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CNBC
an hour ago
- CNBC
How Trump and trade wars pushed Russia and Ukraine into the cold
In heady times — and with trade wars dominating the news agenda — it's easy to forget that Russia and Ukraine's soldiers continue to fight for every inch of frontline territory in Ukraine. Conflict in Gaza, ongoing economic uncertainty in the U.S. and Europe and the shifting geopolitical landscape with strengthening, and opposing, 'axes of power' are also at the fore of global policymakers' minds, pushing more than three-and-a-half years of war in Ukraine down the agenda. It seems increasingly that both Russia and Ukraine are being left out in the cold, with even this week's talks in Istanbul, involving negotiating teams from both sides, barely getting a mention in the media. As things stand, there's an uneasy air when it comes to the direction of the war and prospects for peace. Trump appeared to lose his patience when he stated on July 14 that Ukraine could receive more U.S.-made weapons — as long as NATO allies paid for them — and gave Russia a 50-day deadline to reach a peace deal with Ukraine. If it did not, he said, Russia would face "very severe" sanctions and "secondary" tariffs of up to 100%. Those could hit Russia hard, as well as its remaining trading partners, including India and China, who buy Russian oil and gas, among other commodities. As things stand, Russia has until Sept 2 to show it's serious about a ceasefire and peace plan — on which little progress has been made, despite some agreements over prisoner swaps. Analysts are skeptical that the threat of more sanctions will move Russian President Vladimir Putin to come to the negotiating table in good faith, let alone talk to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. There is a stretch between Trump's demand for a peace deal and any further sanctions, Mykola Bielieskov, research fellow at Ukraine's National Institute for Strategic Studies, said. "The Kremlin is generally banking on the fact that the United States under Trump is incapable of a systematic policy of supporting Ukraine and putting pressure on Russia," Bielieskov told NBC News earlier in July. "Serious secondary sanctions require a willingness to quarrel with China and India, which buy raw materials from Russia," he noted. "Similarly, when it comes to weapons, the speed and volume of supplies here and now matter. Therefore, there are many known unknowns. And I think Russia may believe that the U.S. will not dare to impose secondary sanctions on Russia's trading partners," he added. Ukraine, at the mercy of U.S. and European largesse when it comes to weapons supplies, has shown more willingness to negotiate in recent months, calling, along with Trump, for a ceasefire with Russia that has gone unanswered. It has also shown a willingness to compromise even when it comes to ceding Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory to Moscow if it was granted something of a 'holy grail' for the country: NATO membership. But there has been little sign that Russia, making small but incremental gains on the battlefield due to its sheer force of conscripted manpower and intense drone warfare, would be willing to accept Western-pledged security guarantees for Ukraine, in any form. Making matters worse for Kyiv is growing unrest at a domestic level, with misgivings over ongoing martial law, the lack of elections and the wartime leadership of Zelenskyy. Protests erupted in Kyiv last week amid a backlash against government moves to limit the independence of two anti-corruption agencies. Top EU politicians expressed consternation at the move to outlet Politico, saying it showed a lack of commitment to pursuing European democratic values. Combatting what has been endemic corruption in Ukraine is seen as a prerequisite for EU membership, which Kyiv covets. A government reshuffle in mid-July also fueled accusations that Zelenskyy was concentrating power among loyalists, which could also ignite concerns among Ukraine's international backers and benefactors. Ukraine is entering "a critical phase of internal consolidation amid growing external uncertainty," according to Tatiana Stanovaya, senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and the founder of political analysis firm, R. Politik. "The latest battlefield developments coincide with a new American posture: Donald Trump has opted for tactical delay over decisive engagement, stepping back operationally while transferring financial and political responsibilities to Europe," she said in emailed comments this week. "Kyiv, meanwhile, is using this interlude to recalibrate internally. The recent government reshuffle ... underscores the Zelenskyy administration's intent to reinforce political control and preserve cohesion in the face of mounting pessimism, institutional inertia, and an intensifying labour crisis," she added. Despite increasing Western unease regarding Ukraine's domestic trajectory, Stanovaya noted, "international support is becoming more transactional, geared primarily towards sustaining the front line rather than advancing democratic reform."

8 hours ago
Allianz Life confirms data breach affecting majority of 1.4M US customers
MINNEAPOLIS -- Hackers gained access to personal data on the majority of the 1.4 million customers of Allianz Life Insurance Company of North America, the company confirmed Saturday. Minneapolis-based Allianz Life, a subsidiary of Munich, Germany-based Allianz SE, said the data breach happened on July 16 when a 'malicious threat actor' gained access to a third-party, cloud-based system used by the company. 'The threat actor was able to obtain personally identifiable data related to the majority of Allianz Life's customers, financial professionals, and select Allianz Life employees, using a social engineering technique,' Allianz Life said in a statement. "We took immediate action to contain and mitigate the issue and notified the FBI." The company said its own systems were not accessed, just the third-party's platform. Allianz Life said its investigation is ongoing and that the company has begun reaching out to the impacted individuals. It said the incident involves only Allianz Life in the U.S., not other Allianz corporate entities. In the case of data breaches, a 'social engineering technique' usually involves using trickery to gain access. Spokesman Brett Weinberg said he couldn't provide details because they are still investigating. Allianz Life also reported the breach to multiple other authorities, including the Maine Attorney General's Office. A filing on the agency's website said the company discovered the breach the day after it happened, and that it will be offering those affected 24 months of identity theft protection and credit monitoring. Allianz Life was known as North American Life and Casualty until it was acquired by German conglomerate Allianz SE in 1979 and changed its name to Allianz Life Insurance Company of North America. It has nearly 2,000 employees in U.S., with the majority working in Minnesota, according to its website. It is one of five North American subsidiaries of the Munich-based global financial services group Allianz SE, which says it serves more than 125 million customers worldwide.


Business Insider
9 hours ago
- Business Insider
German Auto Giant Volkswagen (VOW3) Reports $1.5 Billion Hit from U.S. Tariffs
German automotive powerhouse Volkswagen (DE:VOW3) has reported a $1.5 billion hit from U.S. tariffs in this year's first half. Elevate Your Investing Strategy: Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence. The impact of tariffs led to a sharp drop in Volkswagen's second-quarter profit and prompted the automaker to lower its full-year guidance. Europe's largest car manufacturer posted an operating profit of 3.83 billion euros (US$4.49 billion) for the three months ended June 30, down 29% from 5.4 billion euros a year ago. Analysts had expected a second-quarter profit of 3.94 billion euros. Volkswagen reported second-quarter sales revenue of 80.8 billion euros, also missing analyst expectations of 82.2 billion euros. Management blamed the impact of U.S. tariffs for the poor results, highlighting that U.S. import duties cost the company 1.3 billion euros (US$1.5 billion) in the first six months of 2025. Dark Outlook In terms of guidance, Volkswagen said its 2025 operating return on sales is now expected to range between 4% and 5%, down from a previous forecast of 5.5% to 6.5%. Full-year sales are expected to come in line with the level achieved in 2024, compared to a rise of 5% previously. The results come as Europe's automakers struggle with numerous challenges, including rising competition from cheaper Chinese car brands and U.S. President Donald Trump's import duties of 25% on all foreign automobiles. The auto sector is especially vulnerable to U.S. tariffs because of its globalized supply chains and heavy reliance on manufacturing operations outside of America. Is VOW3 Stock a Buy? The stock of Volkswagen has a consensus Moderate Buy rating among nine Wall Street analysts. That rating is based on four Buy and five Hold recommendations issued in the last three months. The average VOW3 price target of €115.20 implies 15% upside from current levels.