Israeli army says it is working to intercept missile launched from Yemen
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Gulf diplomacy with Iran helped limit conflict with Israel, Middle East experts say
LONDON: Improved relations between Arab Gulf countries and Iran helped contain the recent conflict with Israel, Middle East experts said on Wednesday during a discussion about regional developments. Israel attacked Iran on June 13 with airstrikes targeting its nuclear program and military sites. Iran retaliated during the 12-day conflict by launching salvos of missiles toward Israeli cities. Many feared the war might escalate, dragging in other countries in the region, especially after the US joined the airstrikes on June 22 by dropping bombs on key Iranian nuclear sites. While Iran did retaliate against the US by attacking Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar on June 23, President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire two days later, and Iran has refrained from attacking other US targets in the region. When the war started, Gulf countries condemned Israel's attacks on Iran and called for deescalation. There has been a shift in the region in recent years away from an adversarial relationship with Iran to one of more pragmatic relations, cemented by a Chinese-brokered agreement between Riyadh and Tehran in March 2023. 'That reintegration of Iran into the Gulf security complex has played a really prominent role in preventing this from getting out of hand,' Simon Mabon, a professor of international politics and director of the SEPAD peace and conflict research center at Lancaster University, said during a discussion about developments in the Middle East this year. This approach showed Gulf states building a regional security architecture from the inside that is 'inclusive,' he added. It is viewed as a more 'pragmatic and more sustainable way of building a longer-term form of prosperity,' and the approach speaks to Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 reforms program and the economic pragmatism of Gulf states, he added during the online event organized by SEPAD and the Foreign Policy Centre in London. Eyad Alrefai, a lecturer in political science at King Abdulaziz University in Jeddah and a SEPAD fellow, said the efforts to forge new relationships between Gulf countries and Iran meant that the nations had been able to 'manage their differences diplomatically,' and this included economic issues. There had been less Iranian interference in the domestic affairs of GCC countries, and also in the wider Arab region, he added. This included Iran's decision not to get involved in Syria when President Bashar Assad, an Iranian ally, was removed from power by opposition fighters in December last year. The West's position on the Iran-Israel conflict, largely seen to be one of support of Israel, was symptomatic of the fact that those countries continue to adopt a 'tactical' outlook toward the region rather than a strategic one, Alrefai said. He urged those countries to engage with the Middle East as a socioeconomic, sustainable project moving forward. If the truce between Iran and Israel continues to hold, many see the end of the brief war as a potential opportunity for more stability in the region. Lina Khatib, an associate fellow at Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Program, said there was 'a real possibility for an integrated economic and security and political partnership' to emerge. She said a weakened Iran also opens up the chance to restart the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Trump said on Tuesday that Israel had agreed to the terms of a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, where more than 57,000 Palestinians have been killed during a devastating military campaign launched by Israeli authorities in response to the Hamas-led attacks against Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, during which 1,200 people were killed and dozens taken hostage. Khatib said a shift in domestic Israeli politics, with pressure from Trump, could reopen a pathway toward a long-term agreement between Israel and Palestine. This would also lead to further normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries, she added. 'This will in turn encourage the flow of funding to places like Lebanon and Syria for reconstruction, which could only be good news for these countries economically, but also will help with stability,' Khatib said. 'Having a stable region is very much in the interest of countries in the Gulf as well.' Clive Jones, a professor of regional security and director of the Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at Durham University, said Israel had scored a huge win against Iran but ran the risk of failing to convert it into a diplomatic opportunity. 'The challenge for Israel now is how you actually cash in those military gains for diplomatic advantage,' he said. 'I think Israel is actually missing a huge opportunity, for example by not engaging more proactively with the new regime in Syria.' He said Israel's reliance on its military superiority would not be enough to secure long-term security.
