logo
Tariff worries trigger rupee's steepest fall in nearly three months

Tariff worries trigger rupee's steepest fall in nearly three months

Economic Times3 days ago
Live Events
(You can now subscribe to our
(You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel
The Indian rupee posted its steepest one-day drop since May and hit a five-month low on Wednesday, hurt by worries over steep U.S. tariffs on Indian exports alongside dollar demand from foreign banks and importers.The rupee hit a low of 87.5125 against the U.S. dollar before closing at 87.42, down 0.7% on the day.Traders said that while the Reserve Bank of India likely stepped in to support the local currency, the intervention was not very aggressive.A 20%-25% tariff may be imposed on India's exports in the absence of a trade deal and as the Asian country holds off on offering fresh concessions ahead of Friday's deadline, Reuters reported on Tuesday.U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that a trade deal with India had not been finalised and higher tariffs were possible.Trump's tariff threats, the psychological impact of the rupee breaching the 87 mark, and urgency among importers to hedge before the August 1 deadline has weighed on the rupee, said Dilip Parmar, a foreign exchange analyst at HDFC Securities.If conditions remain the same, the rupee could fall below 88 in the coming weeks, Parmar said. The local unit had hit an all-time low of 87.95 in February.In addition to trade uncertainty, persistent foreign portfolio outflows have also been a pain point for the rupee. Overseas investors have net sold over $1.5 billion of local stocks in July.Caution among importers and the absence of inflows have kept the currency under pressure and that may persist in the near-term, a trader at a foreign bank said.Meanwhile, Asian currencies were trading mixed and the dollar index was little changed at 98.8 as investors await the Federal Reserve's policy decision later in the day.The Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, with the focus on commentary from Chair Jerome Powell and whether the decision is unanimous.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

U.S. employers slash hiring as Trump advances a punishing trade agenda
U.S. employers slash hiring as Trump advances a punishing trade agenda

