Stocks to watch: OCBC, SIA, SGX, GuocoLand, China Aviation Oil, Del Monte Pacific
OCBC : The bank aims to extend an additional S$3.5 billion in loans to serial entrepreneurs in its core markets by 2028 as part of its serial entrepreneur lending programme. This brings the total loan quantum under the initiative to S$5 billion by 2028, and builds on the S$1.5 billion in financing it already extends to over 1,8000 serial entrepreneurs with more than 8,000 businesses across Singapore and Malaysia as at end-2024, OCBC said on Monday. The counter finished 0.5 per cent or S$0.09 higher at S$16.57, before the news.
Singapore Airlines (SIA) : The national carrier on Monday said its proposed joint venture with Malaysia Airlines received conditional approval from the Competition and Consumer Commission of Singapore. The commercial cooperation, which is still subject to regulatory approval from the Malaysian Aviation Commission, will see both airlines cooperate on scheduling, pricing, sales and marketing, expanded codesharing of flights, among other things, on routes between Singapore and Malaysia. SIA shares closed 0.3 per cent or S$0.02 higher at S$7.05, before the announcement.
Singapore Exchange (SGX) : Singapore's equities market got its biggest initial public offering (IPO) of a Singapore real estate investment trust (Reit) in over a decade. This came as NTT DC Reit on Monday launched its IPO and listed over a billion units on the mainboard of the SGX to raise gross proceeds of US$773 million. Shares of SGX ended Monday 0.1 per cent or S$0.01 down at S$15.16, before the news.
GuocoLand : The real estate company announced on Monday that its wholly owned subsidiary, GLL IHT, has priced its second tranche of perpetual securities offering of S$120 million at 4.35 per cent under its S$3 billion multicurrency medium-term note programme. It will be consolidated and form a single series with the first tranche of perpetual securities of S$180 million at 4.35 per cent. The second tranche will be issued at the issue price of 100.429 per cent plus accrued distribution in respect of the period from, and including Feb 25 to (but excluding) Jul 14. Shares of GuocoLand closed 0.7 per cent or S$0.01 lower at S$1.53, before the news.
China Aviation Oil : The company announced that Singapore's Court of Appeal on Monday upheld a prior court decision that dismissed claims made against it by a Swiss bank. The company said it was awarded costs of S$100,000 and that the Court of Appeal's judgment was final and not appealable. The counter finished Monday 1.1 per cent or S$0.01 lower at S$0.915.
Del Monte Pacific : Its subsidiary, Del Monte Philippines, posted a 40 per cent rise in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation to 8.6 billion pesos (S$194 million) compared with the year-ago period. Its total sales grew 14 per cent to 44.2 billion pesos, as global sales jumped 22 per cent, fuelled by exports of fresh pineapple and packaged products. Del Monte Pacific's share price rose S$0.016 or 28.6 per cent to close at S$0.072 on Monday.
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Business Times
4 hours ago
- Business Times
De-dollarisation and shifting safe havens
[SINGAPORE] Donald Trump's second term as US president has reasserted America's economic might with a mix of bombast, brinkmanship, and a brand of economic nationalism that is as familiar as it is destabilising. The recent passage of expansive tax reform has raised serious questions about US debt sustainability; the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a deficit of US$1.9 trillion for this fiscal year alone, with federal debt forecast to climb to 118 per cent of GDP by 2035. Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating to Aa1 is not just a symbolic fall from grace, it marks the twilight of the era of 'risk-free' US Treasuries. Elevated yields at the long end of the yield curve reflect investor anxiety over the sheer scale of US refinancing needs. Trump's tariff war aims to fire on two fronts – checking Chinese expansion and plugging a widening US fiscal gap. But here, too, the math is sobering. Even under the most aggressive assumptions – universal tariffs at 20 per cent – the projected revenue gain is a modest US$185.2 billion, barely sufficient to cover annual debt interest payments. Divergence, de-dollarisation and defensive shifts As we enter the third quarter of 2025, three themes dominate the investment landscape: pragmatic de-escalation in tariff tensions, divergent equity performance, and fiscal headwinds which are negative for government bonds and the dollar – but positive for gold. The abrupt de-escalation of US-China tensions has caught markets off guard. After months of hawkish rhetoric, a US-China trade truce is finally underway. With Republican rifts in his backyard, waning poll numbers, and the need to refinance US$7.8 trillion in debt, Trump's embrace of progressive policies underlines efforts to reframe Republicans as the working-class party ahead of 2026 midterms. