Why Zohran Mamdani's win matters — and why it doesn't

Politico

11 hours ago

NEW YORK STATE OF MIND — Depending on whom you listen to, Zohran Mamdani is either 'the feeling of dawn after a long night' or 'a 100% Communist Lunatic.' But no matter one's opinion of his politics, a narrative has begun to firm up in the days since the 33-year-old democratic socialist's surprise romp in the New York City mayoral primary: His election represents a watershed moment in national politics.
It's not an idea that's entirely based in reality. It's not even a notion that Mamdani himself seems to foster. Rather, it's an assumption that is largely emanating from outside New York City. The hyperventilation surrounding Mamdani's victory is the provenance of those with only a glancing knowledge of the inner-workings of New York government and politics.
The glow of a victory in a New York City mayoral primary can be intoxicating for election watchers and the pundit class. In a mirror image of our current moment, incumbent Mayor Eric Adams was hailed as a potential national Democratic star after his 2021 election and a repudiation of left-wing politics at the beginning of the Biden era. By March of this year, Adams' star had burned out: His approval rating had dropped to 20%.
It's a familiar story. Before Adams, the last New York mayor to not launch a disastrous and short-lived campaign for president was David Dinkins, whose term ended in 1993 at the hands of an ambitious crime fighter named Rudy Giuliani.
The job, often described as the 'second toughest' in America (after that of president), tarnishes the shine of every occupant of City Hall. The mayor is required to be the leader of a city that at every turn resists caricature and is in a constant state of change. He — and every New York City mayor to date has been a man — must work within an intractable bureaucracy and with state legislators and a governor often intent on stopping his political priorities in their tracks. He has to deal with drivers furious with congestion pricing regulations but also New Yorkers who never bothered to get their driver's license and wake up cursing the MTA. He is forced to represent a city of 8 million on a global stage and host the world's most powerful people while remaining laser focused on solving the deeply diverse and contradictory needs of its shockingly rich and desperately poor residents. The job is perhaps best summed up by a now-famous Onion headline that fictitiously describes former Mayor Bill de Blasio relishing Adams' failures: 'Well, Well, Well, Not So Easy To Find A Mayor That Doesn't Suck Shit, Huh?'
Thanks to those extremes, the New York City mayor's office is no natural launching pad for higher office — even if scores of former residents of Gracie Mansion thought otherwise.
The timing of Mamdani's primary victory in the heavily Democratic city is also playing a role in distorting political reality. New York's mayoral primary always takes place roughly six months after each presidential election, in the media capital of the world. Thus it's among the earliest and most conspicuous barometers measuring the post-election national environment.
In all of Mamdani's national media appearances since the election, he steers questions about the broader implications of his victory back to questions facing city residents. Unlike Andrew Cuomo, the former governor who hinted at his own national ambitions during the primary, Mamdani seems interested in governing the city first, which was part of his appeal. Where he has been willing to engage national media outlets has been on broader questions of strategy — that he won by talking about an affordability crisis. 'I think there's a question of how we return back to what made so many of us proud to be Democrats,' he told ABC News on Wednesday. 'I think it's that focus on an economic agenda, on ensuring that people can do more than just struggle.'
That campaign — the message and the messenger, the slick videos that kept going viral and the way he expanded the electorate — is sure to be studied by national Democrats.
Mamdani enters the general election with little publicly stated interest in higher office. And the city where he's now in pole position to govern remains a good bet to dim his boy wonder shine. But even if the siren call of the national stage at some point becomes impossible to resist, don't expect another vanity run for president by a New York City mayor — the U.S. Constitution wouldn't allow the Uganda-born Mamdani to hold the office.
What'd I Miss?
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— Supreme Court OKs opt-out for LGBTQ+ materials in school: The Supreme Court has sided with a group of parents demanding that their public schools be required to provide notices to opt their children out of certain storybook readings that conflict with their religious beliefs. Today's 6-3 ruling, split along ideological lines, found that Maryland's Montgomery County Public Schools violated parents' First Amendment rights to religious exercise by not giving them advanced notice or an opportunity to opt their children out of certain lessons. The school board had initially allowed parents to opt out of lessons, but the board's policy reversal in the 2023-2024 school year sparked a legal challenge.
