Bull of the Day: Ero Copper (ERO)

Globe and Mail

11-07-2025

Ero Copper Corp. ERO is a copper producer. With copper prices at new all-time highs, this Zacks #1 (Strong Buy) is expected to see earnings soar by 165% this year.
Ero Copper is a high-growth copper and gold producer headquartered in Vancouver, B.C. but who operates in Brazil. It has a market cap of just $1.5 billion. It's primary asset is a 99.6% interest in the Brazilian copper mining company Mineracao Caraiba S.A., which is a 100% owner of the Caraiba Operations and the Tucuma Operation.
In addition to copper, Ero Copper also owns 97.6% of NX Gold S.A. which owns the Xavantina Operations, a gold and silver mine located in Mato Grosso State, Brazil.
In July 2024, Ero Copper signed a definitive earn-in agreement with Vale Base Metals for a 60% interest in the Furnas Copper-Gold Projected in Para State, Brazil.
Tucuma Operation Achieves Commercial Production as of July 1, 2025
On July 3, 2025, Ero Copper announced that the Tucuma Operation, located in Para State, Brazil, achieved commercial production effective July 1, 2025. The company had long planned for this event in the first half of 2025.
Copper production at Tucuma totaled approximately 6,400 tonnes during Q2, including about 2,000 tonnes of copper produced during the second half of June.
A Big Beat in Q1 2025
On May 5, 2025, Ero Copper reported its first quarter results and easily blew by the Zacks Consensus reporting $0.35 versus the consensus of $0.17.
It has beaten three out of the last four quarters.
At the Caraiba operation, the average C1 cash cost was $2.22 per pound.
At the Xavantina operations, C1 cash costs were $1,100 per ounce with an All-in Sustaining Cost of $2,228 per ounce.
Ero Copper has a streaming agreement with streamer Royal Gold. Total proceeds from that agreement are $160 million as of the end of the first quarter.
It's got cash on hand. At the end of the first quarter available liquidity was $115.6 million, including $80.6 million in cash and $35 million of undrawn availability under the company's senior secured revolving credit facility.
Ero Copper Reaffirmed Full Year Guidance
Ero Copper reaffirmed its full year expenditure guidance of $230 to $270 million.
With the Tucuma Operation now producing commercially, it expects growth in copper production in the second half.
Analysts Are Bullish on Ero Copper for the Full Year
Copper recently hit new all-time highs above $5.50 per pound. Gold has hit new all-time highs in 2025 and is hanging out above $3000 per ounce.
1 estimate has been raised for both 2025 and 2026 in the last week. That has pushed up the 2025 Zacks Consensus Estimate to $2.07 from $2.02. That's earnings growth of 165.4% as the company only made $0.78 last year.
Analysts are bullish on 2026 too. The Zacks Consensus has jumped to $2.78 from $2.61 in the last 7 days. That's earnings growth of 34.1%.
It's volatile on the price and consensus chart, however.
Shares of Ero Copper Rally Big in the Last 3 Months
As you can see from the 5-year price and consensus chart above, it's been a wild ride for long-term investors.
But over the last 3 months, the bulls have been in charge and the shares have rallied big, easily beating even the small cap index, the Russell 2000 (IWM).
Ero Copper is cheap. It trades with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 6.9.
But risks remain. President Trump recently announced a 50% tariff on copper and a 50% tariff on goods out of Brazil. Tune in on the next earnings call, expected on July 31, 2025, to hear from the company.
For those looking for a way to play the record high copper prices, Ero Copper should be on your short list.
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