The Hindu

time13 minutes ago

  • The Hindu

U.S. employers slash hiring as Trump advances a punishing trade agenda

U.S. hiring is slowing sharply as President Donald Trump's erratic and radical trade policies paralyse businesses and raise doubts about the outlook for the world's largest economy. U.S. employers added just 73,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported Friday, well short of the 1,15,000 expected. Worse, revisions shaved a stunning 2,58,000 jobs off May and June payrolls. And the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2% as Americans dropped out of the labour force and the ranks of the unemployed rose by 2,21,000. 'A notable deterioration in US labour market conditions appears to be underway,'' said Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Capital Markets. 'We have been forecasting this since the tariff and trade war erupted this spring, and more restrictive immigration restrictions were put in place. Overall, this report highlights the risk of a harder landing for the labour market.'' Economists have been warning that the rift with every US trading partner will begin to appear this summer, and the Friday jobs report appeared to sound the bell. 'We're finally in the eye of the hurricane,' said Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor. 'After months of warning signs, the July jobs report confirms that the slowdown isn't just approaching—it's here.' US markets recoiled at the jobs report, and the Dow tumbled more than 600 points on Friday. But President Donald Trump responded to the weak report by calling for the firing of Erika McEntarfer, the director of the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the jobs numbers. 'I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY,' Mr. Trump said on Truth Social. 'She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified.' Mr. Trump questioned the big revisions, but they are a standard part of the monthly jobs report. The Labor Department revises its numbers as more data comes in. Particularly since COVID-19, businesses have taken longer to respond to the government's survey on hiring. As more data has come in later than in the past, the potential for large revisions has increased. Revelations in the new data raise questions about the health of the job market and the economy as Mr. Trump pushes forward an unorthodox overhaul of American trade policy. Mr. Trump has discarded decades of U.S. efforts to lower trade barriers globally, instead imposing hefty import taxes — tariffs — on products from almost every country on earth. Trump believes the levies will bring manufacturing back to America and raise money to pay for the massive tax cuts he signed into law on July 4. Tariffs lead to price rise Mainstream economists warned that the cost of the tariffs will be passed along to Americans, both businesses and households. That has begun. Walmart, Procter&Gamble, Ford, Best Buy, Adidas, Nike, Mattel, Shein, Temu, Stanley, Black&Decker, have all hiked prices due to U.S. tariffs. Economists at Goldman Sachs estimate that overseas exporters have absorbed just one-fifth of the rising costs from tariffs, while Americans and US businesses have picked up the lion's share of the tab. Mr. Trump has sowed uncertainty in the erratic way he's rolled the tariffs out — announcing, then suspending them, then coming up with new ones. Overnight, Mr. Trump signed an executive order that set new tariffs on a wide swath of U.S. trading partners that go into effect on August 7, and that comes after a flurry of unexpected tariff-related actions this week. 'There was a clear, significant, immediate tariff effect on the labour market and employment growth essentially stalled, as we were dealing with so much uncertainty about the outlook for the economy and for tariffs,' said Blerina Uruci, chief U.S. economist for the brokerage T. Rowe Price. Still, Uruci said the data suggests we could be past the worst, as hiring actually did pick up a bit in July from May and June's depressed levels. 'I'm not overly pessimistic on the US economy based on this morning's data,' she said, though she does think that hiring will remain muted in the coming months as the number of available workers remains limited due to reduced immigration and an ageing population. 'Because of immigration policy, labour supply growth has nearly ground to a halt,' said Guy Berger, senior fellow at the Burning Glass Institute, which studies employment trends. 'So we're going to have very weak employment growth. And we look like southern Europe or Japan.' Still, with fewer workers available, the economy doesn't need to generate many jobs to soak up the unemployed. That could keep the unemployment rate from climbing much, Berger added. Mr. Trump has sold the tariff hikes as a way to boost American manufacturing, but factories cut 11,000 jobs last month after shedding 15,000 in June and 11,000 in May. The federal government, where employment has been targeted by the Trump administration, lost 12,000 jobs. Jobs in administration and support fell by nearly 20,000. Healthcare companies added 55,400 jobs last month – accounting for 76% of the jobs added in July and offering another sign that recent job gains have been narrowly concentrated. The department originally reported that state and local governments had added 64,000 education jobs in June. The revisions on Friday slashed those jobs to less than 10,000. Those revisions also revealed that the US economy has generated an average of just 85,000 jobs a month this year, barely half last year's average of 168,000 and well below an average of 400,000 from 2021-2023 as the economy rebounded from COVID-19 lockups. The weak jobs data makes it more likely that Trump will get one thing that he most fervently desires: A cut in short-term interest rates by the Federal Reserve, which often — though not always — can lead to lower rates for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have repeatedly pointed to a healthy job market as a reason that they could take time to evaluate how Trump's tariffs were affecting inflation and the broader economy. Now that the assessment has been undercut, it will put more pressure on the Fed to reduce borrowing costs. Wall Street investors sharply raised their expectations for a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in September after the report was released. On Wednesday, the Fed left its key rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting and Powell signalled little urgency to reduce rates anytime soon. He said the 'labour market is solid' with 'historically low unemployment.' But he also acknowledged there is a 'downside risk' to employment stemming from the slow pace of hiring that was evident even before Friday's weaker numbers. The current situation is a sharp reversal from the hiring boom of just three years ago, when desperate employers were handing out signing bonuses and introducing perks such as Fridays off, fertility benefits and even pet insurance to recruit and keep workers. The rate of people quitting their jobs — a sign they're confident they can land something better — has fallen from the record heights of 2021 and 2022 and is now weaker than before the pandemic. Drees Homes, a homebuilder based outside Cincinnati in Fort Mitchell, Kentucky, has hired about 50 people over the past year, bringing its workforce to around 950. Pamela Rader, Drees' vice president for human resources, it's 'gotten a little bit easier'' to find workers. A couple of years ago, Rader said jobseekers were focused on getting more pay. Now, she said, they emphasise stable employment, a better work-life balance, and prospects for advancement

Trump calls India's economy 'dead' – but that makes no sense
Trump calls India's economy 'dead' – but that makes no sense

Time of India

time13 minutes ago

  • Time of India

Trump calls India's economy 'dead' – but that makes no sense

Recently, Donald Trump, the former U.S. President, made fun of India's economy by calling it 'dead.' But that's a strange and silly thing to say. Think about it: An economy is alive as long as people are buying, selling, and trading things — even if it's just one person giving a teabag to a friend in exchange for some biscuits. That's still trade! India has over 1.4 billion people, which means there are tons of trades and businesses happening every second. So how can it be 'dead'? Also, if India's economy was really dead, why is Trump so eager to sell things like soybeans, corn, and butter to India? You don't trade with something that isn't working. He even spent four months trying to make a trade deal — and only gave up when he got frustrated and added extra taxes (called tariffs) on Indian goods. India's economy is actually growing faster than any other big country's right now. That's not what a dead economy looks like. Even countries that aren't growing fast — like Japan — are still very much alive and running. Trump has said strange things before. Once, he told a man his father would be proud 'looking down on him,' thinking the father had passed away. But the man said his dad was still alive. Trump just replied, 'Then he's even more proud!' So when Trump says 'dead,' it might not mean what you think — or it might not mean anything at all. Facebook Twitter Linkedin Email Disclaimer Views expressed above are the author's own.

