Epic Battle Between AI Missionaries Versus AI Mercenaries To Achieve AGI And AI Super-Intelligence Is Underway Via Sam Altman And Mark Zuckerberg

Forbes

a day ago

AI talent wars are underway, and the battle is over the AI missionaries versus the AI mercenaries.
In today's column, I examine the epic battle being fiercely waged between the so-called AI missionaries and the AI mercenaries, focusing on the outsized efforts to achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI) and artificial superintelligence (ASI). You may be aware of the commotion via a myriad of big-time banner headlines featuring OpenAI's Sam Altman and Meta's Mark Zuckerberg. They and other AI makers are trying to lock down the topmost AI talent so that the chances of reaching pinnacle AI are heightened.
Let's talk about it.
This analysis of an innovative AI breakthrough is part of my ongoing Forbes column coverage on the latest in AI, including identifying and explaining various impactful AI complexities (see the link here).
Heading Toward AGI And ASI
First, some fundamentals are required to set the stage for this weighty discussion.
There is a great deal of research going on to further advance AI. The general goal is to either reach artificial general intelligence (AGI) or maybe even the outstretched possibility of achieving artificial superintelligence (ASI).
AGI is AI that is considered on par with human intellect and can seemingly match our intelligence. ASI is AI that has gone beyond human intellect and would be superior in many, if not all, feasible ways. The idea is that ASI would be able to run circles around humans by outthinking us at every turn. For more details on the nature of conventional AI versus AGI and ASI, see my analysis at the link here.
We have not yet attained AGI.
In fact, it is unknown whether we will reach AGI, or that maybe AGI will be achievable in decades or perhaps centuries from now. The AGI attainment dates that are floating around are wildly varying and wildly unsubstantiated by any credible evidence or ironclad logic. ASI is even more beyond the pale when it comes to where we are currently with conventional AI.
Stars Are Bright For AI Mega Gurus
How will we reach AGI and ASI?
The answer seems to be that you need top-notch AI developers who can take contemporary AI and somehow advance it into becoming AGI and ASI. Nobody knows exactly how to build AGI and ASI. It's a wild guess right now. Lots of ideas are floating around. Some of those approaches might be the magic touch, others might be duds. For my in-depth exploration of the paths to AGI and ASI, see the link here.
All in all, a heated talent war is underway.
This might be likened to trying to make a blockbuster movie. Studios and producers often believe that if they can snag the topmost actors and actresses, they will assuredly end up with a huge box office success. Of course, there have been many movies that utterly bombed, despite having a roster of the most bankable stars of that era.
Top talent alone is not necessarily a guarantee of success. At the same time, a cogent argument can be made that you are likely reducing risk and upping the odds of success by at least securing the best of the best. As the old saying goes, hope springs eternal. Likewise, there is a strident belief right now that getting mega-stars in AI will get you to AGI and ASI.
Time will tell.
Two Major Types of AI Mega Gurus
If you listen carefully to the spat between Sam Altman and Mark Zuckerberg on their hiring sprees, you'll notice an undertone of great significance. It goes like this. One loudly contends that they loftily hire only so-called AI missionaries, while the other one is appallingly hiring merely AI mercenaries. This tit-for-tat has become a regular name-tossing affair.
What is this all about?
The present-day viewpoint is that there are some AI developers who, in their heart of hearts, are devoted to achieving AGI and ASI. They are true believers. It is their personal mission to get to AGI and ASI. No hurdle is too high. Nothing will stop them in their frenzied quest. They are AI missionaries.
Meanwhile, there are AI top guns that focus on the money. Which AI maker will pony up the most dough? It's all about making big bucks while the time is ripe to do so. Down the road, perhaps AGI and ASI aren't possible, and the aura of being a top-ranked AI builder won't be worth a plug nickel. Now is the moment to grab the brass ring. These are the AI mercenaries and will gladly pursue AGI and ASI for the right price.
If you were the head of an AI maker and had tons of cash to spend on AI talent, I ask you to consider which path you would take. Would you want to secure the AI missionaries and get their zeal-like missionary juices flowing to attain AGI and ASI? Or would you instead aim for the AI hired-gun mercenaries and have them fueled by dollar signs to work nonstop and arrive at AGI and ASI?
Make your choice.
The Outcome Is Momentous
Did you choose?
Your arduous and agonizing decision will likely determine the fate of your own legacy and the fate of your AI-making firm. If you choose the AI missionaries and they succeed, bam, you did the right thing. Good for you. The same goes for choosing the AI mercenaries. But, if you choose the 'wrong' camp, say you pick the AI missionaries and they flop, but the AI mercenaries turn the tide, you'll be walking around with mud on your face. You made a massively incorrect choice.
Furthermore, tick-tock, the clock is ticking. Some assert that we are nearly at AGI and ASI. Thus, you must make your choice immediately. Put that AI top talent to work. Any delay will give the other side a better chance of getting to AGI and ASI before you do. Being second place in this race is tantamount to being a humiliated loser.
Another vital factor is the marketplace perception of what you are doing.
Here's how that happens. Suppose that top AI talent is lured to your competitor. Aha, that suggests your firm isn't up to the challenging task of arriving at AGI and ASI. You have already lost the battle by not securing the AI sharpies. Those AI insiders must know which place has the right stuff. They are a surefire signal of which AI maker has what it takes to get the job done.
