South Korea exports to rise for second month on chip boost; tariff risks loom
Outbound shipments from Asia's fourth-largest economy are projected to have risen 3.5% in March from a year earlier, after a revised 0.7% rise in February, according to a median forecast of nine economists.
Last month, exports barely rose despite favourable calendar effects, as demand in key markets, such as China, the biggest trading partner for South Korea, was hurt amid a global trade war triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs.
Since taking office in January, Trump has introduced tariffs on inbound shipments from China as well as imports of steel and aluminium.
New tariffs on automobiles will kick in from next week, while Trump has also threatened to impose duties on chip imports and prepare reciprocal tariffs against major trading partners.
"With reciprocal tariffs due to be implemented from April, it is difficult to expect a rebound in exports," said Park Sang-hyun, an economist at iM Securities.
Hana Securities' economist Chun Kyu-yeon said: "Downward pressure will be inevitable for the time being as there is a high possibility of South Korea being included in the 'Dirty 15' due to persistent trade imbalances."
In the first 20 days of this month, exports rose 4.5%, led by an 11.6% jump in semiconductors. By destination, shipments to the United States and the European Union rose, but those to China fell.
SK Hynix (000660.KS), opens new tab, the world's second-largest memory chipmaker after Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), opens new tab, said on Thursday some customers had brought forward orders in preparation for new tariffs on semiconductors.
Meanwhile, imports likely rose 2.3% in March, the survey also found, faster than a 0.2% increase in February.
The median estimate for the country's trade balance stood at a surplus of $6.06 billion, wider than $4.15 billion in the previous month.
South Korea, the first major exporting economy to report trade figures each month, is scheduled to release data for March on April 1 at 9 a.m. local time (0000 GMT).
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