Calculating The Fair Value Of Computershare Limited (ASX:CPU)

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4 days ago

Key Insights
The projected fair value for Computershare is AU$36.24 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
With AU$40.00 share price, Computershare appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
The US$37.55 analyst price target for CPU is 3.6% more than our estimate of fair value
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Computershare Limited (ASX:CPU) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
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Step By Step Through The Calculation
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
US$680.0m
US$675.0m
US$623.2m
US$609.9m
US$606.2m
US$609.0m
US$616.4m
US$627.0m
US$640.2m
US$655.2m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x3
Analyst x3
Analyst x1
Est @ -2.13%
Est @ -0.61%
Est @ 0.46%
Est @ 1.21%
Est @ 1.73%
Est @ 2.10%
Est @ 2.35%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.8%
US$637
US$592
US$512
US$469
US$437
US$411
US$390
US$371
US$355
US$340
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$4.5b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.8%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2035 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$655m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (6.8%– 2.9%) = US$18b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$18b÷ ( 1 + 6.8%)10= US$9.2b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$14b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of AU$40.0, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
Important Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Computershare as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.883. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
View our latest analysis for Computershare
SWOT Analysis for Computershare
Strength
Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness
Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Professional Services industry.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Professional Services market.
Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 4 years.
Threat
Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Australian market.
Moving On:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Computershare, we've put together three further aspects you should explore:
Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Computershare .
Future Earnings: How does CPU's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Australian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.