India-Pakistan: conflict with no clear winner

The Star

14-05-2025

PARIS: A ceasefire between India and Pakistan has calmed fears of all-out war and despite conflicting claims, experts say no clear victor emerged in the brief conflict between the nuclear-armed foes.
- No clear winner -
Both South Asian countries claim to have achieved their goals in their worst conflict since 1999, without admitting significant losses.
Four days of intense fighting began last Wednesday (May 7) when India launched strikes against what it described as "terrorist infrastructure" in Pakistan.
India claims Pakistan backs the militants it says were behind an April attack in which 26 people were killed in Indian-administered Kashmir -- a charge Islamabad denies.
"If victory is defined by who lost the most manned aircraft, then India certainly lost this one," said Ashley Tellis of the Carnegie think tank.
"But India also succeeded in effectively interdicting a range of Pakistani surface targets and imposing significant costs on Pakistan," Tellis told AFP.
"Both sides continue to claim air-to-air kills, but clear evidence remains unavailable at the time of writing," said Fabian Hoffmann from the University of Oslo.
"What stands out is the extensive use of conventional long-range strike systems by both sides to target military infrastructure deep within enemy territory, including sites near their capitals," he added.
- Nuclear powers -
While slow to begin with, the international community, including the United States, eventually intervened, alarmed by the possibility of further escalation.
Hoffmann said the bitter foes showed little restraint despite the absence of "deliberate strikes on critical civilian infrastructure".
"Any shift in that direction would... potentially bring the conflict closer to the threshold of nuclear use," said Hoffmann.
The global trend towards violence, especially by states facing internal turmoil, demands greater international vigilance, according to Tellis.
The fact that both countries are nuclear powers "makes the conventional balances all the more important. But the fact remains that neither side has a decisive conventional edge in a short war," said Tellis.
- Drones on the frontline -
Like other modern conflicts, this one confirmed the "widespread" use of drones for warfare, according to Oishee Majumdar from British intelligence firm Janes.
Israel Aerospace Industries' exploding drones Harop and Harpy, as well as reconnaissance drone Heron were used by India, Majumdar told AFP.
According to specialist site Military Balance, India also deployed Indian drones Nishant and Drishti.
Indian media said New Delhi also used French SCALP and Indian BrahMos cruise missiles, and AASM Hammer bombs developed by France's Safran.
The Pakistani army used Songar drones developed by Turkey's Asisguard, according to Janes.
Military Balance said Islamabad was also armed with Chinese combat and reconnaissance drones -- CH-3 and CH-4, Wing Loong -- and Turkey's Akinci and TB2 drones.
- Chinese neutrality? -
At the start of the conflict, China urged restraint from both sides and promised to play a "constructive role".
But experts say Beijing has clearly picked a side. China said it considered Pakistan an "ironclad friend" and that it "understands Pakistan's legitimate security concerns", said Chietigj Bajpaee from think tank Chatham House.
Bajpaee also said that "over 80 percent of Pakistan's arms imports over the last five years have come from China".
"Beijing supplies Islamabad with key systems" including the HQ-9/P surface-to-air missile system, the LY-80 medium-range air defence and FM-90 defence systems, said John Spencer, an ex-US army officer and researcher at the Modern War Institute.
But Islamabad's "reliance on Chinese exports has created a brittle illusion of strength", said Spencer, adding that the systems are "designed to provide layered protection" but "failed" against India's strikes last week.
- Rafale jet claims -
Pakistan claims to have shot down five Indian fighter jets, including three advanced French Rafale aircraft, all of which were in Indian airspace at the time. India has not disclosed any losses.
Rafale maker Dassault did not comment.
According to a European military source, it is "very unlikely" that three Rafales were destroyed, but "credible" that at least one was.
Analysts suggest that Indian aircraft were shot down by a Chinese air-to-air missile, the PL-15E, with a range of 145 kilometres (90 miles) in the version acquired by Islamabad, and whose debris was found in Indian territory.
"India lost at least one Rafale to a Pakistani J-10C firing a PL-15 air-to-air missile in an ultra-long-range air engagement," said Carnegie's Tellis.
This type of missile can target a position while remaining undetected "until its own radar is activated a few dozen kilometres away, or a few seconds" from its target, according to a French fighter pilot interviewed by AFP.
"You can't escape it". - AFP