RIL Q1 Results Preview: Asian Paints stake sale to trigger up to 88% YoY PAT growth. Check revenue, margin estimates
ADVERTISEMENT Sequentially, performance may be muted due to weakness in the Exploration & Production (E&P) business and a high base in Q4.
Estimates of four brokerages are taken into account viz. Kotak Institutional Equities, Yes Securities, PhillipCapital and Nuvama Institutional Equities.
RIL's Q1FY26 PAT is expected to rise sharply YoY across most estimates. Kotak Equities sees the highest PAT at Rs 28,542 crore, up 88.5% YoY and 47.1% QoQ, factoring in one-time gains from the Asian Paints stake sale.
sees the highest PAT at Rs 28,542 crore, up 88.5% YoY and 47.1% QoQ, factoring in one-time gains from the Asian Paints stake sale. Yes Securities projects PAT at Rs 23,693 crore, up 36% YoY and up 5% QoQ.
PAT at Rs 23,693 crore, up 36% YoY and up 5% QoQ. PhillipCapital expects Rs 22,463 crore, up 22% YoY and down 1% QoQ.
expects Rs 22,463 crore, up 22% YoY and down 1% QoQ. Nuvama sees core PAT at Rs 19,443 crore, up 28% YoY, flat QoQ, excluding exceptional items.
The growth is largely driven by higher earnings in Digital, Retail, and O2C businesses, partially offset by a decline in E&P.
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Revenue trends are seen to be mixed, with YoY growth in some estimates but sequential declines across the board.
ADVERTISEMENT Yes Securities pegs revenue at Rs 2,50,900 crore, up 8.2% YoY and down 4% QoQ
pegs revenue at Rs 2,50,900 crore, up 8.2% YoY and down 4% QoQ PhillipCapital sees topline at Rs 2,45,051 crore, up 5% YoY and down 7% QoQ
sees topline at Rs 2,45,051 crore, up 5% YoY and down 7% QoQ Kotak estimates revenue of Rs 2,29,476 crore in the quarter under revenue (down 1% YoY, down 12.2% QoQ)
estimates revenue of Rs 2,29,476 crore in the quarter under revenue (down 1% YoY, down 12.2% QoQ) Nuvama: Rs 2,21,482 crore, down 4% YoY and down 15% QoQ
The sequential decline is attributed to lower crude oil prices, seasonality in the O2C segment, and weaker E&P output.Consolidated EBITDA is expected to rise across all brokerages, with margin improvement supported by higher contribution from core verticals.
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Yes Securities: EBITDA at ₹45,927 crore, with margin improvement of 158 bps YoY and 154 bps QoQ
EBITDA at ₹45,927 crore, with margin improvement of 158 bps YoY and 154 bps QoQ Kotak: ₹44,738 crore (+15.4% YoY, +2.1% QoQ)
₹44,738 crore (+15.4% YoY, +2.1% QoQ) PhillipCapital: ₹44,592 crore (+13% YoY, +2% QoQ); margin at 18.2%, up from 16.7% YoY and 16.8% QoQ
₹44,592 crore (+13% YoY, +2% QoQ); margin at 18.2%, up from 16.7% YoY and 16.8% QoQ Nuvama: ₹45,020 crore (+16% YoY, +3% QoQ)
Margin expansion is attributed to higher contribution from high-growth, high-margin segments like Digital and Retail.O2C EBITDA is expected to post a strong recovery driven by improved refining margins and better petrochemical spreads.
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PhillipCapital: Rs 15,830 crore, up 21% YoY and up 5% QoQ
Rs 15,830 crore, up 21% YoY and up 5% QoQ Kotak: EBITDA up 19% YoY, 3.5% QoQ despite a refinery shutdown
EBITDA up 19% YoY, 3.5% QoQ despite a refinery shutdown Nuvama: EBITDA to rise 19% YoY, 3% QoQ on stronger cracks and spreads
Refining throughput is expected at 17.8 MMT, with GRMs at $11.7/bbl, said Yes Securities).Digital Services (Jio)Strong subscriber additions and tariff hikes will drive robust digital growth. PhillipCapital: EBITDA at Rs 17,900 crore (+20% YoY, +4% QoQ), ARPU at Rs 211
EBITDA at Rs 17,900 crore (+20% YoY, +4% QoQ), ARPU at Rs 211 Kotak: EBITDA up 20% YoY and 3.7% QoQ
EBITDA up 20% YoY and 3.7% QoQ Nuvama: 19% YoY and 3% QoQ EBITDA growth, ARPU up 15% YoY
Subscriber base is expected to hover around 496–497 million.Retail continues to be a growth driver supported by store additions and better footfalls. Yes Securities: Revenue at Rs 91,380 crore, up 20.8% YoY and 3.1% QoQ while EBITDA margin is seen at 7.6%
Revenue at Rs 91,380 crore, up 20.8% YoY and 3.1% QoQ while EBITDA margin is seen at 7.6% PhillipCapital: EBITDA at Rs 6,570 crore, which may go up 16% YoY while declining 2% QoQ
EBITDA at Rs 6,570 crore, which may go up 16% YoY while declining 2% QoQ Kotak & Nuvama: Retail EBITDA growth of 19–20% YoY, flat to mildly positive QoQ
E&P (Exploration & Production)This segment is expected to drag overall performance due to lower KG-D6 production and weaker realizations.
PhillipCapital: EBITDA at ₹4,500 crore (down 14% YoY, 13% QoQ)
EBITDA at ₹4,500 crore (down 14% YoY, 13% QoQ) Nuvama: EBITDA to fall 10% YoY and 8% QoQ
EBITDA to fall 10% YoY and 8% QoQ Kotak: EBITDA down 7.5% YoY and 6% QoQ
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
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