Michael Saylor's Strategy Has a '91% Chance' at S&P 500 Glory, If Bitcoin Behaves
Michael Saylor's Strategy (MSTR) is closing in on something Wall Street never expected from a Bitcoin-heavy company: inclusion in the S&P 500. According to financial analyst Jeff Walton, there's a 91% chance the firm will qualify by the end of Q2 — if Bitcoin holds the line above $95,240.
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Why that level matters: S&P 500 entry requires companies to post positive earnings across the last four quarters. MSTR has posted losses in the last three. But under new accounting rules, the firm now marks its Bitcoin at market value — meaning if BTC stays high, Strategy's Q2 earnings could flip positive, and the company becomes eligible.
It All Rides on Bitcoin Holding the Line
Bitcoin was trading at $106,200 as of publication. That gives Saylor breathing room, but not much. Walton's analysis found that since 2014, Bitcoin has dropped more than 10% over a six-day span just 8.7% of the time, meaning there's a strong statistical chance the price will hold above $95K into the June 30 deadline.
Every day that passes without a crash increases Strategy's odds:
5 days left: 92.4% chance BTC doesn't drop 10%
4 days left: 93.4%
3 days: 94.5%
2 days: 95.8%
1 day: 97.6%
So long as Bitcoin stays strong, Strategy's quarterly earnings turn green, and the S&P gate swings open.
S&P 500 Braces for Another Crypto Entrant
If it happens, Strategy would be the second crypto-related company to join the S&P 500 this year, after Coinbase's addition in May. For crypto evangelists, it's not just a win for Saylor — it's a step toward full financial system legitimacy.
'This cements the legitimacy of an entire asset class,' said Bitpace CRO Meryem Habibi, summing up what many in the industry are thinking.
It would also mark Strategy's second major index addition, following its entry into the Nasdaq-100 in December 2024.
But a Shock to Bitcoin's Price Could Still Derail It All
A sudden drop in Bitcoin, especially from geopolitical tensions or macro shocks, could still spoil the party. Just last weekend, fears around Iran-Israel conflict knocked BTC below $100K for the first time since May.
If BTC closes below $95,240 by June 30, Strategy's Q2 earnings won't be enough. That would push its S&P eligibility back at least another quarter.
What This Means for Strategy Stock
Strategy's stock has long traded as a high-volatility proxy for Bitcoin, and investors have rewarded it. The firm holds over 592,000 BTC, more than any other public company.
S&P 500 inclusion could bring an influx of institutional money. Index funds would be required to buy MSTR, and the added credibility could give its shares a premium beyond just Bitcoin's price.
But it also puts Strategy more squarely in Wall Street's crosshairs. Higher scrutiny, tighter reporting, and more macro exposure may challenge Saylor's vision of a Bitcoin treasury fortress.
Is MicroStrategy a Good Stock to Buy?
MicroStrategy, now rebranded as Strategy, has drawn strong support from Wall Street analysts. According to TipRanks, the stock holds a Strong Buy rating. 12 out of 13 analysts currently call it a Buy, with just one lone Sell and zero Hold ratings. The average 12-month MSTR price target sits at $524.92—implying a 39.2% upside from the recent close.
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