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Dollar poised for weekly loss, hurt by economic weakness and trade limbo

Dollar poised for weekly loss, hurt by economic weakness and trade limbo

CNBC06-06-2025
The dollar was headed for a weekly loss on Friday, undermined by signs of fragility in the U.S. economy and little progress on trade negotiations between Washington and its partners, ahead of a critical jobs report.
The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report expected later on will draw greater scrutiny after a slew of weaker-than-expected economic data this week underscored that President Donald Trump's tariffs were taking a toll on the economy.
Currencies were mostly rangebound in early European hours as traders steered clear of large bets ahead of the data release.
The euro was taking a breather after hitting a 1-1/2-month top on Thursday following hawkish remarks from the European Central Bank. It last bought roughly $1.1422, down just 0.2% on the day.
Traders have pushed back expectations on the timing of the next rate cut, but continue to anticipate a 25 basis point reduction by year-end.
Deutsche Bank's Mark Wall said he still expects 50 basis points worth of ECB rate cuts, adding "it is still too early to judge the impact of trade war, and the path of the trade war is in any case still inherently unpredictable."
Reflecting a struggling economy, data showed that German exports and industrial output fell more than expected in April and data on euro zone retail sales is expected later in the day.
Sterling dipped 0.2% at around $1.3546 having scaled a more than three-year peak in the previous session, and was set to rise about 0.6% for the week.
The yen fell 0.18% to 143.90 per dollar.
Most currencies had surged against the dollar late on Thursday, helped by news that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke on a call for more than an hour, before paring some of their gains.
Against a basket of currencies, the dollar edged up to 98.9, and was headed for a weekly loss of 0.5%.
Analysts said Friday's U.S. jobs data would likely be the next catalyst for currencies.
Economists polled by Reuters forecast the U.S. economy created 130,000 new jobs in May versus 177,000 in April.
Job growth likely slowed considerably in May as businesses struggled with headwinds from tariff uncertainty, but probably not enough for a cautious Federal Reserve to resume cutting interest rates anytime soon, analysts said.
"Within all the noise... the softness that we've seen in the data this week has probably been more responsible for rejuvenating the bearish U.S. dollar narrative than anything else that's gone on," said Ray Attrill, head of FX research at National Australia Bank.
"We've always taken the view that once it becomes clear that the U.S. economy is no longer exceptional, and that the policy actions that we've seen to date, together with the relative tightness of Fed policy, will start to show through particularly in a weakening labor market. Hence the importance of tonight's numbers."
Adding to headwinds for the dollar, investors remain worried about U.S. trade negotiations and the lack of progress in hashing out deals ahead of an early July deadline.
The highly anticipated call between Trump and Xi also provided little clarity and the spotlight on it was quickly stolen by a public fallout between Trump and Elon Musk.
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Trump deal with Europe underlines new standard of (at least) 15% tariffs
Trump deal with Europe underlines new standard of (at least) 15% tariffs

