Can Sungjae Im turn things around? PGA Tour John Deere Classic prop bet picks, predictions

USA Today

6 days ago

The PGA Tour is in Silvis, Ill., this week for the 2025 John Deere Classic. It's once again being hosted by TPC Deere Run, giving players ample birdie opportunities on a very scorable course. The first round begins on Thursday morning. Below, we search for the best value prop bets for the John Deere Classic from BetMGM Sportsbook's odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Davis Thompson is looking to defend his title at TPC Deere Run after winning here last year, and he comes in with the fourth-best odds of anyone at +2800. Ben Griffin (+1400) is the clear favorite atop the board, with Jason Day (+2200) and Denny McCarthy (+2500) among the other contenders in the field.
TPC Deere Run (par 72) will play at 7,289 yards, so it's not a terribly long course. It features tree-lined fairways and greens that are on the larger side, so players should have plenty of birdie chances throughout the week. The winning score has been 18-under or better in every playing of this event since 2010, and Thompson set the scoring record at 28-under par last year – 4 clear of the field.
John Deere Classic – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 11:03 p.m. ET.
Thorbjornsen is trending up at the moment, finishing in the top 5 three times in his last 6 starts. That includes a T-4 at the Rocket Classic last week, where he was just 1 shot shy of a 4-man playoff. He already has a top-5 in this event under his belt, too, coming in second last year.
McCarthy tends to excel on TPC courses and Deere Run is no exception. He's finished sixth or seventh in each of the last 3 years at the John Deere Classic, going on a tear in this event in recent seasons. It helps that he's a great putter, especially with scores expected to be so low once again.
John Deere Classic – Top-10 picks
Smalley has finishes of 16th and second in his last 3 starts at the John Deere Classic, so he has a fairly good track record in Silvis. Prior to missing the cut at the Rocket Classic last week, Smalley tied for 13th at the RBC Canadian Open.
Clanton has endured the typical ups-and-downs of a rookie on the PGA Tour but he has a ton of upside, especially at this course. He made a push last year at the John Deere Classic, finishing T-2 behind Thompson, who ran away from everyone en route to a 4-shot win.
Gotterup finished 23rd at the U.S. Open and 26th at the Rocket Classic last week, showing some good form heading into the John Deere Classic. He's long off the tee and though he can be inaccurate with his driver, that's not as penalizing at an easier course like TPC Deere Run. He finished fourth in his tournament debut in 2022.
John Deere Classic – Top-20 picks
Schenk missed the cut in 2018 and 2024, but in the 3 starts in between that he made here, he finished fourth, fourth and sixth. At such a long price, he's worth betting for a top-20 despite some disappointing showings for most of this season.
Valimaki finished 12th in his first start at the John Deere Classic last year, opening with a 61 on Thursday afternoon. His putting numbers are great this season, ranking eighth in strokes gained, so he just needs to give himself enough birdie looks to make some noise this week.
Im has finished 26th, 47th and 12th in his 3 career starts in this event, so they aren't the best results. However, he tends to have more success when scoring is low, which it will be this week. He could snap out of a little bit of a funk after finishing no better than 57th in his last 3 starts this season.
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John Deere Classic – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Sungjae Im (+100) vs. Kevin Yu (-125)
Yu played well at the RBC Canadian Open and Travelers Championship, which were his last 2 starts. He also finished sixth and 20th in the last 2 years here, but Im is worth taking at plus-money to finish higher on the leaderboard.
Denny McCarthy (-118) vs. Ryan Gerard (-105)
McCarthy's record here is great and he's not an overwhelming favorite against Gerard, which makes him worth playing at -118. He has a legitimate chance to win this week.
John Deere Classic – Top German
Jaeger missed the cut at the Rocket Classic last week but getting him at +100 to be the top German against Thomas Rosemueller (+240) and Jeremy Paul (+250) feels like a good value.
John Deere Classic – Top Asian
Im has the 3rd-best odds to be the top Asian player in this market, behind only Si Woo Kim and Kevin Yu. He's capable of going really low at a course like this.
John Deere Classic – First-round leader
Valimaki is a terrific putter, ranking eighth in strokes gained on the greens this season. If his putter gets hot on Thursday, he could finish the day atop the leaderboard. This season, he ranks 10th in first-round scoring average, as well.
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