China must strike delicate balance in its approach towards Thai-Cambodian conflict, say analysts

Straits Times

2 days ago

Smoke is pictured in the air as a multi-rocket launcher is fired near the Cambodia-Thailand border in Oddar Meanchey province, on July 25.
CHONGQING – China faces a delicate balancing act as it decides what role it should play in the ongoing border hostilities between Thailand and Cambodia, two Southeast-Asian nations that are its close neighbours and which it wields strong influence over.
Analysts told The Straits Times that while the clash,
which began on July 24 and has so far reportedly left at least 16 dead, could present an opportunity for China to showcase its leadership in the region, the world's second-largest economy is likely to keep to its traditional approach of having the two countries resolve the matter on their own.
It is also likely to first look to Asean as it assesses how it can best help the process along.
But that does not mean that China will not attempt to bring both countries to the negotiating table as the conflict is happening in its neighbourhood, said Professor Fan Lei, an expert on China-Asean relations at China's Charhar Institute, a international relations thinktank.
Asean is China's largest trading partner, representing 16.6 per cent of the world's second-largest economy's overall foreign trade. Total trade between Asean and China reached 1.71 trillion yuan (S$306.26 billion) in 2024, up 7.1 per cent from 2023.
Analysts pointed to how China can play a bigger role in the dispute between Thailand and Cambodia, given that
China is both countries' top trading partner, and thus wields strong economic influence over both states.
Thailand relies on Chinese imports such as machinery, electronics and vehicles. Chinese visitors are also Thailand's top source of foreign tourists.
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Meanwhile, bilateral trade between Cambodia and China grew 26.9 per cent in the first six months of 2025, compared with the same period in 2024, official data from Cambodia showed.
China is a major investor in both Thailand and Cambodia in sectors such as electric vehicles, infrastructure and real estate.
China also conducts separate military exercises with Cambodia and Thailand. In April, Chinese-sponsored upgrades to Ream Naval Base in Cambodia raised concerns about China's growing footprint in South-east Asia.
But China has to tread a delicate balance.
On the one hand, 'China may feel that it should not just sit idly by and do nothing if such military conflict is in its neighbourhood', said Associate Professor Li Mingjiang, an expert on Chinese foreign policy and regional security at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
On the other hand, it has to be mindful not to 'leave the impression it is disregarding Asean', said Professor Zhu Feng, dean at the School of International Studies at Nanjing University.
Already, countries in South-east Asia are wary of China's expanding influence in the region – and its clashes with the Philippines over maritime territorial claims – as they navigate an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape amid intense US-China rivalry.
That is why China is most likely to conduct 'quiet and informal mediation', Prof Li said, adding that he believes 'Chinese diplomats may already be involved in discussions with Cambodia and Thailand, urging them to de-escalate and engage in talks'.
Professor Gu Jiayun, vice-dean at the School of Asian Studies at Beijing Foreign Studies University, said: 'It is in China's interest to keep the peace among its neighbours, given that conflict can hurt the region's as well as its own development prospects.'
Prof Gu said that both Thailand and Cambodia have 'shown restraint in the clash so far, so they might be looking for an out to start negotiations'.
Publicly, Thailand has rejected mediation efforts from third countries to end the ongoing conflict. However, it has signalled that the door will be kept open for Asean to facilitate a return to bilateral negotiations with Cambodia.
Phnom Penh has written to the United Nations for help – the first time in more than a decade that an Asean member state has made such a request.
The latest border dispute escalated sharply on July 24 after a Thai F-16 fighter jet bombed targets in Cambodia on July 24.
Tensions between Thailand and Cambodia have been steaming since May, when a Cambodian soldier was killed during a brief exchange of gunfire near the border in north-eastern Thailand.
Both countries – which share a long history of border disputes that date back to France's occupation of Cambodia until 1953 – have blamed each other for the latest escalation, and downgraded their diplomatic ties on July 23.
During a meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Asean secretary-general Kao Kim Hourn in Beijing on July 25, Mr Wang said that China 'stands ready to continue playing a constructive role in easing tensions (between Thailand and Cambodia) and de-escalating the situation in an impartial and fair manner'.
Calling the latest deadly clash 'distressing and concerning', Mr Wang added: 'China appreciates and supports the proactive mediation efforts of the Asean Chair and encourages the 'Asean Way' to promote dialogue and political resolution.'
Asean's fundamental principles include mutual respect for the sovereignty of all nations, non-interference in the internal affairs of member states, peaceful settlement of disputes, and renunciation of the threat or use of force.
On July 24, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman told reporters at a regular briefing that 'China has and will continue to promote talks (between the two Asean states) for peace in its own way and play a constructive role in promoting de-escalation'.
Prof Fan said that China is likely to draw Cambodia and Thailand into negotiations with economic ways.
This would be in line with the Chinese government's emphasis on cooperative win-win partnerships and non-interference principles regarding foreign diplomacy that are part of China's Three Global Initiatives, he added.
'It is also a possibility that China might encourage Thailand and Cambodia to resolve their dispute at Hong Kong's new international mediation body,' Prof Fan said.
China signed on May 30 a convention to set up an international organisation for mediation in Hong Kong to resolve cross-border disputes among countries and international companies that Beijing hopes can match up to the UN's International Court of Justice.
Analysts noted that China's actions will be a test of its diplomatic strength in the region.
Prof Li said that China has been signalling that 'it does want to gradually play a slightly larger role in the region' that goes beyond traditional security issues.
President Xi's first overseas trip in 2025 amid growing trade tensions with the US was to South-east Asia, where he visited Malaysia, Cambodia and Vietnam for a week in April.
Prof Li said: 'The conflict between Cambodia and Thailand could be an opportunity for China to try out its limited role so far in addressing the security issues in the Mekong region, cautiously, quietly and informally, of course.'