Yahoo

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  • Yahoo

Trump deal with Europe underlines new standard of (at least) 15% tariffs

President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a trade deal Sunday with a range of somewhat vague plans for energy purchases and open markets but one thing crystal clear: a tariff rate of 15% on European goods. It's the latest example of a new tariff floor for Trump that has been backed by other recent deals and letters, including one with Japan this past week that also saw a 15% rate. "We'll have a straight simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%," Trump asserted. Both Trump and von der Leyen highlighted the 15% rate Sunday after their meeting in Scotland. Trump claimed a 'straight-across tariff of 15%' for 'automobiles and everything else,' adding that US exports to Europe would face a 0% rate. Von der Leyen confirmed the 15% tariffs 'across the board and inclusive," adding that it would bring stability and predictability to US-Europe relations. Trump added that the deal includes hundreds of billions of dollars in new EU purchases of U.S. energy as well as military equipment. The 15% rate may get a mixed reaction in Europe after negotiators had previously pushed for free trade (or more recently a 10% rate), but it's a halving from the 30% tariffs Trump promised in a letter earlier this month. Sunday's agreement with the European Union — America's largest trading partner — comes following agreements with Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia with saw tariff rates of between 19% and 20%. Only one negotiation has seen Trump agree to a tariff below 15% — a pact with the UK in May — with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent writing earlier this month, "usually the first person who makes a deal makes the best deal." Some details unclear Trump also said Sunday that many of the remaining countries facing a deadline of August 1 would face a letter dictating rates, saying they would be be 'very universal for most' and that the European deal is 'the big one.' The president said three to four additional countries could be in for deals in the the coming days while most nations would simply get letters. In any case, the 15% baseline is a shift — even from recent weeks. Trump earlier this month said that many countries would see a rate of 'probably 10% or 15%, we haven't decided yet.' Even last Sunday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CBS: "You should assume that the small countries... will have a baseline tariff of 10%." This new standard is also notable fulfillment of an oft-made campaign trail promise that saw the then-candidate pledge to create a "ring around the collar" of the US economy with a blanket rate of between 10% and 20%. Fulfilling that pledge — which was often dismissed as unrealistic at the time — has now become not only accepted but even a plus for markets after six months of Trump's second term have seen threats of higher duties that have reordered world trade actions. The recent announcement of the deal with Japan with a 15% tariff on goods like autos was welcomed by traders and helped fuel rises in US markets as well as the Japanese Nikkei 225, which immediately surged on the news. Japanese automakers in particular saw a jump after that deal as those companies celebrated a lowering of auto tariffs from 25% to 15%. European automakers now find themselves in a similar position. Trump, meanwhile, says he has no plans to amended his other sector specific tariffs as part of the European Union deal — even as Von der Leyen called the 15% tariffs 'inclusive." There are 50% tariffs currently levied on steel and aluminum (with planned duties at the same rate on copper), and Trump said Sunday that those tariffs are a "worldwide thing that stays the way it is." Trump also reiterated his promises of sectoral tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals to be rolled out, which could be much higher than 15% — unless Europe gets a carveout. Also on Sunday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that a new semiconductor tariffs are nearly ready and would be unveiled in about "two weeks time." Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance. Click here for political news related to business and money policies that will shape tomorrow's stock prices Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data

Lutnick says tariffs set in place Aug 1: ‘No extensions. No more grace periods.'
Lutnick says tariffs set in place Aug 1: ‘No extensions. No more grace periods.'

The Hill

time25 minutes ago

  • The Hill

Lutnick says tariffs set in place Aug 1: ‘No extensions. No more grace periods.'

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday that President Trump would not grant any further extensions to countries wishing to negotiate trade deals ahead of the Aug. 1 deadline. 'No extensions, no more grace periods. Aug. 1, the tariffs are set,' Lutnick said in an interview on 'Fox News Sunday.' 'They'll go into place, customs will start collecting the money, and off we go,' Lutnick continued. Lutnick added, however, that the president would be open to continuing to negotiate even once the tariffs are in place. 'Obviously after Aug. 1, people can still talk to President Trump,' Lutnick said. 'I mean, he's always willing to listen.' The president will also continue to talk to other countries before the Aug. 1 deadline, Lutnick added. 'Whether they can make him happy is another question,' Lutnick said. 'But the president's definitely willing to negotiate and talk to the big economies for sure.' The interview came shortly before Trump announced a trade deal with the European Union, setting tariffs at 15 percent for European goods, including automobiles. The EU agreed to purchase $750 billion worth of energy from the U.S. as part of the deal, Trump announced on Sunday, and to invest in the U.S. $600 billion more than the current investments for other goods. The agreement is lower than the 30 percent tariff Trump had threatened to impose on the EU, which was set to take effect on Aug. 1, and avoids a trade war with the U.S.'s largest trading partner. Trump earlier this month posted letters to social media sent to more than a dozen countries vowing to impose steep tariffs on their imports starting Aug. 1. An initial round of tariffs unveiled in April were paused for 90 days to allow time for negotiations, and the president then pushed the deadline for the tariffs to take effect back by another couple weeks — to Aug. 1.

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