Cambodia is outmanned and outgunned by Thailand: Peace is the only way out — Phar Kim Beng

Malay Mail

2 days ago

JULY 26 — In the jagged terrain of Southeast Asia's fragile borders, the escalating military skirmishes between Cambodia and Thailand risk plunging the region into a crisis that neither side can truly afford.
As artillery fire continues to echo across disputed territories, the military imbalance between the two neighbours has become unmistakably clear. Cambodia is outmanned, outgunned, and overwhelmed — and that is precisely why peace, not provocation, must be its path forward.
Thailand's military superiority is not just symbolic; it is overwhelming in both scale and sophistication.
With a defense budget exceeding US$5.7 billion, Thailand commands a force of more than 360,000 active personnel, including 115,000 conscripts.
The Thai army boasts around 400 main battle tanks, over 1,200 armored personnel carriers, and more than 2,600 artillery systems.
Its air force is equipped with 112 combat aircraft, including US-made F-16 Fighting Falcons and Swedish Gripens, supported by a fleet of helicopters and unmanned drones.
Contrast this with Cambodia: with a defense budget of US$1.3 billion and just over 124,000 active personnel, its army may be the backbone of the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces, but it lacks the technological edge and strategic depth.
Cambodia operates around 200 tanks and 480 artillery pieces, but it has no fighter jets and relies on transport aircraft, Chinese Z-9 helicopters, and Soviet-era hardware for air mobility and reconnaissance.
Its naval forces are limited to a handful of patrol boats and one amphibious craft, dwarfed by Thailand's navy, which even includes an aircraft carrier.
This imbalance raises the critical question: why would Cambodia engage in a confrontation it cannot win ?
The answer lies in a cocktail of nationalism, economic desperation, and the erosion of trust along a volatile border.
With Cambodia's military still modernizing and the economy deeply entangled in informal and illicit cross-border trades — from gambling syndicates to scam centers — the desire to assert sovereignty and resist Thai incursions may seem politically expedient, but it is strategically unwise.
Cambodia's former strongman, Hun Sen, and his dynastic successor, Prime Minister Hun Manet, appear locked in a generational dilemma. On one hand, they must project strength to maintain internal legitimacy.
On the other, they face a Thai military establishment that is not only more capable but also enjoys tacit backing from a population hardened by conscription and nationalistic fervor.
Thailand has reportedly used F-16 fighter jets to patrol its border regions, a move that sends a clear message: escalation will be met with overwhelming force.
Yet war is not destiny. The human cost of the current military exchange — which has already claimed civilian lives — far outweighs any conceivable strategic gain.
Beyond the battlefield, the region risks undermining the ASEAN spirit of non-intervention and mutual respect, painstakingly cultivated since the 1976 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. If ASEAN is to remain relevant, it must now act not just as a platform for dialogue but as a mechanism for preemptive de-escalation.
This is where diplomacy must replace artillery. Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, and the Philippines — the founding members of ASEAN — should take the lead in forming an emergency Troika with Laos and the Philippines, the immediate past and incoming ASEAN Chairs, respectively.
Such a mechanism, rooted in ASEAN traditions of quiet diplomacy and consensus-building, could help mediate a ceasefire and initiate demilitarization around the Preah Vihear and Ta Muen Thom temples, the epicenters of tension.
Thailand, too, must show restraint. Military dominance should not breed arrogance.
In fact, the Thai armed forces would be better served focusing on cracking down on cross-border criminal enterprises that harm both nations.
That includes human trafficking rings, cyber scam centers, and illicit border trade — problems that threaten not just Cambodia and Thailand, but the credibility of ASEAN as an emerging economic bloc.
Cambodia, for its part, must criminalize these networks and rein in local warlords and commanders who profit from chaos.
The stakes are too high for brinkmanship. Cambodia is not just facing a military mismatch; it is confronting a strategic abyss. Its lack of air superiority, naval deterrence, and technological parity makes protracted conflict a suicidal proposition. Thailand may win a war of weapons, but ASEAN will lose the war of unity.
Peace is not a sign of weakness. For Cambodia, it is the only rational and moral course left.
Only by embracing de-escalation, demilitarization, and ASEAN-led diplomacy can both nations step back from the edge and prove that Southeast Asia's century will not be defined by old grievances or new wars — but by the courage to choose peace when war seems inevitable.
** Phar Kim Beng, PhD, is Professor of ASEAN Studies at the International Islamic University of Malaysia (IIUM) and the Director of the Institute of Internationalization and ASEAN Studies (IINTAS).
** This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.