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Nevertheless, the damage has been done. Despite rising Treasury yields, the dollar tumbled 10.8 per cent in the first six months of 2025, underscoring the growing scepticism about the greenback's long-term viability as the global reserve currency. Post Liberation Day, gold, long considered a hedge against inflation and uncertainty, has decoupled from its traditional inverse correlation with bond yields. Central bank demand for gold reached 1,045 tonnes in 2024 – 121 per cent above the 2010 to 2021 historical average – signalling a broader de-dollarisation trend that extends beyond geopolitics into fundamental shifts in reserve management. Our strategic positioning reflects these tectonic shifts. US equities remain slightly underweight, primarily due to overstated earnings expectations (11 per cent versus 7 per cent in other developed markets, or DMs) and the dollar's structural weakness. Still, pockets of strength remain. Technology, bolstered by resilient AI demand and Nvidia's recent strong guidance, offers a compelling case for selective exposure. Europe, by contrast, benefits from relative fiscal sustainability and resurgent defence spending. Asia ex-Japan remains a deep-value play, with valuations at a 33 per cent discount to DMs and earnings growth forecast at 12.4 per cent. In fixed income, stagflation risks and long-end volatility have risen. Spikes in long-duration Treasuries and Japanese government bond yields reflect sticky inflation unlikely to subside given tariff uncertainties, labour market constraints, and money supply growth. On both a three-month and 12-month basis, we downgrade DM government bonds to Neutral as higher long-term yields and curve steepening are expected. In credit, stay with quality in the A/BBB bucket and adopt a duration barbell approach with two to three-year and seven to 10-year investment-grade exposure. We like US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), capital securities, and short-duration quality credit. Our two to three-year CIO Liquid+ strategy remains well-positioned for stagflationary conditions. We remain less convinced on high yield given spread-widening risks. In private assets, seek opportunities in middle-market buyouts and growth private equity. Middle-market companies possess lower purchase multiples, providing room for larger future value expansion. Besides, the requirement for lower leverage in middle-market deals augers well for their outlook in a high interest rate environment. Nuclear energy: Igniting Prometheus' atomic flame If the first half of the 21st century has taught investors anything, it is that the future often looks unthinkable – until it happens. Nowhere is this more evident than in nuclear energy. Once a byword for risk and controversy, nuclear power is quietly re-emerging as a compelling investment thematic, driven by a perfect storm of geopolitical, environmental, and technological tailwinds. First, let us consider the state of energy security. With ongoing conflict in the Middle East, tensions in Europe, and the weaponisation of trade routes, dependence on fossil fuels has become a strategic liability. Supply chains built on the whims of energy cartels or vulnerable chokepoints are no longer tenable. While the nuclear supply chain remains imperfect, it offers a viable avenue for energy diversification. Second, climate imperatives are accelerating policy momentum. Carbon taxation will eventually hit the bottom lines of companies, shifting energy demand towards more sustainable forms of power generation. Nuclear power is uniquely placed to deliver consistent, zero-emission energy at scale. For policymakers seeking to hit net-zero targets without sacrificing industrial productivity, nuclear is becoming not just acceptable, but essential. Third, AI and the growing need for processing power will accelerate energy demand at an exponential scale. With commodity trade increasingly encumbered by protectionism, one way to mitigate the inflationary consequence of such demand would be to introduce feasible substitutes such as nuclear power. Fourth, technological innovation is breaking down old barriers. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) represent a leap forward, offering lower startup costs and the option to be developed in locations previously deemed unsuitable for larger nuclear power plants. For investors, the implications are clear. The nuclear theme is no longer niche – it is investable. Opportunities span the full value chain: physical uranium as a commodity play; miners who supply it; utilities with substantial nuclear in their energy mix; and manufacturers of next-generation reactor technologies such as SMRs. Much like gold, nuclear represents a long-term hedge – not against inflation, but against energy insecurity, climate inaction, and geopolitical unpredictability. In a world beset by volatility, the atom may yet prove to be a surprisingly stable investment opportunity. Trump's economic strategy has made waves – some intentional, many collateral. While markets are beginning to price in a world of persistent policy risk, stretched fiscal metrics and shifting trade dynamics, this moment also invites a rethink of long-term portfolio construction and the discipline to heed the timeless adage: Time in the market beats timing the market. The writer is chief investment officer, DBS Bank
Business Times
6 hours ago
- Business Times
New York City casinos could become world's biggest, bidders predict