In that sense, regardless of whether any of these top AI builders can really produce AGI or ASI, the mere act of having them at your firm is serving as a barometer right now. You can get a lot of street cred. Whether this has anything to do with eventually arriving at AGI and ASI is somewhat immaterial.
Just tout that you've got the AI mega-stars in your corner, and that alone will boost your stock price and have the marketplace singing great songs of praise. Movie studios do this all the time. Sports teams do the same. The AI makers are astute enough to now play the same game. No need to reinvent the wheel; proceed with well-known gambits that have worked well for millennia.
Opting To Mix And Match
Wait for a second, some exhort, can't you simply hire both the AI missionaries and the AI mercenaries?
That would seem to be the smoothest way to proceed. Rather than making an outright stark bet on one camp, go ahead and bring together both camps. Some of your AI talent will have the mission in their heart and soul. The rest will be there as they gleefully count their coins and watch their crypto accounts grow.
It's the best of both worlds.
Not so, comes the retort. The problem is that those AI missionaries and AI mercenaries are like mixing oil and water. It does not compute. They will detest each other. You are going to have costly employees who will do anything they can to avoid each other. They might even try to undercut each other, deviously messing up each other's AI code or sneakily denying access to needed AI computing resources. Things can get very cutthroat.
You will end up with two separate efforts that are each aiming to arrive at AGI and ASI. This might seem fine, namely that at least you've locked up the talent and your competitor doesn't have them in their midst. If you assume that one camp will succeed, it's perfectly fine that they aren't working in unison. Let them independently do their thing.
A knotty problem with that approach is that sometimes having two warring factions inside a single company can be subtractive rather than additive. Allow me to explain. The AI missionaries will be going head-to-head against the AI mercenaries, and vice versa, and they will cause havoc and splintering inside the firm. Each will be doggedly trying to get resources and insisting that the limited resources must come to them.
The amount of infighting will be off the charts.
Due to the infighting, neither side makes much progress on AGI and ASI. They are nearly fully consumed with the AI hostility scrum that is afoot. Attention is diverted from the crucial and time-sensitive AI efforts at hand. Top AI talent devolves into a scenario reminiscent of the Lord of the Flies.
The False Dichotomy Contention
A twist on this AI talent war is that perhaps some of these AI mega-stars cannot sensibly be siloed into one camp versus the other. Maybe this is a false dichotomy. The revealed logic is as follows. A devout AI developer might believe in their heart that AI is their mission in life, and at the same time be cognizant that there are bags of money to be made.
They are simultaneously an AI missionary and an AI mercenary.
Boom, drop the mic.
Think of it this way. Imagine that you have potentially spent a sizable chunk of your existence studying AI and building AI. During that time, maybe you were making minimal wages as a backroom AI researcher and hadn't yet been discovered or found the limelight. Now, by luck and a splash of skill, you managed to be in the right place at the right time. Some might compare this to the famed tales of starving actors that endlessly auditioned and got nobody-cares roles, and then they were spotted in a malt shop and became a top-dollar acting phenomenon.
It is your moment in the sunshine as an AI developer. Your chance to cash in. And, amazingly, perhaps shockingly, you are able to pursue your life ambitions at the same time. This is a bonanza you could have only dreamed about. You have an innate passion for AI, a burning desire to attain AGI and ASI, along with a financially enriching opportunity that affords you a big house, fancy cars, and tremendous fame.
No complaints on that front.
Potential Ironies Await
The spirited effort to bring together top AI talent and forge them into a cohesive team that will work seamlessly toward attaining AGI and ASI is said to be just one model or approach to the task at hand. For example, there is a case to be made that perhaps a solo AI developer working in their basement or garage will be the first to get to AGI and ASI, see my analysis of this conception at the link here.
Ergo, these maneuvers to get AI stars to form into potentially synergistic teams are for naught.
Since we don't know how to attain AGI and ASI, all manner of paths and angles are totally on the table. Another viewpoint is that AI will get us to AGI and ASI. Yes, all we need to do is tell AI to produce AGI and ASI. No need for humans to labor away at the hill climbing. A few well-devised prompts will generate AGI and ASI. Easy-peasy. For my coverage on the controversy surrounding AI begetting AGI and ASI, see the link here.
There is also the assertion that the most motivational way to attain AGI and ASI is by having AI talent that purposely goes toe-to-toe with each other. If you merely allow top AI stars to be in their own kumbaya echo chamber, they will unknowingly fall for their self-serving assumptions about how to proceed and not openly challenge each other. The best way to get them going is to keep them on edge. Devilishly pit them against each other. Push their buttons. Get their emotions in gear.
That's presumably how you make great discoveries.
Maybe.
Right Direction Or Directionless
Cynics and skeptics clamor that the discordant talent wars over AI developers are mainly about saving face. Little of this has to do with AGI and ASI per se. It's a smoke-and-mirrors ploy.
In the end, all that might happen is that the chosen AI missionaries get rich, and the chosen AI mercenaries get rich, and the AI makers at the time placated the marketplace and shareholders, but AGI and ASI either don't arrive, or it is invented via an alternative path that few gave much credence to. No one will particularly remember the history of things. It will be like water endlessly flowing down a lazy river.
A final thought for now about these thorny life choices.
As Lily Tomlin famously said, 'The road to success is always under construction.' So, too, it seems, is the path to AGI and ASI.