Investors expect bitcoin to break out to new records in the second half from a consolidation phase

CNBC

3 days ago

Expect bitcoin to reach fresh all-time highs in the second half of the year as corporate treasuries accelerate their bitcoin buying sprees and Congress gets closer to passing crypto legislation, investors say. The cryptocurrency climbed nearly 30% in the second quarter although, strangely, many investors have called it a period of consolidation, with returns declining each month and bitcoin's price remaining in the same narrow range for more than half the three months. It gained almost 15% in the first half of the year, compared to 45% in the same period a year ago. But Bitcoin is ready to fly higher in the second half, investors say, thanks to new cash earmarked for exchange-traded funds and corporate treasury inflows that have helped limit volatility and mostly kept the price above $100,000 since May 9. On Sunday, bitcoin was trading at about $108,000, or roughly 3% below its May record of $111,999, according to Coin Metrics. "There's still an acceleration coming here around ETF adoption, we're in the early days of these treasury strategies – there's more money coming into those," said Devin Ryan, head of financial technology research at Citizens. "The mass adoption and interest of people moving from zero to something is still happening," Ryan added. "These massive barriers restricting ownership have been removed incrementally, but they're still being removed. We're moving closer to the end of the consolidation, and the path is higher from here." Bitcoin treasury companies are a new crop of publicly-traded companies that hold or, in many cases now, plan to hold bitcoin as the primary asset on their balance sheets. Some companies – like Nakamoto, Twenty One and Strive Asset Management – are merging with public companies to allow them to raise capital for bitcoin purchases using equity offerings. "They're waiting on SEC approval on the mergers, so there's way more money that's coming, that's trying to buy bitcoin but has not currently bought it," Steven Lubka, vice president of investor relations at Nakamoto, told CNBC. "So we have not yet seen the full impact of even just the money that's already lined up." While the adoption trend is likely to be the biggest driver of bitcoin performance the rest of the year, the macroeconomic picture is promising too, Lubka said, noting that the market is preparing to see more fiscal spending out of Washington while stocks have been hitting all-time highs and more gains are anticipated . "Bitcoin's maturity as an asset class intersects with a huge amount of capital coming in through new financialization vehicles" – the bitcoin treasury companies – at the same time as "you're going to see a ton of fiscal spending, and you also have an administration that's pro-bitcoin," Lubka said. "These four factors are going to intersect together to produce a pretty material bull market." U.S. policy and regulatory developments may also drive bitcoin in the third quarter, according to Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research. If President Donald Trump names a replacement for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell , it could lead markets to price in earlier rate cuts and might boost investor confidence in the independence of the central bank. BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin year to date The stablecoin bill making its way through Congress, the GENIUS Act , is also likely to pass in the third quarter, which "could encourage more retail investors to make their first investments in digital assets, with bitcoin the prime beneficiary," Kendrick said in a note last Wednesday. Prices "could get choppy" around late September on fears about bitcoin's four-year cycle repeating, Kendrick added. In the typical cycle, starting from each Bitcoin halving , when the supply of new coins is cut in half, the price falls about 18 months later. The most recent took place in April 2024 . Nevertheless, Kendrick said he sees the bull case overriding those concerns and projects bitcoin will rise to $135,000 by the end of the third quarter – and $200,000 by the end of the year. "Some market participants may be concerned that a similar pattern will play out this time, particularly if BTC prices are at or near all-time highs," Kendrick wrote. "The key this time will be whether increased ETF and bitcoin treasury flows are enough to offset any other selling by long-term holders . We think they will be." "Once market concerns about this have passed, we expect bitcoin to continue to rise to our end-Q4 forecast," he added. —CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.