Flood-hit dairy farmers are struggling, and it may mean higher milk prices
This is how some cattle emerged from the NSW floods, while hundreds more were washed away.
"The calves were the ones that really took a hit," Croki dairy farmer Craig Emerton said.
"We lost roughly 55 under 12-months-old."
NSW is known for its fresh milk production, and typically cows are milked two or three times a day — every day of the year.
The industry estimates more than 137 dairy farms across the state's Mid-North Coast and Hunter region were impacted by last week's record flooding.
Some farms were isolated, equipment damaged and feed depleted.
If cows were not lost, many are now unwell, suffering from lameness, mastitis and discomfort after missed milkings.
"If they don't start milking again at a certain time, they stop milking," Josh Hack, a farmer and agronomist in Taree, said.
"For these dairy farmers to get up and get going again … They've got no feed, they can't access feed, and now there's no cash flow."
Dairy farmers have been increasingly forced to leave the industry in recent years, partly due to extreme weather, such as droughts, floods, and bushfires.
Already NSW farms declined from 1,725 in 2000 to 452 in 2024, according to NSW government figures.
Now farmers such as Mr Emerton — a fifth-generation farmer who lost dozens of cattle — may be the next to bow out.
"I'm nearly 63. To build this back to what we had last week is going to take five years," Mr Emerton said.
"Do I have it in me physically to do that now? Before this, I had been thinking about retirement."
The impact of the floods could ultimately drive up the cost of milk for consumers with production expected to dwindle.
Eliza Redfern, analysis and insights manager at Dairy Australia, said the challenging weather conditions across the region were having an impact on milk production at varying levels.
EastAUSMilk forecast the flood could cut NSW production by 5 per cent.
The price of milk will be what determines if some farmers survive long-term.
On June 1, the farmgate prices will be set, which is the price paid by suppliers to farmers for milk.
"We're totally reliant on this milk price being released," Port Macquarie dairy farmer Emily Neilson, said.
"If it's not good enough, we're going to lose farmers in droves."
Ms Neilson, whose farm supplies milk to Paul's Dairy, has a confronting few months ahead.
From the outside her paddock looks lush and green, but underneath it's waterlogged.
With winter approaching, it was too late to re-sow.
"We don't know what we're going to feed the cows for the next six months," she said.
Ms Neilson may have to buy extra truckloads of hay bales for her cows and 110 heifers.
"Our feed bill per month, if we have to put everything on hay, will be a minimum of $70,000 a month," Ms Neilson said.
"On the current milk price, our income is around about $65,000 a month. So if the feed bill is $70,000, I can't even pay my staff."
She said currently they were not even receiving 55 per cent of the retail price for milk.
The Dairy Australia outlook released this week was expecting higher farmgate milk prices for the upcoming season.
Whether that gets passed onto consumers depends on retailers.
"The retailers set the price paid for milk and dairy at the supermarket check-out," Ms Redfern from Dairy Australia said.
If consumers don't carry the cost increase, they are often borne elsewhere in the supply chain, she added.
In the short-term, Taree farmer Josh Hack said getting feed to farmers was crucial.
Charity organisations such as Need for Feed were doing a great job, but it would be hard to help the volume of affected farms, he said.
"For some people, this is a 12-month to two-year feed gap."
Before last week's weather event, there were the 2021 floods, followed by years of more unpredictable conditions.
Malcolm Holmes, chair of the NSW Farming steering committee, said dairy farming was an "intense business".
Each farm employs at least three or four staff with dozens more in the community, he said.
But the sustainability of the industry was being questioned in the face of ongoing challenges.
"There's a lot less dairy farmers than there used to be," Mr Holmes said.
"Some areas will bounce back, but I think a number of farmers will really question, 'is this really worth it'?"
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