[NEW YORK] Bidders for three New York City-area casino licences are projecting revenue that would place them among the most lucrative resorts in the world, according to an analysis of their proposals. In Manhattan, the Freedom Plaza project is expected to generate US$2.2 billion in annual revenue in its first year of operation, rising to US$4.2 billion by year 10, while billionaire Steve Cohen's project near Citi Field in Queens is forecast to produce US$3.9 billion annually by year three, according to executive summaries the bidders filed with the New York State Gaming Facility Location Board. Those sums rival some of the world's top casino performers. Las Vegas Sands' Marina Bay Sands resort in Singapore generated US$4.2 billion in total revenue last year. Wynn Resorts' two Las Vegas casinos, the Wynn and Encore, produced a combined US$2.57 billion in revenue in 2024. The Coney, a resort proposed for Coney Island, is the only project that shared specific revenue estimates by source and year. Its backers, including real estate investor Joe Sitt, project US$669 million in table-game revenue and US$754 million in slot-machine revenue in its first year of operation. By comparison, Wynn's two Las Vegas casinos generated US$611 million from table games and US$446 million from slots last year. Eight bidders submitted proposals on Jun 27. Their bids still need approval from groups of state and local officials, and will be summited to the state location board if they pass muster. The board plans to pick the winners by Dec 1. The projects would bring the first full-fledged casinos to America's most-populous city. The bidders are a mix of billionaires, property owners and established casino operators. Three of the proposals are for Manhattan, with the rest in a suburb or outer borough. Revenue estimates are just projections, and the numbers may change as the bidders update their offers later in the process. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Caesars Entertainment has proposed a casino in Times Square that it said would generate US$23.3 billion in gambling revenue alone over 10 years. A spokesperson for the project called it an opportunity to generate 'historic tax revenue' for the city. 'We see all of Times Square becoming the resort, with local restaurants, hotels and Broadway theaters all directly benefiting,' the spokesperson said. The Avenir, from developer Larry Silverstein, projects US$2.5 billion in gambling revenue in its first full year. 'Locating a destination casino in Manhattan will generate the most revenue for the state, according to New York's own independent study,' the Avenir executive summary said. 'It is not in the economic interest of Manhattan to force its tourists to travel to other boroughs to enjoy gaming and its amenities.' A study by consultants Spectrum Gaming Group projected nearly US$2.1 billion in gambling revenue for a hypothetical Manhattan-based casino, with ones in the outskirts generating far less. MGM Resorts International, which operates a slot-machine-only facility in Yonkers, and Genting Group's Resorts World, which has a similar property next to the Aqueduct racetrack in Queens, said their gambling revenue would more than double if they're allowed to add table games like blackjack and sports betting. MGM projected casino revenue of as much as US$1.39 billion annually, while Resorts World said its casino revenue would jump to US$2.2 billion a year by 2027. Projections from eager developers can sometimes get ahead of reality. The first four casinos to open in upstate New York fell short of initial projections, as did a temporary casino Bally's opened in Chicago in 2023, ahead of a bigger resort it's building there. Bally's, which is proposing a casino at a company-owned golf course in the Bronx, is projecting US$1 billion a year in gambling revenue when it opens. It said the resort would generate US$200 million annually in gaming-related taxes. As part of the New York bidding process, candidates will suggest their own tax rates for their casino revenue, a process designed to maximise the state's take. That last step has not happened yet. Two of the New York bidders said they were using the minimum 10 per cent tax rate on table games and 25 per cent rate on slot machines required by the state to estimate their proposed tax contributions. Others did not specify tax rates. BLOOMBERG
Business Times
6 hours ago
- Business Times
Malaysia, Thailand could take biggest hits to growth in Asean from tariff impact: analysts
[SINGAPORE] Malaysia and Thailand are the economies in Asean that are set to take the biggest hits from tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump on Monday (Jul 7), according to analysts. Trump announced tariff rates on 14 countries, and also pushed back the date when tariffs are set to take effect – to Aug 1. His announcement came ahead of a 90-day pause that was to end this week. In April, Trump announced 'Liberation Day' tariffs for the US' trading partners but lowered them to a flat 10 per cent for the duration of the pause. On Monday, he started sending letters out to trading partners but indicated he was going to continue negotiations. For Malaysia, the tariff rate was increased by 1 per cent from the 24 per cent announced in April. It stayed the same for Thailand at 36 per cent. The tariffs announced affect 14 countries, of which nine are in the Asia-Pacific: Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Japan and South Korea. So far, only deals with the UK and Vietnam have been reached. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up OCBC economists said: 'The growth impact following this announcement, if implemented on Aug 1 with no further adjustments to the tariff rates, would suggest that Malaysia's economy takes the biggest hit relative to our current forecasts.' 'Malaysia's unique hit of higher tariffs of 25 per cent from 24 per cent is unexpected. While the official letter from the US is clear that this is not the end of the road for negotiations, the offerings from the Malaysian side could become more constrained,' they added. OCBC lowered its 2025 GDP year-on-year growth forecast for Malaysia from 4.3 per cent to 3.9 per cent, and from 4.3 per cent to 3.8 per cent for 2026. 