PQ and Liberals battle it out in new poll as CAQ droops
QUEBEC — A new public opinion poll suggests Quebecers might be headed back to their old habit of voting along the lines of federalism versus Quebec independence — and that spells trouble for the governing Coalition Avenir Québec, which walks the line between the two.
Setting the stage for a possible two-way race in the 2026 election, a new Léger poll shows the Liberals under new leader Pablo Rodriguez have picked up seven points in one month.
While the PQ continues to lead in voter intentions with 30 per cent and would form a majority government if the election was held today, the Liberals are not far behind with the support of 28 per cent of voters, the poll conducted for the Journal de Montréal reveals.
Trailing in third place is the CAQ, with the support of 17 per cent. The Quebec Conservatives are at 14 per cent and Québec solidaire is at nine per cent.
'We have returned to the classic PQ-Liberal (rivalry), the classic of the last 50 years,' Léger president Jean-Marc Léger told the Journal de Montréal.
He noted it is the lowest CAQ score seen in 11 years.
'The CAQ is becoming a more and more marginal party,' Léger said.
Founded in 2011 by now-premier François Legault, the CAQ offered Quebecers a way out of the eternal federalism versus independence debate by offering a third option: nationalist but within Canada.
The poll thus points to an uncertain future for Legault, who has repeated multiple times he wants to run in the 2026 election to attain a third mandate in office.
In recent years, he has fought speculation the CAQ is in trouble by saying the last thing Quebec needs in the current uncertain economic times is a PQ government and another sovereignty referendum.
Last week, asked about a Pallas Data/L'Actualité-Qc 125 poll also showing support for the CAQ sagging, Legault said such polls energize him and make him want to fight on.
The new Léger polls shows only 28 per cent of Quebecers are satisfied with the CAQ government. And 50 per cent of respondents say Legault should quit now.
What is unclear, however, is who could succeed Legault as leader of the CAQ, which is a coalition of federalists and nationalists.
The pollsters asked respondents to rate possible successors. Even if deputy-premier Geneviève Guilbault remains the favourite potential leader of CAQ supporters, she does not really dominate the field.
While 23 per cent of CAQ members think she is the right leader, only 12 per cent of the overall population think that.
She is followed by Treasury Board president Sonia LeBel, who comes in at nine per cent with the general population. Eduction Minister Bernard Drainville is at five per cent.
The Léger poll was conducted between June 20-22 and is based on the responses of 1,056 Quebecers. An online poll does not carry a margin of error.
The poll arrives as all the parties gear up for a fresh by-election battle in the riding of Arthabaska.
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