India unveils first formal rules for drug approval panels in regulatory overhaul
India unveils first formal rules for drug approval panels in regulatory overhaul

Mint

time13 minutes ago

  • Mint

India unveils first formal rules for drug approval panels in regulatory overhaul

New Delhi: India has issued its first formal playbook for how expert panels should vet new drugs, biologics and medical devices—a move aimed at fixing long-standing concerns about inconsistent and opaque approvals that have delayed critical drug launches and eroded industry trust in the regulatory system. The guidelines, issued by the Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO), represent a major overhaul of India's drug approval process and aim to make regulatory decisions faster, more predictable and transparent, according to two government officials and documents reviewed by Mint. The guidelines standardize how Subject Expert Committees (SECs) are formed, how members are selected, and how they must evaluate applications, including the scientific benchmarks and disclosure norms they must follow. The SECs advise the Drugs Controller General of India (DCGI) on whether to clear new drugs, and their decisions have long shaped the trajectory of India's pharmaceutical industry. The CDSCO finalized the guidelines about two weeks ago and circulated them to SEC members for immediate implementation, the officials said. The overhaul follows recommendations from the World Health Organization (WHO), which last year conducted a regulatory review of CDSCO and the office of the DCGI, who heads the organization. The WHO called for stronger transparency and data integrity to align India's system with global standards. India's pharmaceutical industry ranks third globally by volume and 14th by value. It accounts for roughly 20% of the world's generic drug supply and manufactures more than 60,000 products across 60 therapeutic areas. The sector also includes over-the-counter drugs, vaccines, contract manufacturing, biologics and biosimilars. As part of its findings, the WHO urged Indian authorities to implement stronger controls to prevent, detect, and respond to substandard and falsified medical products; to launch a market surveillance program for drug quality monitoring; and to ensure that promotional and advertising claims for medicines are not misleading. These steps are now being implemented by the DCGI and other stakeholders involved in the SEC meetings, according to the officials cited earlier. The SECs play a central role in India's drug approval process, advising the DCGI on whether to approve new drugs, biologics, and medical devices. Each committee includes eight experts—one pharmacologist and seven specialists from research, medical, or regulatory institutions—and requires a four-member quorum to issue recommendations. In the absence of formal guidelines, though, these decisions were often viewed as inconsistent or opaque, delaying product approvals. 'SECs are subject expert committees involved in evaluating approvals of new drugs. Simplification and streamlining the process will help industry in getting drugs approved with predictable speed and more transparency. We appreciate the step taken by DCGI," said Dr. Viranchi Shah, national spokesperson of the Indian Drugs Manufacturers Association (IDMA). Emailed queries to the spokesperson for the health ministry went unanswered at the time of publishing. Clearer mandate, tougher benchmarks According to the guidance document, SEC members must meet strict selection criteria, including a publication record of at least 10 peer-reviewed papers and a citation ratio of 2:1. Experts are appointed for a three-year term and are expected to maintain confidentiality, impartiality, and active participation. Those who fail to attend meetings regularly may be removed. The document specifies that SECs must offer rigorous, science-based evaluations on safety, efficacy, and risk-benefit balance. It outlines the dos and don'ts of deliberations: clinical trial waiver decisions must include clear yes/no recommendations with detailed justifications, and all discussions must remain focused on scientific and regulatory issues, excluding matters such as pricing. 'For new drug and clinical trial applications, the DCGI refers them to the SEC, an expert body that discusses proposals and offers recommendations for approval or rejection. These experts, being external to CDSCO, are not always fully aware of regulatory requirements. This often led to differing, sometimes subjective opinions, a lack of uniformity in decisions, and delays on straightforward matters. Therefore, it's important for the committee to provide uniform decisions, maintain transparency, and offer proper reasoning for approvals and rejections," said one of the two government officials cited earlier, who asked not to be named. The second official added, 'There were persistent discussions during SEC meetings about the absence of a guiding document to regulate or suggest proper functioning. This new guidance note outlines the 'do's and don'ts' for experts. Previously, some companies had even alleged that SEC meetings were not being conducted properly." While officials declined to cite specific past incidents, people familiar with the matter said the lack of consistency and alignment among SEC experts, who advise on key regulatory decisions, had severely affected the functioning of the DCGI in recent years. Industry seeks consistency For years, pharmaceutical companies have raised concerns over the unpredictability of SEC verdicts, especially around clinical trial waivers, which are critical for expediting the launch of generics and biosimilars. The new rules aim to reduce such uncertainty by standardizing decision-making across similar products, unless clear scientific reasons justify a deviation. The document states: 'The SECs are indispensable in the CDSCO's evaluation process due to their specialized expertise, independent perspective and commitment to quality assurance. These committees address complex scientific and regulatory challenges, fostering informed decision-making. By operating transparently and consistently across applications, SECs bolster public trust while safeguarding public health and promoting innovation in the healthcare sector." Public health experts have welcomed the reform. 'Any committee should operate under certain guidance, and it is always beneficial for all members of such a committee to have clarity and a common vision. It's akin to laying down the rules of the game," said Dr. Chandrakant Lahariya, a physician and public health expert. He added: 'The Subject Expert Committee (SEC) is an essential requirement for guiding the drug approvals and other processes in all regulatory bodies. When a new drug is needed, the SEC provides its recommendations to the apex drug regulator. CDSCO is a regulatory organization, and they need guidance from a technical expert committee to make decisions. A regulatory body needs guidance from those who deeply understand the subject."

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store