'Thailand is next in line, and we lower our 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.8 per cent from 2 per cent,' it said. OCBC explained that the hit to growth is more significant for Malaysia because it assumes that all exemptions following the April tariff announcement for semiconductors are no longer applicable. That applies to 43.6 per cent of exports to the US by OCBC's estimates. 'Notwithstanding, all exports to the US, which are primarily electronics and electrical appliances, are now exposed to tariff risks,' it said, adding that the US is one of Malaysia's largest trading partners, accounting for 13.2 per cent of total export share in 2024. Global market intelligence provider BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, also said that Thailand, Malaysia and Cambodia will be the worst hit by the latest tariffs. BMI carried out its forecast based on three different scenarios, where it varied the degree that tariffs would be passed on to US consumers via higher prices, as well as shifting demand from American consumers due to price changes. It found that in all three scenarios, these three countries suffered the worst impacts to their GDP growth. The impacts vary from a hit of between 0.15 percentage point (pp) and 1.72 pp to Malaysia's GDP growth; to a blow of 0.13 pp to 1.5 pp to Thailand's; and to a 0.74 pp to 8.29 pp hit to Cambodia's. US goods imports from Thailand totalled US$63.3 billion in 2024, up 12.5 per cent from 2023, indicated the US Trade Representative office. The US goods trade deficit with Thailand was US$45.6 billion in 2024, an 11.7 per cent increase over 2023. Imports from Malaysia were US$52.5 billion in 2024, up 13.7 per cent from 2023. The US trade deficit with Malaysia was US$24.8 billion in 2024, a 7.6 per cent decrease over 2023. US imports from Cambodia were US$12.7 billion in 2024, up 9.3 per cent from the year before. The US goods trade deficit with Cambodia was US$12.3 billion in 2024, a 9.4 per cent year-on-year increase. Meanwhile, Vietnam appears to have the relatively better deal among countries in Asean, analysts said. Its tariff rate has been negotiated down to 20 per cent – from the initial 46 per cent rate – but there is a 40 per cent levy on transhipments through Vietnam from third countries. OCBC in the Tuesday note said that by contrast, it is raising its 2025 GDP year-on-year growth forecast for Vietnam from 5.5 per cent to 6.3 per cent. Impact on markets, inflation Analysts also warned on Tuesday that the risk of higher inflation will return if tariffs stick around – as opposed to it being just a negotiation tactic by Trump. 'It's probably time to start pricing back in the trade risks that were priced out far too quickly... Trump isn't chickening out, and inflation is knocking on the door,' said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. 'One reason why the tariff-led price pressures were initially contained is that many companies chose to swallow the costs while waiting to see if the tariffs were just a negotiation tactic. But if the tariffs are here to stay – and are constantly changing – businesses will have no choice but to (adapt their pricing strategies),' she added. Citing data from Goldman Sachs, she said companies are set to pass on 70 per cent of the tariff costs through higher prices. Arif Husain, head of global fixed income and chief investment officer at T Rowe Price, expects the effects from the tariffs to push inflation higher in the second half of the year. Ozkardeskaya added: 'Prices will rise, earnings will be pressured, the (Federal Reserve) will wait as US growth slows and inflation risks loom – and global investors may increasingly cut exposure to US assets.' BMI, however, said that it remains in Trump's own interest to agree to lower tariffs than the levels that he is threatening. 'He risks further capital flight, which would raise interest costs for the US government and – perhaps more importantly – a spike in inflation, which would spark voter backlash ahead of the midterm elections,' said BMI analysts. Most markets in the Asia-Pacific were muted on Tuesday, and analysts do not expect any big fallout. Singapore's Straits Times Index closed up 0.4 per cent at 4,047.86. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose 1.1 per cent to 24,148.07. China's CSI 300 Index, comprising stocks traded on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, ended nearly 1 per cent higher at 3,998.45. Elsewhere in the region, Japan's Nikkei 225 closed up 0.3 per cent, and South Korea's Kospi finished 1.9 per cent higher. Australia's ASX 200 inched up 0.02 per cent to 8,590.70. Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC, said: 'That Trump is once again engaged in a negotiating tactic rather than making serious tariff threats offers hope to investors.' 'Eventually, the possibility that the tariffs imposed will be nowhere as high as the draconian figures suggested on Apr 2 may bring relief to markets,' he added. Aberdeen Investments is staying 'modestly positive' on equities, across both developed markets and emerging markets, given the macro backdrop of slowing but still positive growth, and ongoing rate cuts. 'That said, the conviction around this positivity is moderate, especially after the rally since the initial pause on the 'Liberation Day' tariffs, and given that developed markets earnings revisions, in particular, have been negative,' the firm's analysts said on Tuesday. Maybank analysts expect the US dollar to remain weaker in the longer term. 'Gradually building up a short US dollar position on rallies in the greenback may be the most sensible and prudent way to express such a view as volatility rises,' they said.