— Trump backs away from July 4 megabill deadline: President Donald Trump today backed off the July 4 deadline he set for Congress to pass his megabill, acknowledging the timing could slip as Republicans work through a series of political and logistical hurdles. 'It's not the end-all,' Trump said of the self-imposed Independence Day goal. 'It can go longer, but we'd like to get it done by that time if possible.' The remarks represented a clear softening of the White House's position from just a day earlier, when Trump administration officials insisted the GOP lawmakers pass the domestic policy package within a week despite a series of fresh obstacles. Senate Republican leaders are still struggling to lock down the necessary 51 votes for the bill, amid objections from competing factions over the depth of the legislation's Medicaid cuts.
— Trump says he's 'terminating' all trade discussions with Canada: President Donald Trump said today he is 'terminating' all trade discussions with Canada, effective immediately, because of its Digital Services Tax, and that he would announce new tariffs on the country within the next seven days. 'We have just been informed that Canada, a very difficult Country to TRADE with … has just announced that they are putting a Digital Services Tax on our American Technology Companies, which is a direct and blatant attack on our Country,' Trump said in a Truth Social post. Canada's Digital Services Tax, which imposes a 3 percent tax on large foreign and domestic digital companies that make over C$20 million in revenue, is expected to come into force on Saturday. The tax applies to certain Canadian profits that companies make from online advertising, social media, online marketplaces and the sale and licensing of user data.
— UVA president resigns amid pressure from Trump administration: University of Virginia President James E. Ryan announced his resignation today, a swift response to calls from the Trump administration to step down amid the Justice Department's probe into the school's diversity, equity and inclusion practices. 'To make a long story short, I am inclined to fight for what I believe in, and I believe deeply in this University. But I cannot make a unilateral decision to fight the federal government in order to save my own job,' Ryan said in an email sent to UVA community members, which was shared with POLITICO. Ryan is the latest university leader to come under pressure from the Trump administration, as dozens of other elite universities face scrutiny and pressure from the president to claw back DEI policies.
AROUND THE WORLD
NEW WORLD ORDER — For six months, Donald Trump has upended the global trading order, threatening and announcing tariffs, then easing them to open negotiations, while warning that punitive levies will be reimposed if the terms are not to his liking. With just 13 days until the Trump-imposed deadline to conclude a EU-U.S. deal, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen decided the time for conventional negotiating tactics was over.
She floated the idea that the EU's 27 countries could join forces with 12 members of the Asian-led Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership bloc (CPTPP) — which now includes the U.K. — to form a new world trade initiative. The new grouping would redesign a rules-based global trading order, reforming or perhaps even replacing the now largely defunct World Trade Organization, she said.
Crucially, the U.S. would not automatically be invited.
SHOWING UP — A who's who of European politicians is descending on Budapest in a battle of wills with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, seeking to defy his government's ban on Saturday's Pride parade.
After weeks of silence, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen finally backed the celebrations in a video statement on Wednesday. 'I call on the Hungarian authorities to allow the Budapest Pride to go ahead,' she said. 'To the LGBTIQ+ community in Hungary and beyond: I will always be your ally.'
While von der Leyen will not be there in person to defy Orbán, more than 70 members of the European Parliament do plan to attend.
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RADAR SWEEP
FIXER UPPER — New York City's empty churches are getting a chance at rebirth. Developers are eyeing the buildings, some in neighborhoods 'where a square foot costs roughly the same as an ounce of gold,' to develop apartments and condos. By some estimates churches across the city could be repurposed into homes of nearly 100,000 households. Justin Davidson argues in New York Magazine that the right way to renovate must involve preserving the churches' facade and a neighborhood's cultural history.
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Jacqueline Munis contributed to this newsletter.