals candidate this time around, losing her seat.
Jeremy Rockliff has topped the poll statewide, with two and a half quotas.
That will be enough to carry three of his party mates across the line with him, including former federal Liberal MP Gavin Pearce.
Incumbent MPs Felix Ellis and Roger Jaensch are the two next best placed Liberals.
ABC chief election analyst Casey Briggs said while Mr Rockliff's preferences were expected to flow strongly to the incumbents, Giovanna Simpson wasn't totally out of the count.
"The only reason we have a small amount of caution is because his surplus is so big and because Giovanna Simpson performed quite well on preferences in last year's election," he said.
According to Mr Briggs, the electorate of Bass is "one of the most complicated" in recent memory.
The Liberals will hold their three seats, Labor is set to hold its two, and the Greens one.
"That's six of the seats, but then the surpluses for every other party are sitting somewhere between 0.2 and 0.4 of a quota."
Whichever candidates can accumulate preferences and outlast their competitors will take a Steven Bradbury-esque win.
It means that while Labor pulled only 2.2 quotas — and Jess Greene and Geoff Lyons are still in a contest to become the party's second MP in the electorate — it may still be able to win a third.
Compare that to Franklin, where the Liberals won around 2.7 quotas, but are destined for two seats.
Mr Briggs also said Bridget Archer's strong vote may complicate things for the Liberals.
The former federal MP has more than 1.5 quotas, but due to her high profile there's a chance some of her vote may "leak" to other candidates, rather than stay within the Liberal ticket.
"It's possible there are people in Bass that have voted for Bridget Archer, but not other members of the Liberal Party ticket," Mr Briggs explained.
"That would actually have the effect of bringing down the Liberals vote in that seat, and it could make it harder for them to stay ahead of other candidates," he said.
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (SSF) remains the firm favourite chance of picking up its first ever seat in Lyons, according to Mr Briggs.
But with the party's Carlo di Falco sitting on just over half a quota, Mr Briggs said it was not locked in.
"His primary vote has fallen a little bit, as we expected, as more postal votes have been counted and out of division, pre-polls and other non-election day votes have been counted," he said.
If the SFF fails, the Liberals' Stephanie Cameron may have a chance — she's around 0.2 of a quota behind.
Labor's vote tanked in Franklin, with a near 5 per cent swing against the party and leader Dean Winter failing to secure a quota.
The ABC has called two seats for them though, with first-term MP Meg Brown best placed to secure the second seat.
But she will have to hold off high-profile candidate and Unions Tasmania boss Jess Munday, who she leads by around 1,000 votes.
With the Liberals holding their two Clark seats and Marcus Vermey topping the poll for the party, it means he's set to topple either Madeleine Ogilvie or Simon Behrakis.
At this stage, Mr Behrakis remains ahead of Ms Ogilvie by around 1,000 votes.
"It's not a done deal just yet," Mr Briggs said.
"We will need to see some of those lower-placing Liberal candidates excluded to be sure of that."
This was Marcus Vermey's third campaign in the last 16 months, having unsuccessfully contested last year's state election and May's Legislative Council election — the long runway helping him get over the hump.
Mr Briggs said the Hare-Clark voting system meant incumbents could be vulnerable to a popular outsider, with voters able to avoid certain candidates but still stick with their favoured party.
"The Tasmanian electoral system requires candidates to build their own profiles, have good standing with the electorate, and be out there connecting with voters and actively campaigning," he said.
"You can't coast along on your party's name because that makes you vulnerable to being defeated by a more popular member of your own party."