We have no idea where this war will go

Observer

22-06-2025

After days of publicly mulling whether to join Israel in its military campaign against Iran, President Trump directed the US military on Saturday to execute a complex attack on three of the nation's nuclear sites with several American warplanes and submarines.
Hours later, Trump declared the mission a 'spectacular military success," saying during a national address from the White House that US forces had 'completely and totally obliterated," Iran's nuclear programme. 'There's no military in the world that could have done what we did tonight, not even close,' he said, standing in front of Vice-President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth.
It may appear like a tactical victory less than four hours after the bombs began to fall, but projecting any sense of finality about this ordeal is wildly premature.
The nuclear sites in Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan may be lying in rubble. But whether Tehran will be unable to rehabilitate its nuclear programme remains an open question. And what will Iran do in return? If the more than 40,000 American troops and personnel in the Middle East are attacked, will the Trump administration try to topple the political establishment in Tehran? Any one of these questions could have complicated answers with disastrous consequences for the US and its allies throughout the Middle East. Trump doesn't see it that way. 'There will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days,' he said, referring to Israeli air strikes. 'Remember, there are many targets left.'
Trump's decision holds the potential to transform not only his presidency but US standing overseas as well. He was elected to the White House on a platform of turning away from foreign conflicts with nebulous goals. A little more than seven months later, he's brought the US military directly into conflict with Iran in an act of war that was meticulously planned and detailed but entirely unauthorised by Congress.
The president chose to launch these attacks against Iran by choice, not necessity. Tulsi Gabbard, Trump's director of national intelligence, testified in March that Iran had a stock of enriched material but had not decided to make a nuclear weapon. (She has since said her comments were taken out of context and estimated Iran was 'weeks to months' away from producing nuclear weapons.) In his speech, delivered after he told Americans via social media that he had entered the war, Trump applauded the bombing operation, which took place using B-2 Stealth bombers along with missiles launched from submarines. 'I want to congratulate the great American patriots who flew those magnificent machines tonight and all of the United States military on an operation the likes of which the world is not seen in many, many decades,' he said.
It's true that the US Air Force had never used Stealth bombers in such a highly orchestrated, overwhelming strike operation. At about $2.1 billion apiece, the B-2 is the world's most expensive aircraft because of its onboard technology. It was engineered to slip behind Soviet air defences and obliterate hardened targets and has seen limited use during the wars in the Middle East.
The world's eyes now shift to the American troops inside Iran's range of fire via missiles, drones or other kind of attack. A response may not come for days. When Trump issued the drone strike in January 2020 that killed Qassim Suleimani, it was five days before Iran launched salvos of missile strikes on US forces stationed at bases in neighbouring Iraq.
Trump said he hopes that 'we will no longer need' the American military's services. This is wishful thinking. It's almost certain we haven't seen the end of US military action in this war. It might very well have just begun. — The New York Times
WJ Hennigan writes about national security issues for Opinion from Washington