High wildfire danger forecast in Oregon, across PNW in July, August, September
One of the driest springs on record combined with a long-range forecast calling for hot and dry temperatures led to the unusually long and widespread high fire danger forecast.
It's not clear whether the entire PNW has ever been at high fire danger for three months straight, officials said.
'The only year that would compare would be 2021, when we came into summer in a very deep drought,' state climatologist Larry O'Neill said.
It's normal for parts of Oregon to be at elevated fire danger across summer, but it's rare to see the entire state in the "red" category.
Jon Fox, a fire meteorologist for the Northwest Coordination Center, said that fine fuels, such as grasses and shrubs, are already far drier than normal.
'The issue is that we don't see any relief in sight,' he said. 'The long-range forecasts are all calling for a real good chance of warmer-than-normal temperatures. It all sets up for a busy fire season.'
O'Neill said the soil dried out, and snowpack melted, about two to three weeks earlier than normal.
'The date of the meltout above 4,000 feet tell us something about how long fire season will be, and this year, it looks like it'll be about two or three weeks longer,' he said.
At this point, with the state primed for ignition, the biggest factors will be the weather patterns that hit Oregon this summer.
If the state gets east winds and dry lightning strikes, it's likely to be a busy and smoky summer. If thunderstorms arrive with more rain, then it could be an average year. But all the ingredients are in place for a busy season, O'Neill said.
Zach Urness has been an outdoors reporter in Oregon for 18 years and is host of the Explore Oregon Podcast. He can be reached at zurness@StatesmanJournal.com or (503) 399-6801. Find him on X at @ZachsORoutdoors and BlueSky at oregonoutdoors.bsky.social.
This article originally appeared on Salem Statesman Journal: High wildfire danger forecast in Oregon, Pacific Northwest all summer
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